JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 3, 4:13 PM EST598
FXUS63 KJKL 032113
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
413 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Despite some ups and downs, temperatures will remain below
normal into the weekend. Near normal readings should return by
early next week.
- The greatest potential for precipitation will be with a strong
cold front Wednesday night into Thursday morning, and again as
low pressure passes to our northwest early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 122 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2024
Flurries are diminishing early this afternoon as clouds thin and
begin to break from the north. Still anticipate that high
temperatures will struggle to reach the freezing mark at the lower
elevations and remain in the 20s at elevations above 1,500 feet.
UPDATE Issued at 1018 AM EST TUE DEC 3 2024
Northwest upslope snow flurries continue to fall across much of
the Coalfields and especially the higher elevations along and
southeast of Pine Mountain late this morning. Model guidance
indicates that low-level flow should begin to turn more westerly
by afternoon, ending low-level CAA. This should cause the
lingering flurries to gradually diminish from northwest to
southeast through early afternoon at lower elevations and by mid-
afternoon over the highest ridgetops.
UPDATE Issued at 746 AM EST TUE DEC 3 2024
Extensive low clouds are lingering far upstream and are not being
handled well by the forecast models. Have updated the forecast to
hold onto clouds longer today, but confidence in timing of their
break-up is still low.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 AM EST TUE DEC 3 2024
The shortwave trough aloft which led to light snow developing
Monday evening is departing to the east early this morning.
However, lower level moisture lingers in cold air advection and
upslope flow. The shallow, moist, lower levels with steep lapse
rates are resulting in extensive clouds, and since the moisture
extends to temperatures colder than -10C, a few snow flakes are
still flying. However, with the layer being very shallow and a
lack of upper support, it's only flurries. This scenario will
extend into the day Tuesday. As time goes by and warming occurs,
the layer will dry, flurries will end, and clouds will eventually
break up. This process will also be aided by the easing of cold
air advection.
In fact, low level warm air advection should get underway toward
evening, and then strengthen during the night. This will happen as
surface high pressure passes over and moves to our east, with the
next weather system then approaching from the northwest. The next
system will be a cold front propelled by a very large, deepening
surface low crossing southern Ontario, and supported by a very
strong upper low dropping southeast toward the Great Lakes. The
strength of the system will result in a tight pressure gradient on
Wednesday, which will give increasing southwest winds and
significant warm air advection. After overnight lows in the teens
in many places (especially sheltered valleys), daytime highs
should surge into the 40s despite increasing clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 411 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2024
Overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning, a really potent upper
level low, with abundant cold air will be centered over the Great
Lakes. A surface cold front associated with this low will move
through potions of eastern Kentucky Thursday morning. A tight
pressure gradient will lead to gusty winds through the day Thursday.
Model soundings suggest that abundant momentum transfer will be
available early Thursday morning. This will aid in winds being
transfered from upper levels towards the surface. Winds are
anticipated to be strongest early in the morning, with gusts as high
as 25-30 mph. Winds have been adjusted towards the 5th percentile of
the NBM through the day. Snow showers can be expected with this
frontal passage, putting down a quick half inch of snow. Expect
moments of significantly reduced visibilities with the this frontal
passage. Some snow squall characteristics cant be ruled out at this
time. Wind chills look to range from 5-10 degrees above zero with
this frontal passage, around 7 am or so. Highs will rise into the
upper 20s to low 30s later in the day, with northwesterly winds
remaining 10-15 mph with higher gusts. As the system exits, skies
will clear leading to abundant radiational cooling. Night time lows
will drop into the low teens across much of the area.
Friday, winds will be light and out of the west, with dry conditions
returning to the state and lasting through Saturday. This is due to
a high pressure building into the area. Cooler temperatures will
remain across the area Friday with forecasted highs in the low 30s,
and lows in the teens throughout eastern Kentucky. Saturday, winds
shift out of the southwest leading to warm air advection and
temperatures rising into the mid to low to mid 40s. Lows warm a bit
likely being in the low 30s.
Overnight Saturday into Sunday, a cutoff low over Mexico begins to
progress northeast, bringing with it a bunch of Gulf moisture. Cloud
cover will increase throughout the day, with rain chances increasing
after noon. PWAT will range from 1" to 1.25" Sunday and Monday, as a
front associated with the system has the potential to produce steady
rain each of these days. Showers taper off Tuesday, as the low
progresses east. Highs Sunday through Tuesday will generally warm
into the mid to upper 50s, with lows in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2024
Conditions were primarily MVFR due to ceilings at the start of
the period. Any leftover flurries are ending and clouds should
gradually break up through the remainder of the afternoon allowing
for a return of VFR conditions for the remainder of the forecast
period. Winds will be westerly to variable at around 5 kts or
less this afternoon before becoming light southerly tonight.
Southwesterly winds will increase quickly on Wednesday morning,
strengthening to between 10 to 20 kts with gusts of 20 to 30 kts
possible by 18Z Wednesday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 3, 4:13 PM EST---------------
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