ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 7, 6:36 PM EST524
FXUS61 KILN 072336
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
636 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure south of the region will keep the area dry with a
warming trend through the weekend. A weather system will bring
rain across the area Sunday night into Monday. There will be a a
continued precipitation threat into Tuesday when a cold front
moves through.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A mid level disturbance and its associated surface low pressure
will move southeast across the northern Great Lakes and parts
of southeast Ontario tonight. This system will increase the
surface pressure gradient across the area, along with an
increase in a west/southwest (dry) low level jet. Sustained
south/southwest surface winds will vary, from about 10 mph south
of Ohio River to about 20 mph across our northern zones. Gusts
will mainly be pressure gradient driven given the strong/steep
inversion forecast to develop overnight. This will at least keep
those wind gusts in check (not allowing for stronger winds
aloft to mix down to the surface). Hence, wind gusts will vary
from about 20 mph south of the Ohio River to 30 to 35 mph across
the far north. It will remain dry with only passing higher
level clouds from time to time. Lows will drop into the lower
30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
With the aforementioned system moving away on Sunday, our
region will see a brief return to high pressure at the surface
and aloft. This will result in sunshine and warmer temperatures
as WAA/southwest flow continues. Highs will range from the upper
40s north to the lower 50s south. Clouds will begin to increase
late in the day over the southwest ahead of the next weather
system.
For Sunday night into Monday, a mid level low over the southern
Plains will open up as it ejects northeast across the lower and
middle Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday. This feature will
be accompanied by a moist southerly low level jet. Thus, dynamic
lift and moisture will result in high chances for rain
overnight. Pcpn chances will then diminish/taper off from west
to east on Monday as the system moves east of the area. It will
be milder. After lows mainly in the 40s, highs on Monday will
range from the lower 50s north to the mid/upper 50s south.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Deep moisture is gone by Monday Night but enough lingering low
level moisture and forcing for lift to keep low PoPs of light
rain/drizzle going. The lingering moisture and diminished
pressure gradient will also likely lead to some areas of fog.
Deep moisture will then overspread the area again on Tuesday
associated with a fairly strong wave of low pressure along the
earlier front. Pretty widespread rainfall will accompany this
low with the highest chances east and some mixing with snow is
likely over the northwest 1/2. In fact some of the scenarios
we're looking at suggest a swath of slushy accumulation is
possible generally along and north of a Richmond to
Bellefontaine line. This is something we'll be tracking the next
couple days but for now expect any snow to be brief and moving
out Tuesday Night.
The mid-week period will feature seasonally cold temperatures
and the chance for a few snow flurries. Highs will struggle to
reach the freezing mark over most of the area Wed and Thu with
blustery west and northwest winds. Warmup then begins on Friday
as southerly flow enhances ahead of the next Pacific short wave
to clip through over the weekend. Precipitation looks to be all
rain with this system and for now only scattered light amounts
are expected.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Patchy mid/high level clouds will stream through the region
through the period, although conditions should remain VFR area-
wide through the entirety of the TAF period. The lone exception
to this may be the arrival of some MVFR CIGs toward 06z for the
very end of the KCVG 30-hr TAF.
The main item of interest is going to be some LLWS through
daybreak, with SW LLWS on the order of 40-45kts at times through
about 13z-14z. Sfc winds will increase with the tightening
pressure gradient after about 02z, with SW winds at 12-15kts and
gusts to 20-25kts, expected through about 10z before sustained
winds and gusts slowly subside through the remainder of the
period.
OUTLOOK...IFR CIGs and MVFR VSBYs are expected late tonight
into Monday, continuing through Monday night into Tuesday. MVFR
CIGs will possibly persist into Wednesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Johnstone
AVIATION...KC
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 7, 6:36 PM EST---------------
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