BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 2, 7:01 AM EST912
FXUS61 KBOX 021201
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
701 AM EST Mon Dec 2 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Below normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions early this
week, with the exception of some offshore ocean effect
rain/snow showers. Next chance for precipitation comes late
Wednesday through Thursday, bringing rain or light snowfall. An
even colder airmass moves in Friday and into the weekend,
likely with the coldest air of the season thus far.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Relatively quiet weather continues. Mainly clear skies across
southern New England, except towards the west slopes of the
Berkshires. Some of these clouds may spill over the Berkshires
to the east slopes at times today. Mainly brought temperatures
back in line with observed trends.
Previous Discussion...
Dry air in place across southern New England. Synoptic pattern
has shifted just enough with a low pressure over far eastern
Canada, and a high pressure over TN. This will shift winds move
from the NW, which would drive any ocean-effect showers farther
offshore. Not expecting as many clouds today across most of
southern New England, with perhaps the exception of the outer
Cape late today. Below normal temperatures continue, but not
quite as windy today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Turning even colder tonight, Expecting mainly clear skies for
most of southern New England with rather light winds, nearly
ideal radiational cooling conditions. Low temperatures in the
teens to lower 20s away from the immediate coast should be
common. Despite the sunshine Tuesday, below normal temperatures
will persist.
Cloud cover will be complicated. NW winds and the colder air
should generate ocean-effect clouds. A subtle shift of only 10
degrees in wind direction can either drive these clouds across
the outer Cape, or keep them just offshore. At this time,
favoring partly to mostly cloudy conditions tonight into Tuesday
across the outer Cape.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Continued below-normal temperatures through the end of the
week, trending even colder for the weekend.
* Clipper system will bring light snow accumulations to the
interior and rain/snow mix to the coast.
Weak ridge moves through the region Wednesday sandwiched between
two shortwave systems. Winds turn WSW ahead of the incoming
shortwave and strong clipper system over the Great Lakes.
Temperatures warm into the upper 30s to low 40s Wednesday
afternoon with WAA. Precipitation chances don't start increasing
until Wednesday night, but skies will turn mostly cloudy in the
afternoon due to the WAA.
Confidence continues to increase that a clipper system will
bring light accumulating snow to the interior Wednesday night
into Thursday. The GFS and EURO ensembles continue to show high
probabilities of 70-90% for 1 inch of snow across the interior,
with low to moderate probabilities of 10-40% for 3 inches of
snow. The deterministic NAM, GFS, and EURO also show similar
outcomes with 1-3 inches of positive snow depth change across
the interior. Closer to the coasts, WAA will cause surface temps
to rise above freezing. There may be a rain/snow mix with the
onset of precip Wednesday night, but it will likely transition
to all rain by Thursday morning.
Winds begin to ramp up Wednesday night as a southwest 35-40 knot
925mb LLJ moves over the coastal waters along with a very tight
pressure gradient. Winds start from the SW Wednesday night but
turn west Thursday with the cold frontal passage. Gusts of
30-40 mph are possible Wednesday night into Thursday, with the
NBM showing low probabilities of reaching Wind Advisory
criteria of 46 mph.
Forecast confidence breaks down beyond Friday with large spread
among the deterministic guidance sources. Temperatures behind
the clipper system look to remain unseasonably cold, with highs
in the 30s and lows in the teens Friday into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Tuesday: High confidence.
VFR, though there could be continued ocean-effect clouds at
borderline VFR/MVFR levels across the outer Cape tonight into
Tuesday. More low-end VFR/MVFR cloud bases towards the
Berkshires today as well. Winds turn WNW to NW today, then
persist into Tuesday.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Tuesday Night: VFR.
Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy
with local gusts up to 30 kt. SHRA, SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts up to 35 kt. Chance SHRA, chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Slight
chance SHSN.
Friday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Winds continue to diminish today. Expecting relatively tranquil
boating conditions for this time of year. Slight risk for some
rain showers across the outermost coastal waters tonight, and
again Tuesday afternoon.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers,
slight chance of snow showers.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers.
Thursday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to
14 ft. Rain showers.
Thursday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas
up to 14 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of snow
showers.
Friday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to
11 ft. Slight chance of snow showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/KP
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...KP
AVIATION...Belk/KP
MARINE...Belk/KP
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 2, 7:01 AM EST----------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
