ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 30, 3:16 AM EST017
FXUS61 KILN 300816
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
316 AM EST Sat Nov 30 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will track east across Kentucky tonight.
This will result in periods of snow for areas along and south
of the Ohio River tonight into Sunday morning. Temperatures will
remain well below normal through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
The low clouds and flurry/snow shower activity are slowly
pinching off from the west and expect this trend to continue
through daybreak. Otherwise, the low level flow will back to the
southwest through the day ahead of an approaching weak low
pressure system. This will result in a fair amount of sunshine
to start the day before we start to see an increase in high and
then mid level clouds through the afternoon. With a cold
airmass in place, temperatures will remain well below normal
with daytime highs ranging from the upper 20s in the north to
the mid 30s in the south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A fast moving mid level short wave will rotate east across the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys tonight into Sunday morning. As it
does a weak low pressure system will track east across Kentucky
through the night. Along and north of the low, an axis of low
level convergence will shift east across our southern areas
overnight. Snow will develop across our southwest early this
evening and then shift east across areas along and south of the
Ohio River through the early morning hours on Sunday.
Models continue to show the highest QPFs across our southern
tier of counties. Given the cold airmass in place, SLRs will be
fairly high, likely on the order of 15:1 or so. This should
allow for snow amounts of 1 to 2 inches along and south of the
Ohio River with some 2 inch plus amounts possible across our far
southern areas. Will therefore go ahead and issue a Winter
Weather Advisory for most of our northern Kentucky counties as
well as Switzerland County Indiana.
As the low moves off to the east, the snow will begin to taper
off from the west late tonight and through Sunday morning across
our southeast. Lows tonight will be in the upper teens to mid
20s with highs on Sunday mostly in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
By Sunday night, broad troughing will remain in place across the
eastern half of the CONUS, with a shortwave moving through the upper
Midwest. The broad trough will dominate the weather pattern through
the extended forecast period, with temperatures below normal the
primary story. There may be a brief warm-up Wednesday and Thursday,
before cold conditions settle in again for Friday and likely beyond.
The shortwave trough moving through the Midwest Monday will provide
a chance for some very light snow showers or flurries Monday through
Monday night. Otherwise, no major precipitation concerns expected
through the first portion of the long term period.
Precipitation chances increase Tuesday night into Wednesday as an
approaching shortwave results in strengthening 850 mb southwesterly
flow. Intense warm air advection supports the potential for
precipitation formation, but low level dry air limits the ability
for more widespread precipitation to form in the otherwise favorable
synoptic scenario. QPF amounts remain fairly low with no more than a
few hundredths across the area. This, along with the incredibly
atypical thermodynamic environment, creates quite the forecast
challenge for Wednesday morning. Any increase in QPF due to better
forcing would likely create a scenario where slick spots would be
possible Wednesday morning. Eventually, the strong southwesterly
flow warms the boundary layer, increasing confidence for a
transition to all rain through mid-morning into the afternoon.
The warm up still appears short-lived as another surge of cold air
moves in for Friday. Confidence in the temperature forecast remains
low however due to the fairly large temperature spread (upwards of
10 degrees difference) within the ensemble guidance. This is likely
linked to the ultimate depth of the trough into the Ohio Valley.
As the mid-week system moves through the area, confidence remains
fairly high (40-50%) that elevated wind gusts within the 25 to 35
mph range occur Wednesday morning into the afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Pesky snow showers and flurries should continue to taper off
from the west over the next few hours, mainly affecting KDAY
and KILN. MVFR cigs associated with this should also continue
to erode away from the west, leaving mainly clear skies through
the remainder of the morning.
A weak low pressure system will track east across the Ohio
Valley later this afternoon through tonight. This will lead to
an increase in mainly mid and high level clouds through the
afternoon hours. Cigs will then lower this evening with MVFR to
IFR cigs developing at the southern TAF sites, along with IFR
vsbys due to snow. Some snow accumulation will be possible at
the southern TAF sites through the tail end of the TAF period.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions may linger into Sunday, particularly
for sites along/near the Ohio River.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM EST
Sunday for KYZ089-090-094>100.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM EST
Sunday for INZ080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...JGL
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 30, 3:16 AM EST---------------
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