LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 12:24 PM CST ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...406
FXUS64 KLIX 051824
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1224 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1140 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026
- Cooler and much drier conditions are expected this weekend and
into early next week with the passage of a stronger cold front.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026
Drier air is gradually filtering into the area with the passage of
a weak front this morning making for a beautiful, but still
seasonably warm day. No real notable changes to temperatures will
come from this more Pacific-style frontal passage as the main
cooler air mass remains held up over the northern CONUS through
Friday. However, that will change as a shortwave trough phases
within the base of a cut-off trough over the midwest and helps to
drag a stronger cold front southward on Saturday. Given the
troughing will be lifting out into the northeast CONUS, it's
likely this front will slow and become diffuse as it crosses out
into area. Some areas of south MS will wake up Sunday morning with
temperatures into the low to mid 40s while coastal Louisiana will
remain closer to the low to mid 50s.
The CWA will remain predominantly on the southeast flank of
surface high pressure through much of the short term forecast
period meaning plenty of dry, offshore flow that will keep rain
chances near 0 percent.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026
Dry air will dominate the area this weekend, but there will be a
limited chance of rain associated with a weak disturbance within
the subtropical jet stream that will move across the area late
Monday into Tuesday.
Beyond that temperatures remain largely seasonable through next
week and little in the way of rainfall. Model ensemble guidance
hints that the next shot at a cold front would be associated with
a diving trough over the eastern CONUS late next week, but it's
too far out to know specifics regarding rain chances and
temperature changes with this just yet.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026
VFR conditions areawide with light, variable winds prevailing at
all terminals. Some light, shallow fog will be possible on Friday
morning around sunrise, but impacts to terminals are not
anticipated at this time. Northerly winds will become prevailing
and increase closer to 5 to 10 knots on Friday morning with a
second frontal passage.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026
A weak cold front continues to slowly move through the coastal
waters today. Winds are generally light and variable and will remain
that way until a reinforcing cold front moves through early Friday
where winds will quickly become offshore again and a little
stronger, around 10 to 15 knots. Offshore winds will be strongest
over the weekend with gusts upwards of 20 knots before gradually
decreasing into next week as the area remains under the southeast
flank of surface high pressure.
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...TJS
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 12:24 PM CST ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...---------------
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