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152 FXUS64 KLIX 240940AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA340 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)Issued at 247 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024We haven't seen any strong WAA or MAA yet but today will be a different story as southerly flow will quickly change the environment with warmer temps and dew pts. The only real weather feature to look for here is fog with a radiative component and not enough variables are lining up for production. The moisture variable is there but the thing bringing the moisture...wind is not. So we will need to keep only patchy fog wording for those areas most likely to see it for tonight.&&.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)Issued at 247 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024This moisture loading will occur ahead of the next cold front that should move in very rapidly Tue and stall in the nearshore waters before quickly moving back north as a warm front Tue night due to the tug of the west coast upper trough becoming progressive. The low level forcing is very strong with the Tue front but the upper level support is definitely not there and even weakens further as the front closes in. This should bring only a line of showers to the area with the faint possiblity of a crack of thunder somewhere. The next front to visity looks to do so by Thu. This front also has plenty of sfc forcing. The mid and upper levels do not look supportive for severe storms but upper winds are oriented across the frontal boundary to support layer lifting. If this were a slower front, this would be a classic overunning event. At the moment, solutions are centered around this front clearing the area with some cloudiness and light showers left for the day and possibly night Thu. Strong high pressure will then take over for the weekend with cool temps, dry air and sunny skies. This is the general idea for now anyway.&&.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS) Issued at 247 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024A few terminals may see MIFG conditions with layered fog moving out of marsh areas but this should not have a great impact to runways this morning. VFR conditions thorugh the daylight hours and winds should hold up enough to keep fog to a minimum tonight.&&.MARINE...Issued at 247 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024A sfc high will move east of the area today bringing return flow back to all marine areas. Winds should remain in the 10-15kt range by the start of the week as a new cold front moves closer to the area. This front is expected to rapidly move into the northern gulf waters before stalling adn may stay around the nearshore waters Tue. This will bring a temporary wind shift from SE to N early Tue before the front moves back north Tue night. These winds are expected to be very light around 10kt as forcing become less with time as this front stalls. The next front is expected around Thu which should clear the northern gulf with much stronger northerly winds.&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 73 56 77 55 / 0 0 0 50 BTR 79 60 82 61 / 0 0 0 40 ASD 75 58 80 61 / 0 0 0 20 MSY 76 62 80 64 / 0 0 0 20 GPT 72 61 77 63 / 0 0 0 20 PQL 77 58 82 63 / 0 0 0 10 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...TELONG TERM....TEAVIATION...TEMARINE...TE
