IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 28, 12:36 AM EST003
FXUS63 KIWX 280536
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1236 AM EST Thu Nov 28 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Lake effect snow showers with accumulations up to 1-2"
possible for Berrien and Cass counties late Thursday through
Friday.
- Unseasonably cold through mid next week. Highs in the upper
20s to low 30s with lows in the teens.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 848 PM EST Wed Nov 27 2024
Rain is ongoing from about Wauseon, OH southwest through to
Monticello, IN as of this writing. Temperatures have fallen just
a couple of degrees so far but are still hovering above
freezing. Dew points range from about 34 to 36 degrees. Cold
air advection is modest overall with a general lack of
baroclinic zone aloft; the better cold air advection push is
across southern WI, per 850-mb guidance. Thus, the best cold air
advection arrives after the precipitation shield has exited our
forecast area. There are no mPING reports of any snow at this
time, reassuring that the overall forecast is on track. I did
adjust hourly temperatures and dew points (warmer) to reflect
the latest trends which also delays the chance of snow to mix
in. Clouds threaten to linger tonight, also permitting me to
nudge overnight lows upward. This system will exit between 4AM
and 6AM EST.
On the forecast floor, the question of bright banding has
been broached regarding higher radar returns over Indianapolis.
Observations here indicate rain amid their very mild
temperatures. Futhermore, highest precipitation rates are
colocated almost perfectly with an area of mid-and-low level
frontogenesis. These enhanced precipitation rates will slip
into Jay County near midnight, when temperatures will generally
still support primarily rain.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM EST Wed Nov 27 2024
Modified arctic airmass will spread south across the Great Lakes in
wake of low amplitude disturbance ejecting through the OH valley
tonight/Thu. A few snow showers possible northwest Thu morning
before giving way to lake banding Thu night into Fri morning as low
level lake thermal trough intensifies. However expected dry
entrainment along wrn/srn flank of Lake Michigan will curtail
development and doubt much more than an inch of snow possible north
of the MI/IN stateline. Otherwise brief window does exist toward
daybreak Thu for some snow to mix in south of US24 within departing
rain shield. Relatively warm sfc temps and rainfall overnight here
will preclude any snow accumulation.
Remainder of the period will be quite cold and dry beneath dominant
upper low taking shape near James Bay. Temp anomalies Fri-Tue will
run 10-15 degrees below normal.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM EST Thu Nov 28 2024
Dry air was spreading into the area from the west and was
helping rain to end over the area from west to east. Rain
should end near the start of the TAF at the FWA terminal,
although lower clouds are likely to linger from some time with
moisture eventually becoming trapped below a weak inversion.
Went with a TEMPO group at SBN for light snow showers as the
axis of precipitation shifts east. Otherwise, may be too
optimistic with VFR ceilings later in the TAF period.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
Sunday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Brown
DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...Skipper
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 28, 12:36 AM EST---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
