JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 29, 11:35 PM EDT121
FXUS63 KJKL 300335 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1135 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below normal temperatures can be expected through the rest of
the work week. But temperatures will then warm over the weekend.
- After a period of mostly dry conditions, it will become
unsettled starting late Saturday into early next week, with
chances of showers and thunderstorms returning.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 PM EDT WED MAY 29 2024
Just a quick update to the grids mainly to add in the current obs
and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. Did also wean the PoPs back to
near zero over the next few hours as the last of the showers
continue to fade out. These minor adjustments have been sent to
the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones and
SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 915 PM EDT WED MAY 29 2024
00Z sfc analysis show high pressure nosing into the area from the
west but not before one last shot at a couple of showers drop
south through eastern Kentucky this evening. These showers will be
drying out and gone within an hour or two with most places
remaining dry. There is another band of clouds accompanying the
showers but these should mostly clear out into the early morning
hours. As a result, a small ridge to valley temperature split can
be expected along with a bit of valley fog. Currently,
temperatures are running in the low to mid 60s most places, but in
the upper 50s for a few of the sheltered spots. Meanwhile, amid
light winds from the north to northwest, dewpoints have dried
into the lower 50s. Did adjust the PoPs and sky cover through the
rest of the evening as well as including the current obs and
trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These adjustments have been sent to
the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones,
HWO, and SAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT WED MAY 29 2024
A surface low is sitting over western PA forcing a cold front
across the forecast area this afternoon. Post-frontal showers and
thunderstorms are moving southward across Ohio and West Virginia
currently as flow becomes more WNW-NNW behind this front.
Expecting these will make their way into eastern KY in the next
few hours. Any thunderstorms that do form should remain sub-
severe, as parameters are not worthwhile with lack of favorable
instability today. Most of the activity will likely be winding
down this evening when diurnal heating is gone.
Patchy fog is likely again tonight with conditions going calm and
cooler temperatures expected. This is mostly for the typical
valley locations with poor drainage winds and any areas that
receive rainfall this afternoon.
Outside of morning fog it looks to be mostly dry for Thursday
under a broad area of high pressure. Below normal temperatures
will continue with highs in the low to mid 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT WED MAY 29 2024
Another dry day with below normal temperatures is expected Friday
under continued high pressure. It will be rather comfortable,
though on the dry side with afternoon RH values in the 20s and
30s across the area.
The change up comes late Saturday as showers and thunderstorms
return and temperatures reach the 80s for some locations. The
system responsible for the return of precipitation will be a low
pressure system that will move eastward out of MO and over IN/IL.
The associated trough looks to extend over the area for much of
the weekend and possibly into Monday, subsequently keeping showers
and thunderstorms in the forecast through that time frame.
Looking out a strong high pressure system over Bermuda will drift
westward just off the coast of the Carolinas. Temperatures look
to heat up starting Monday into mid-week where some locations
could be well into the 80s Wednesday afternoon. There remains a
chance for diurnal showers and thunderstorms each afternoon next
week with daytime heating.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT WED MAY 29 2024
Mainly VFR conditions will be the rule through the aviation
period. Patchy, to areas of, fog will likely develop overnight in
the typical valley spots. Expect most of the stratus or fog that
could impact the terminals to be fleeting or at worst affecting a
site or two for just an hour or two before dawn. Have left that
potential out of the TAF forecast for now, but it will be
monitored through the night. Winds will be light and variable
through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...CORNETT
LONG TERM...CORNETT
AVIATION...GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 29, 11:35 PM EDT---------------
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