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390 FXUS64 KMOB 280957AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL357 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Friday Night) Issued at 357 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024A massive upper-level longwave trough is beginning to evolve overthe eastern CONUS. As it continues to amplify, an embedded shortwave (currently located over the Lower Mississippi River Valley) is rounding the base of the developing trough. This shortwave is expected to quickly pass to our north across the Tennessee River Valley throughout the morning hours. As it passes,it will help to send a strong cold front through the area. Timingof the front continues to speed up, in that the front should now be through the entire area by the early afternoon hours. Once it passes, a Canadian high will build in from the north, helping to advect in a much colder, drier airmass. Current radar imagery shows a thin, broken line of showers and thunderstorms moving through central Mississippi/Alabama along the cold front. Although the environment out ahead of the front appears favorable for additional storm development and even storm organization (ample moisture, decent instability, and plenty of deep layer shear in place), the biggest limiting factor continues to be the lack of large scale ascent. This is due to the best forcing remaining displaced to the north and quickly lifting further away from the area. In fact, the only forcing mechanism present is convergence along the cold front itself, so therefore, not expecting coverage to increase all that much as the front sweeps through the area. With coverage remaining very low, the overall severe threat is also quite low. If a deeper storm does manage to develop along the line, then gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning cannot be ruled out. We generally dry out in the wake of the front through the remainder of the near term period, although a few isolated showers may attempt to develop along the immediate coastline Friday morning as another shortwave moves to our south. After a very mild morning, temperatures behind the front will plummet. In fact, for most areas west of I-65, we have likely already reached our max temperatures for the day. Lows tonight will drop into the 40s. For Friday, most areas will stay in the mid to upper 50s before dropping significantly into the upper 20s inland to the mid 30s along the coast. Freeze products will likely become necessary Friday night for counties that have yet to drop to below the freezing mark this season. A Moderate risk of rip currents drops to a low risk by tonight. /96&&.SHORT AND LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 357 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024Winter makes its presence known during the short and long termperiods Saturday through Wednesday as a cold airmass pushes into the region Saturday and Sunday, followed up by another reinforcingshot of colder air Monday into Tuesday. Dry weather will prevail through Wednesday with perhaps an isolated shower or two late Wednesday as warmer air and moisture begins to push back north into the area.Temperatures will be quite cold with our coldest airmass of theseason so far expected this weekend into early next week. Expect Saturday night to be in the lower to middle 30's for most locations, coldest over the interior. A reinforcing shot of cold air sends overnight lows plummeting into the middle to upper 20'sover the interior Sunday night and Monday night, with upper 20's to lower 30's elsewhere. We begin to rebound Tuesday night with lows in the lower to middle 30's inland and upper 30's to near 40 along the coast. Frost and freeze products will likely be needed during this period perhaps as far south as our coastal counties. Highs will generally be steady state in the upper 50's to lower 60's Saturday and Sunday, dipping to the middle to upper 50's for Monday in the wake of that reinforcing cold front. Tuesday begins the rebound to highs in the upper 50's and lower 60's, with Wednesday being notably warmer in the middle to upper 60's. A Low risk of rip currents continues through Tuesday. MM/25&&.MARINE...Issued at 357 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024Moderate southwesterly flow will continue through this morning before a strong cold front sweeps through the area during the afternoon hours. Moderate to strong northerly winds will develop in the wake of the front through Friday night, along with building seas offshore. A Small Craft Advisory is in place starting tonight for the local Gulf waters, as well as Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound. Winds and seas decrease on Saturday and a light to moderate offshore flow is expected for the remainder of the weekend. /96&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 70 43 57 34 60 35 64 34 / 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 73 47 59 38 60 40 64 38 / 40 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 77 49 62 41 60 43 63 42 / 40 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 67 43 57 29 59 30 60 28 / 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 65 40 55 28 58 30 60 28 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 64 40 55 28 58 29 60 28 / 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 72 45 60 31 59 29 62 30 / 40 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...None.FL...None.MS...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ630>632-650-655-670-675.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
