LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 9, 12:16 PM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion...236
FXUS63 KLMK 091716
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1216 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2024
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Widespread rainfall coming to an end this morning. Scattered
light rain showers linger through the morning.
* Additional rainfall is expected Tuesday and may end as a period
of light snow/flurries Tuesday evening/Wednesday morning.
* Colder and blustery conditions for Wednesday and Thursday with
highs in the 30s and wind chills in the 20s.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2024
Main band of convection has exited the region earlier this morning.
In the wake of that wave of rain, low clouds and an area of drizzle
will move across the region this morning and into the afternoon
hours. Mostly cloudy skies are expected with temperatures remaining
fairly steady in the 53-59 degree range.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 303 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2024
So far, areas along and south of the parkways have seen between
.75" and 1.25". Another .1" to .5" is possible for these areas
before sunrise, but the bulk of the rain has already fallen. The
widespread rainfall is currently along and east of the I-65
corridor, which mirrors where the low level jet core is currently
placed. This feature, and it's associated contributions to forcing
and moisture transport, will be pushing eastward through the
morning. As a result, expect the most widespread precipitation to be
exiting our east around sunrise. From there, the mid and upper
levels dry out rapidly, however we will keep 1000-850 mb moisture in
place. This should be enough to squeeze out some scattered light
rain showers through the morning mainly along and east of I-65.
Overall, expect a drier trend for this afternoon but will likely
keep clouds around. Some shower activity may get going late
afternoon/early evening over southern IN along the surface frontal
boundary, but keeping pretty low pops here. We'll see another mild
day ahead of the front with temps topping out in the 55 to 60 degree
range for most.
After a relative lull in activity from Monday afternoon, we do
expect to see an uptick in activity toward dawn on Tuesday. This
will be as another wave embedded in the deep SW flow aloft moves up
into our region, and enhances the low level moisture a bit. Depth
looks to increase to 1000-700 mb level with an assist from some low
level jetting, and a frontal boundary impinging on the area.
Rainfall amounts will be light, but do have pops increasing to the
scattered to numerous range by sunrise Tuesday. Should see a pretty
tight temperature gradient from NW to SE across our area as the
front impinges from the NW. Look for low to mid 40s across our NW,
and low 50s across our SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2024
Cold front will be approaching the area Tuesday morning as a
secondary sfc low moves along the boundary from the TN Valley into
KY during the day. This will provide light rain showers during the
day as the low moves through followed by the sfc boundary. Upper
trough will deepen over over the central US during the day Tuesday
helping to increase the CAA advection behind the cold front late
Tuesday into Tuesday night. With lingering precipitation behind the
boundary, and depending on how quickly the cold air can catch up with
the precipitation, there could be some light snow or flurries
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The current trend in the
forecast highlights the far eastern portion of the CWA into the Blue
Grass as the best chance for the light snow. Even if there is snow,
amounts would be generally light. Temperatures will be fairly steady
during the day, with mid/upper 40s to near 50 across southern IN and
the Ohio River with mid/upper 50s to even low 60s for areas east and
south of a line from Lexington to Bowling Green. Temperatures drop
quickly behind the front by Tuesday night with lows by Wednesday
morning in the upper 20s to near 30.
Upper trough axis will swing through the Ohio Valley Wednesday as
the upper low works across the Great Lakes. Cyclonic flow around the
upper low and strong CAA will keep clouds around during the day,
along with scattered light snow showers as the trough axis swings
through. Once again, any snow accumulation looks to remain light to
around a coating. Temperatures will be in the the mid/upper 30s but
with a tightening pressure gradient over the Ohio Valley, gusty
winds of 15 to 20 mph will make wind chill values feel like they are
in the 20s.
High pressure will build in on Thursday bringing a return to the
sunshine but the cold air will linger thanks to the west-
northwesterly flow aloft. Highs will be in the 30s with even
locations across southern IN and along the Ohio River struggling to
get out of the 20s. While winds won't be nearly as gusty, wind chill
values will still make feel like it is in the low 20s to even teens
at times. Upper pattern starts to flatten out some for the end of
the week as sfc high pressure moves off to the east into the Mid-
Atlantic on Friday. Southerly flow will increase WAA over the region
allowing highs to warm into the low/mid 40s for the afternoon after
a cold start with lows in the upper teens/low 20s.
Temperatures will continue to warm as we go into the weekend with
highs both Saturday and Sunday in the upper 40s/low 50s. The
deterministic models are more in agreement than they were last night
on the development of a sfc low over the Mid-Mississippi Valley for
Saturday. There remains spacial and temporal difference on placement
of the low and timing of the precipitation but general agreement
that rain showers will work in over the area on Saturday. While some
of the models are slower with this system keeping rain chances
around on Sunday, confidence is currently low given the differences
in solutions.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2024
Widespread rainfall has ended across the region, but some areas of
drizzle will continue, mainly east of I-65 through the afternoon
hours. Look for cigs to remain mainly MVFR with some lowering in
the late afternoon into the evening. Next wave of rainfall looks to
come in overnight with vsbys dropping into the MVFR range due to
showers and cigs falling down into the low end of MVFR range, with
some terminals dropping into IFR. Winds will be primarily
southwesterly this afternoon before backing to the south overnight.
A with to northwest winds is expected later on Tuesday.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM....BTN
AVIATION.....MJ
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 9, 12:16 PM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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