PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 6, 10:37 AM CST702
FXUS63 KPAH 061637
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1037 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- One more day of frigid Arctic cold will be realized today with
start day temperatures in the lower half teens and highs
projected only into the 30s even with full sunshine.
- Temperatures moderate over the weekend into early next week,
followed by another cold blast for the latter half of the
week.
- The two cold and dry periods of the forecast are separated by
wet weather chances from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday.
Storm total average rainfall will range from about a third of
an inch in our northwest to around an inch in our southeast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2024
Temps currently sit soundly in the teens, en route to the lower
teens, even around 10F in our north...as the heart of the cold
air mass/arctic high pressure centers overhead. It shifts slowly
southward and eastward with time, so we've one more day of
frigid cold before our weekend moderation. Highs today will
reach into but not likely get out of the 30s, even with full
sunshine.
Positive H8 temp advection amidst rising upper heights equates
to a weekend warmup, coming just prior to the onset of moisture
advection that will lead to a 48-72 hour period of wet weather
chances opening the new week. That onset has shifted about 6
hours later, for what now looks to be a Sunday afternoon thru
Tuesday event. Normal highs/lows run around 50/around 32F, so
we're right back to those numbers or approaching them by
Saturday, and exceeding them by Sunday. We even sprinkle in some
lower 60s highs for Monday in our south, when dew points make a
marked jump from the 30s to the 50s. We're set up for a nice
rain, but the axis of heavier rainfall has also
shifted...farther to the south and east. We'll now likely fall
in the 1/3 inch (northwest) to about an inch (southeast) average
storm total rainfall range...which should have minimal if any
negative impacts. This system pushes out and is succeeded by
another cold blast, although not quite as frigid as this
one...just returning 40s/20s to us which won't be too unusual
for the 2nd week of December.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1008 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2024
Good flying conditions expected through this TAF issuance as
high pressure remains overhead. Winds are expected to remain
light and variable, before gradually increasing at the very end
of this TAF issuance.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...KC
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 6, 10:37 AM CST---------------
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