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406 FXUS64 KLIX 051824AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1224 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1140 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026- Cooler and much drier conditions are expected this weekend and into early next week with the passage of a stronger cold front.&&.SHORT TERM...(Now through Sunday)Issued at 1140 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026Drier air is gradually filtering into the area with the passage ofa weak front this morning making for a beautiful, but stillseasonably warm day. No real notable changes to temperatures willcome from this more Pacific-style frontal passage as the main cooler air mass remains held up over the northern CONUS throughFriday. However, that will change as a shortwave trough phases within the base of a cut-off trough over the midwest and helps to drag a stronger cold front southward on Saturday. Given the troughing will be lifting out into the northeast CONUS, it's likely this front will slow and become diffuse as it crosses out into area. Some areas of south MS will wake up Sunday morning withtemperatures into the low to mid 40s while coastal Louisiana willremain closer to the low to mid 50s.The CWA will remain predominantly on the southeast flank ofsurface high pressure through much of the short term forecastperiod meaning plenty of dry, offshore flow that will keep rainchances near 0 percent.&&.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Wednesday)Issued at 1140 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026Dry air will dominate the area this weekend, but there will be a limited chance of rain associated with a weak disturbance within the subtropical jet stream that will move across the area late Monday into Tuesday.Beyond that temperatures remain largely seasonable through nextweek and little in the way of rainfall. Model ensemble guidancehints that the next shot at a cold front would be associated witha diving trough over the eastern CONUS late next week, but it'stoo far out to know specifics regarding rain chances andtemperature changes with this just yet.&&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 1140 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026VFR conditions areawide with light, variable winds prevailing atall terminals. Some light, shallow fog will be possible on Fridaymorning around sunrise, but impacts to terminals are notanticipated at this time. Northerly winds will become prevailing and increase closer to 5 to 10 knots on Friday morning with a second frontal passage.&&.MARINE...Issued at 1140 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026A weak cold front continues to slowly move through the coastal waters today. Winds are generally light and variable and will remain that way until a reinforcing cold front moves through early Friday where winds will quickly become offshore again and a little stronger, around 10 to 15 knots. Offshore winds will be strongest over the weekend with gusts upwards of 20 knots before gradually decreasing into next week as the area remains under the southeast flank of surface high pressure.&&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...TJSLONG TERM....TJSAVIATION...TJSMARINE...TJS
