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796 FXUS64 KLIX 251001AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA401 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)Issued at 326 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024So trying to fcast fog production is this hard. Everything is perfect for radiation fog this morning. We have to look at very small scale variations in different variables and these can and do change within minutes to hours or the time scale. Previous model runs had winds remaining up tonight, but we have decoupled which brings that variable in line. These previous runs also had a strat deck at 3-4kft coming inafter daylight today. And this was occurring in these models right up to the midnight run. But this deck is ahead of schedule. Vis has been down temporarily before this deck moves over each site, then immediately rises back to 3+SM as it moves over. This is the only variable keeping fog from forming and trying to fcast where this deck will move dissipate or form is a headache in any fog fcast. We will watch this closely this morning and it will dictate the issuance of a dense fog advisory. No worries for tonight as the environment is setting up for an advective pattern and there are a few variables that are not falling in line for this. There will be the possibility of fog along and just ahead of the frontal boundary as it moves through overnight though. The next thing to look at is sh/ts and to what extent these will play in the fcast. Overall forcing weakens rapidly as this front moves through. Sfc forcing is strong, but there is no support above and the front starts to get capped as it moves through so even the showers that will line the front will start to dissipate while moving through. The probability of thunder is extremely low for all locations. The highest of these numbers(~2%) is found along the front as it starts to move through, basically over the NW section of the area. But i would still be surprised to see any tonight. The front stalls by Tue morning along the coast or just offshore. This will not last long, and the front will quickly do an "about face" moving back to the north as a warm front by Tue evening. This is when conditions could provide a better chance for fog if cloud cover can break.&&.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)Issued at 326 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024The next front to visit looks to do so by Thu. The environment does not look supportive of surface based severe storms, but elevated storms will be likely but whether hail is produced will need to be looked at closer to the event. Upper winds are oriented across the frontal boundary to support layer lifting(isentropic lift). If this were a slower front. At the moment, solutions are centered around this front clearing the area with some cloudiness and light showers left for the day and possibly night Thu. Timing shows the strong CAA with this front moving through during the daylight hours. If this is the case, temps would rise til the front moves in to each location then fall steadily during the day. High pressure will then take over for the weekend with cool temps, dry air and sunny skies.&&.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS)Issued at 326 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024A few terminals may see some tempo IFR or LIFR vis this morning but this will rapidly move in and out of IFR to VFR at times due to the 3-4kft cig moving through. May need to insert a tempo group for this morning for this. Otherwise, VFR should mainly be the rule through the day. Cigs will lower starting this evening from NW to SE and will be at IFR cigs by midnight over the NW and by daylight SE.&&.MARINE...Issued at 326 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024A cold front is expected to rapidly move into the northern gulf waters before stalling and may stay around the nearshore waters Tue. This will bring a temporary wind shift from SE to N early Tue before the front moves back north Tue night. These winds are expected to be very light around 10kt as forcing become less with time causing this front to stall. The next front is expected around Thu which should clear the northern gulf with much stronger northerly winds and cold temps.&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 77 53 67 50 / 0 50 0 0 BTR 82 60 73 55 / 0 40 0 0 ASD 79 61 74 55 / 0 20 10 0 MSY 80 63 73 60 / 0 20 0 0 GPT 77 62 73 57 / 0 20 10 0 PQL 81 61 78 55 / 0 20 10 0 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...TELONG TERM....TEAVIATION...TEMARINE...TE
