LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 26, 10:37 AM CST ...New AVIATION...781
FXUS64 KLIX 261637
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1037 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 401 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2024
Lots of dynamic processes going on this morning. Having a lot of
dynamic processes does not mean severe storms will break out, that
is just one of the things we discuss and is also different than what
is occurring this morning. Forcing at the sfc is quite high but the
mid/upper high behind this cold front is bridging the southern end
of it as the upper low and attendant trough are lifting out leaving
the front behind. As the upper level flow becomes more parallel in
orientation to the front, the front will slow with time and stall
over the northern gulf this morning. The front can actually be seen
very well in 14-11.2um sat imagery as a rope cloud moving through.
The reason for the rope cloud and no storms is the layer just above
the front is strongly compressive as the high moves in faster than
the front at around 850mb. This subsident inversion will move down
to around 900mb before it stops. we should also see the frontal
inversion somewhere between 1000 and 850mb as it will have passed by
the 12z flight. These different processes are very dynamic but not
with those variables supportive of severe wx. This just leads to
some light showers but no storms. Cloudy day in store as this front
stalls and begins to lift back to the north as a warm front by this
evening. This is when the fcast gets interesting from a fog
standpoint for late tonight/Wed morning. Models are all in agreement
with some type of strat deck moving in during the evening. But they
are all having trouble with the height of this deck. Some are at the
sfc(NBM & CONSShort) and others(all others) are bringing this in as
a strat deck at different levels with the main level seen around 12-
1500ft. This does make us confident in a strat deck developing and
moving in, but we will need to see the level this deck comes in at.
If it can come in above 1kft, the probability of it sitting down to
the sfc is small. But if it comes in <=1kft, the probabilities are
higher. Basically, the lower this deck moves in the higher the prob
of it becoming fog. The conditions needed for "set down" is a very
strong dry subsident layer just above the strat deck, which we will
have and no cloud decks above that, which some of the area will
have/not have. There is some evidence of a deck hanging out around 3-
4kft for areas to the SE part of the CWA but none over the NW two
thirds of the area. This is the area we will show some reduction in
vis at this time since probs will be highest in these areas. But
again, we will need to see the level at which this deck moves in. I
guess, it could make it easy on us and just come in at the sfc and
call it a day. But we all know nothing is that easy in meteorology.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 401 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2024
The next front should be closing in on the area around sunrise Thu.
to visit looks to do so by Thu. There will be a strong thermal
gradient with this front, so those locations that is passes during
the day will begin to lower their temps through the rest of the day.
Most areas should get a few showers with this. And this should bve
the main convective unit. There is the potential for a few elevated
storms, but severe is looking more and more as a non-player. Upper
winds are oriented across the frontal boundary to support layer
lifting(isentropic lift). At the moment, solutions are centered
around this front clearing the area with some cloudiness and light
showers left for the day and possibly night Thu. We could see some
clearing skies by Fri as high pressure settles in. This will hold
through the weekend and possibly into the middle of next week before
return flow starts again.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1035 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2024
MVFR conditions prevail at all area airports. Conditions will
drop to IFR for most area airports, mainly for airports along and
north of I-10/12 for a few hours around daybreak due to patchy fog
conditions. Conditions will improve to MVFR by midmorning for all
area airports. MSW
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 401 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2024
A cold front is moving into the northern gulf waters this morning
and will slow to a stall later this morning. This will bring a
temporary wind shift from SE to N early today before the front moves
back north tonight shifting these wind back to southerly. These
winds are expected to be light around 10kt but some gusts could
reach as high as 20kt. The next front is expected during the day Thu
which should clear the northern gulf with much stronger northerly
winds and cold temps.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 48 74 59 66 / 0 10 50 50
BTR 54 80 64 72 / 0 0 30 50
ASD 53 77 63 73 / 0 0 20 50
MSY 59 78 65 73 / 0 0 20 50
GPT 54 74 64 74 / 0 0 20 50
PQL 52 79 64 78 / 0 0 20 50
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...TE
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 26, 10:37 AM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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