BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 26, 9:34 PM EST191
FXUS61 KBOX 270234
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
934 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Clearing tonight behind a departing low pressure, then dry and
seasonable Wednesday as high pressure builds to the south. Another
low pressure tracks near the coast on Thanksgiving bringing
rain with some accumulating snow possible in the higher
elevations. Drying out Friday with seasonable temperatures, then
colder this weekend into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM Update:
Temps across the region are falling faster then anticipated
which led to patchy freezing drizzle and fog earlier this
evening. The threat the freezing fog and drizzle is coming to an
end as dry NW flow helps clear out the fog. However, any
untreated wet surfaces will likely freeze tonight as sub
freezing temps are expected across the region except near the
coasts and urban centers. Rest of forecast remains on track.
Previous Discussion:
Mid level shortwave lifts NE into Canada this evening with
frontal system moving offshore. Back edge of rain already moving
into eastern MA and will push offshore during the next 2 hours
as dry slot overspreads the region.
Dry NW flow tonight with PWATs dropping to near 0.25" will lead to
clearing skies. Enough gradient for a modest NW wind tonight which
will limit radiational cooling. Lows will range from the upper 20s
interior to mid 30s along the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure should build into the central Appalachians tonight
into Wednesday. This will maintain dry weather across southern
New England, along with a steady west wind. Thinking it will be
gusty tonight with the initial arrival of colder air, then the
pressure gradient relaxes Wednesday. Near to slightly above
normal temperatures tonight should transition to near to
slightly below normal temperatures Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages...
* Rain and high elevation snow Thanksgiving and Thanksgiving night
* Drier an colder for the weekend
Details...
Thanksgiving day will be the busiest day weather-wise through early
next week. This comes as a reinforcing northern stream trough digs
into southern New England on Thursday becoming negatively tilted as
it crosses the region. This leads to cyclogenesis over the Mid-
Atlantic and eventually New England coast. The surface low deepens
and tracks near or just offshore of Cape Cod Thursday evening, and
while it remains rather difficult to nail down the ultimate
evolution of the parent shortwave, guidance is coming into closer
agreement on a less impactful high elevation snow event. The general
idea is 1 to 3 inches of snow in the Berkshires with a coating to an
inch in the highest elevations of the Worcester Hills. It's quite a
wet system especially to the southeast closer to a 1"+ plume of
PWATs over the Cape and islands. While rain isn't expected to be
particularly heavy, over the course of Thursday and Thursday night
guidance indicates rainfall amounts on either side of 1 inch are
most likely. It will be a cool and raw day with continuous
precipitation and highs only reaching the 40s inland, low 50s along
the south coast.
Friday the low lifts out into the Maritimes as dry mid and upper
level air quickly moves in on W/SW flow. Things will be largely dry
going into the weekend but lingering troughing/cyclonic flow aloft
will lead to continued chances for very widely scattered rain/snow
showers.
Going into the weekend and early next week a large shortwave
continues to sit over the eastern U.S. directing cold NW flow into
the region. This will bring about some colder than normal days with
highs only reaching the mid/upper 30s by Sunday and Monday. Can't
rule out a spot shower each day but lack of deep moisture should
keep things dry.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00z TAF update...
Tonight and Wednesday...High confidence.
VFR. W-WNW wind 5-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt Cape/Islands and
higher terrain through 06z.
Wednesday night...High confidence.
VFR most of the night, lowering to MVFR as rain overspreads
the region 08-12z, mixing with snow interior MA.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Improving to VFR
22-23z.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Improving to VFR
20-22z.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thanksgiving Day: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy.
RA.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance
RA.
Friday: VFR.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance RA.
Saturday through Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Sunday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Wednesday night...
Wind shift to NW by late afternoon or early evening, then gusts to
25 kt developing, diminishing late tonight. W winds 10-20 kt
Wednesday becoming light S-SW Wed night. SCA tonight, lingering over
outer waters Wed due to hazardous seas. Rain exits the eastern
waters by late afternoon or early evening. Rain redevelops late Wed
night.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thanksgiving Day: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Rain likely.
Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance
of rain.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain.
Saturday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up
to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ231-251.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ232>235-
237.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for ANZ250-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/BW
NEAR TERM...KJC/KP
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...KJC/BW
MARINE...KJC/BW
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 26, 9:34 PM EST----------------
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