MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 27, 11:37 AM CST ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...437
FXUS64 KMOB 271737
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1137 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024
...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024
MVFR to VFR conditions are expected to continue today with a
light southerly wind. Winds turn southwesterly tonight as MVFR to
IFR ceilings return across the area in advance of a approaching
front. Scattered showers and possibly a rumble of thunder or two
will accompany the frontal passage tomorrow morning leading to
temporary reductions in visibilities with any rain. Winds will
turn northwesterly around 10 knots gusting to 15 knots behind the
front heading into tomorrow afternoon. BB/03 &&
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024
Zonal flow aloft will turn
more west-southwesterly tonight into Thursday as a massive upper-
level longwave trough amplifies over the eastern CONUS. Embedded
within the flow aloft, a shortwave is expected to round the base of
the developing longwave trough, quickly passing across the Tennessee
River Valley early Thursday morning. At the surface, a weak cold
front that passed through the area yesterday will quickly surge back
to the north today as a warm front. By tonight, cyclogenesis looks
to occur over the Lower Mississippi River Valley, followed by a
quick ejection to the northeast (following the shortwave aloft). A
trailing, strong cold front will sweep through the area on Thursday,
and with a Canadian high building in behind it, a much colder, drier
airmass will move in by Thursday night.
Dry conditions are expected across the area through this afternoon.
As the warm front lifts through the area and flow aloft gains an
onshore component, PWATs will rise to around 1.2-1.5 inches. This,
along with the shortwave quickly moving to our north, will allow for
scattered showers, and a few thunderstorms, to develop along and
ahead of the approaching cold front, starting late this evening and
into Thursday. Timing of the front has sped up in recent model runs,
with the latest guidance now suggesting that the front will be near,
or east, of the I-65 corridor by noon on Thursday, and east of the
remainder of the CWA by sunset. Although deep layer shear of around
50 knots will be sufficient for storm organization, there still
remains questions with regards to instability and forcing. As far as
instability, lapse rates do seem to steepen just out ahead of the
front, however, the quicker timing of the front will help to reduce
the amount of diurnal heating that could occur (especially for
regions west of I-65). In the end, favorable instability (with
MLCAPEs approaching 1000 J/kg) may be confined to along the front,
with lowering amounts in the warm sector. As far as forcing, the
positive nature of this trough and its progressive movement will
help to limit large scale ascent due to very weak diffluence aloft
and a displaced 850mb LLJ that exits the region too quickly. So
although shear is favorable, and instability is limited, but
present, the lack of ascent may help to limit overall storm coverage
across the area. Therefore, at this time, the severe risk continues
to remain rather low for the local area. Where the best instability,
ascent, and shear overlap (which will likely be right along the cold
front itself), then one or two stronger storms, capable of producing
gusty to marginally severe winds and small hail, could be possible.
With the 850mb jet out of the picture and hodographs mostly straight-
lined, tornadoes are not expected at this time.
Temperatures will be mild through tonight, with highs in the low to
mid 70s and lows only in the 60s. With the front moving through on
Thursday, temperatures will range from the mid 60s over our
northwestern zones to the mid 70s over our southeastern zones. Lows
Thursday night plummet into the 40s. A Low risk of rip currents
today increases to a moderate for tonight and Thursday. The rip
current risk drops back to a low risk by Thursday night and into
Friday. /96
SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 434 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024
A much colder and drier airmass will continue through the period
with highs dipping into the 50s and lows getting as cold as the
upper 20s to low 30s. We will have to monitor into the weekend for
the potential for frost and freeze products for areas that have
not already seen their first frost or freeze. /13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 65 73 44 58 36 58 36 59 / 20 50 10 0 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 67 76 48 59 39 58 40 60 / 20 50 20 0 0 0 0 0
Destin 69 77 51 62 41 61 43 63 / 20 50 30 0 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 63 71 43 56 31 57 30 58 / 20 50 10 0 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 62 67 40 55 30 56 30 57 / 40 50 10 0 0 0 0 0
Camden 62 67 41 54 29 53 29 54 / 40 50 10 0 0 0 0 0
Crestview 63 76 47 60 32 60 30 62 / 20 50 20 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 27, 11:37 AM CST ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...---------------
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