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836 FXUS64 KMOB 290836AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL236 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Saturday)Issued at 236 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024Light overrunning precipitation continues early this morningacross the forecast area as an upper level shortwave moves through. For the most part expect just light rainfall underneath any showers, however nearer the coast a storm or two may develop owing to some residual elevated instability around 100 to 300j/kg rooted above the 2-3km layer. Interestingly enough, a couple storms have exhibited some elevated cores with potential for smallhail. This is thanks to the aforementioned instability along withlong, straight hodographs characterized by 70 knots of deep layershear. Given meager elevated instability, not anticipating anything severe out of these cells, but can't rule out an instanceor two of small hail around pea size in the healthiest cores.Rain quickly moves offshore this morning with much drier airworking its way in by late morning. Temperatures will be much cooler this afternoon topping out in the lower to middle 50's for most locations. Lows tonight are a little bit trickier as we will still have some wind lingering across the southern half of the forecast area in addition to some high level clouds working their way in tonight. Have opted to bump temps up a degree or two for lows but still anticipating freezing temperatures over a majority of the forecast area into the interior portions of our coastal counties. Given this, we have upgraded the Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning for tonight for all locations excluding the immediate coast. Highs Saturday will be a touch warmer as surface high pressure moves in overhead. Expect highs in the middle to upper 50's for most locations. Saturday night will likely be the colder night of the two in the near term period as clear skies settle in and surface high pressure parks over the area allowing for calm winds and idealized radiational cooling. Have leaned heavily on MOS guidance for Saturday nights lows dipping into the middle to upper 20's for most locations, lower 30's near the immediate coast. If the current forecast holds another freeze watch/warning would likely be needed for most locations, perhaps even into the immediate coastal zones. A Low risk of rip currents continues through Saturday night. MM/25&&&&.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)Issued at 236 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 Cold and dry conditions will be in place at the start of the period as a Canadian high pressure system continues to build into the local area. Looking aloft, northwesterly flow will be in placethrough the period as a semi- permanent longwave trough remains over the eastern CONUS. An embedded shortwave rounds the base of this trough on Monday, helping to send a reinforcing shot of cold,dry air into the region. The surface high finally pushes to the east of the local area by Wednesday, allowing for winds to shift from northerly to southerly. This will help to modify the airmass,as warm air advection commences. Another cold front looks to begin approaching the southeast US by the end of the long term. No rain is expected through most of the period. Only a slight chance of showers exists on Thursday for our western counties as moisture values begin to rise due to the ongoing WAA, and the approach of the late week front. Otherwise, the main story will be the cold temperatures expected for the first half of the long term. Highs on Sunday will range from the upper 50s inland to the mid 60s along the coast. After the reinforcing front moves through, highs on Monday and Tuesday will likely stay in the low to mid 50s inland and the upper 50s to near 60 closer to the coast. Lows Sunday night through Tuesday night will range from the mid to upper 20s inland to the mid to upper 30s along the immediate coast. Monday night looks to be the coldest night, with the freezing line likely pushing just south of the I-10 corridor (but staying north of the immediate coastline). Temperatures begin to moderate as we get into Wednesday and Thursday. /96&&.MARINE...Issued at 236 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024Moderate to strong offshore flow continues in the wake of a cold front, persisting through Friday night. Seas continue to build to3 to 7 feet over the open Gulf waters, highest beyond 20nm tonight. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through early Saturday morning. A light to occasionally moderate offshore flowwill persist into early next week. MM/25&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 55 35 58 34 63 35 58 32 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 58 39 59 38 63 39 60 35 / 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 61 41 60 42 64 43 61 38 / 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 55 30 58 26 62 29 55 26 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 54 30 57 27 61 29 55 26 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 53 29 56 27 58 28 52 25 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 58 32 60 27 64 31 60 27 / 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Saturday for ALZ051>060-261-262.FL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Saturday for FLZ201-203-205.MS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Saturday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ630>632-650- 655-670-675.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
