MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 28, 11:31 AM CST ...New AVIATION...245
FXUS64 KMOB 281731
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1131 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1116 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024
The cold front will push south of the coast in the next hour or
two. MVFR cigs will impact the forecast terminals in the wake of
the front through mid afternoon with ceilings improving to MVFR
levels by late afternoon and through the rest of the forecast
period. Patchy light to moderate rain will develop along and
south of the I-10 corridor well after midnight and persist through
early Friday morning. While ceilings are forecast to remain at
VFR levels, brief periods of MVFR visibilities could accompany the
rain. The rain and potential MVFR visibilities should come to an
end by 15z Friday. 34/JFB
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024
Happy Thanksgiving everybody!
The cold front is steadily progressing through the area and is now
pushing east of the I-65 corridor. The front should be south and
east of the region by early/mid afternoon. Only a narrow band of
light showers is accompanying the front at this time. Even though
deep layer shear and instability would be supportive of a few
stronger storms there is a lack of upper level forcing and weak
surface convergence. Therefore, only expect the current light
showers to persist through the frontal passage. Updated the
forecast to remove the mention of thunder through the rest of the
day. Much cooler air will filter in behind the front and locations
north of the front have already seen their highs for the day.
Guidance is beginning to show a better chance of post frontal
rain after midnight tonight through early Friday morning, mainly
along and south of the I-10 corridor. This is due to another
shortwave approaching from the west around the base of the
longwave trough. This feature will increase deep layer lift above
the elevated frontal zone, resulting in the increasing chance of
rain. Any rain that develops should shift east of the region by
mid Friday morning. Forecast has been updated to introduce these
rain chances.
Only other forecast change was to start the Small Craft Advisory
at 6pm as the latest guidance shows north winds increasing to
around 20 kt by this time. 34/JFB
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Saturday
for GMZ630>632-650-655-670-675.
&&
$$
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www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 28, 11:31 AM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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