MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 30, 6:10 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...109
FXUS64 KMOB 302310
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
610 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024
Cig/vsby along coastal terminals at VFR categories next 24hrs.
Winds light and variable overnight. /10
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 230 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024
A broad upper trough moves off the east coast tonight into Friday,
with weak upper ridging developing over our area. Upper troughing
over the northwestern CONUS this morning drifts east through Friday,
with a southern stream shortwave trough currently over the Four
Corners region becoming slightly more amplified and approaching the
Lower Mississippi River Valley by late Friday afternoon. As was the
case last evening, some of the activity from the showers/storms
currently just to the west of our area could linger into the evening
hours over the western portions of our forecast area, but overall
POPs tonight should be low. At the surface, high pressure centered
along the Mid-Atlantic states will continue to ridge down into our
area, maintaining the mainly east to southeasterly wind flow across
the region. This will keep a somewhat moist airmass in place, with
dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s across our coastal counties
and up into southeast MS (which will be more on the western
periphery of the surface ridge). With the southern stream shortwave
through approaching on Friday, combined with the moisture
(especially western zones), look for low end POPs (generally around
20, possibly 30 percent), with isolated to possibly scattered
showers and storms in those areas again on Friday. Low temperatures
tonight should range from the mid 60s across the interior counties
and in the upper 60s to lower 70s closer to the coast. Some upper
70s along the immediate coast. The heat continues on Friday with
high temperatures climbing into the lower 90s across much of the
interior, with mid to upper 80s along the coast. DS/12
LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024
We roll into a more active and wet period as we head into the
weekend (and potentially into next week).
The trough along the East Coast digs into the western Atlantic as a
ridge slides east of the area over the weekend. Meanwhile, several
rounds of weak shortwaves cruise around the ridge building over
Mexico. A more potent shortwave lifts across the Mid South Saturday
into Sunday with another potent shortwave trough potentially
swinging across the region late next week. Down at the surface, a
surface high builds across the East Coast on Saturday and builds
over the western Atlantic through early next week.
Increasing onshore flow in the lower levels will usher more moisture
into the area, allowing dewpoints to surge into the 70s each
afternoon. Highest coverage of showers and storms is expected on
Saturday, especially across the western portion of the area as a
surface boundary likely nudges inland in that region (furthest from
the influence of the surface high), providing a focus for storms in
the afternoon. Expect showers and storms to ramp up through the
morning on Saturday and persist (off and on) through Sunday. Heavy
rain with high rainfall rates and the slow movement of the storms
may lead to flooding this weekend, especially in urban and poor
drainage areas. The parade of subtle shortwaves continues to roll
through the region next week as north to northwest flow aloft
becomes established overhead. The exact timing of the showers and
storms (likely some MCSs mixed in there) still remains a bit
uncertain given that it hinges on the placement and timing of the
shortwaves moving into the region.
Beach Note: Rip current risk increases to MODERATE on Saturday and
continues through Monday. However, RCMOS probabilities indicate a
high likelihood of a HIGH risk on Sunday and potentially late on
Saturday as well. 07/mb
MARINE...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024
A light diurnal wind flow continues tonight, but becomes more
predominant light to moderate southeasterly on Friday and
continues through most of the weekend. By late Sunday into the
early part of next week a lighter onshore flow returns to the
marine area. Seas generally 2 feet or less through Friday,
increasing slightly Friday night, and then increasing to 4 and
possibly up to 6 feet (well offshore) by mid weekend. Bays
increasing to a light to moderate chop over the weekend. Seas
begin to subside somewhat early next week. Conditions could be
hazardous to small craft this weekend. DS/12
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 68 88 72 84 71 85 71 87 / 10 10 20 70 40 50 20 20
Pensacola 72 87 75 84 73 84 74 86 / 0 10 20 60 40 50 20 20
Destin 73 87 76 84 74 85 74 86 / 0 10 10 40 30 40 20 20
Evergreen 63 90 68 85 67 86 66 89 / 10 20 10 60 40 60 20 30
Waynesboro 64 90 69 84 68 85 68 90 / 20 20 20 80 50 70 20 30
Camden 64 89 69 84 67 85 67 88 / 20 20 10 70 50 60 30 30
Crestview 64 92 69 87 67 87 66 90 / 0 20 10 50 30 50 20 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 30, 6:10 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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