BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 28, 7:13 AM EST500
FXUS61 KBOX 281213
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
713 AM EST Thu Nov 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Another low pressure tracks near the coast today, bringing rain
with some accumulating snow possible at the higher elevations.
Drying out Friday with seasonable temperatures, then colder this
weekend into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages:
* A coastal system will bring mainly rainfall to southern New
England for Thanksgiving
* Potential for light snowfall for higher elevations (above 1
kft), with the highest chances for the Berkshires
Temperatures were rising above freezing already this morning for
most of southern New England. Still have some concerns for
spotty icing of untreated surfaces, at least until air temperatures
get into the upper 30s. The main area of concern remains along
and north of Route 2 in MA. Mainly tweaked to forecast to
reflect observed trends this morning. No significant changes to
snowfall or rainfall at this time.
Previous Discussion...
Will be making lots of fine-tuning adjustments to the forecast
this morning as new observations arrive. Marginal temperatures
to support snowfall, as well as the possibility for some brief
freezing rain. Thus far, these episodes have been fleeting. Not
enough confidence in widespread icing to issue a Winter Weather
Advisory, but will be issuing a Special Weather Statement
shortly to mention that possibility.
Still thinking snowfall will be heaviest at or above 1 kft.
Considered a Winter Weather Advisory for western Franklin
County. However, thinking the snowfall average across the area
will be 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts. That is not
enough for a Winter Weather Advisory. Will be watching closely
through mid-morning, as this would be the most likely time for
accumulating snow. Have already see temperatures start to rise
for some portions of southern New England.
Still expecting precipitation to be well underway by mid-morning.
Did slow the onset timing across the eastern half of our region
slightly based on the last few runs of the HRRR and
NationalBlend guidance.
Precipitation comes to an end from south to north late this
afternoon into this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Low pressure moves offshore overnight, with precipitation
ending this evening. We remain stuck within an overall cyclonic
flow between two cold fronts Friday. Not thinking there will be
enough humidity to result in much more than some lingering
clouds Friday. Dry weather expected with near to below normal
temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Points
* Mainly dry and cold for the weekend and into the middle of
next week.
Another shortwave passes through Saturday, bringing a
reinforcing shot of cold air to the region. High temperatures
Saturday should be in the upper 30s to low 40s, then struggling
to top 40 by Sunday. Overnight lows will likely be some of the
coldest we have seen this season, dropping into the upper teens
to low 20s both Saturday and Sunday night. With mid-level dry
air, not expecting anything more than an isolated rain/snow
showers this weekend with the passing of the shortwave. There
could be some ocean-effect rain/snow showers over the waters
with cold air advecting over warm ocean waters, still in the
50s.
The dry and cold conditions will continue into early to mid next
week as a blocking ridge in the western CONUS and a stalled
trough over the eastern CONUS. High temperatures will likely
continue to struggle to the top 40F, with low 30s in the high
terrain of northwest MA. Overnight lows should remain in the
upper teens to low 20s. Pattern looks to break down the middle
to end of next week with a weak upper-level ridge building in.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Thanksgiving: High confidence on timing, moderate confidence on
CIGS and rain intensity.
Rain moves west to east today, starting around 12z in the west,
and around 15z in the east. Rain should start light, but could
become moderate to heavy at times in the early afternoon. CIGS
start dropping to MVFR, then IFR as the precipitation intensity
increases. Cannot rule out pockets of LIFR, but will likely be
confined to heavy rainfall as the low pulls away.
Thursday night: Moderate Confidence
Rain quickly comes to and end from west to east from 22z to 02z.
CIGS should rapidly rise to MVFR/VFR as rain comes to an end and
winds turn west.
Friday: High Confidence
VFR with decreasing west winds
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in timing, moderate confidence
in CIGS and rain intensity.
Rain will move in mid morning around 15z along with decreasing
CIGS to MVFR. Rain could become moderate to heavy at times this
afternoon. CIGS become IFR with LIFR possible in heavy rain.
Rain comes to an end between 00z-02z tonight with rising CIGS to
MVFR/VFR after 02z. Winds start ESE this morning, but will shift
more SSW as the center of the low passes over in the afternoon.
Winds then shift WNW as the low lifts out of the region and
become gusty up to 30 knots.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Rain will move in around 12z this morning along with decreasing
CIGS to MVFR. Rain could become moderate to heavy at time this
afternoon accompanied by IFR CIGS. Rain comes to an end between
22z-00z with CIGS lifting to MVFR/VFR shortly there after.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance FZRA.
Saturday: VFR. Breezy.
Saturday Night: VFR.
Sunday: VFR. Breezy.
Sunday Night through Monday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Friday...
Low pressure passes over the waters later today into this
evening. Rain develops this morning with periods of poor to
fair visibility. As the low pressure tracks across the SE
Massachusetts (18-00z), winds shift from south to east to
northeast over the course of the day with a few gusts up to
35 kt. Considered a Gale Warning, but thinking the 35 kt gusts
will be marginal, and perhaps not quite as frequent. Maintained
Small Craft Advisories at this time. While winds should diminish
some Friday, seas will take longer to subside across the outer
coastal waters.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance
of rain.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance
of rain.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain.
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain, slight chance of snow.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 7 AM EST Friday for
ANZ232-233-235-237-251.
Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 4 PM EST Friday for
ANZ250.
Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 7 AM EST Saturday for
ANZ254.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST
Saturday for ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/KP
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...KP
AVIATION...Belk/KP
MARINE...Belk/KP
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 28, 7:13 AM EST----------------
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