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821 FXUS64 KLIX 131830AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA130 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1222 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026- Hot temperatures are expected for much of the forecast. Highs in the mid to upper 90s through the weekend with heat index values generally running in the mid 100s to near 110 through the end of the work week and then likely climbing into the lower 110's this weekend. Heat Advisories are in place for today, likely Friday and Heat Warnings likely Saturday, Sunday, and into the new week. Stay tuned. The impact of the afternoon highs will be exacerbated by the slightly higher than normal overnight lows; we just won't have a chance to cool off.&&.SHORT TERM...(Now through Sunday night)Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026So, what's new? Not really anything! We still have the highpressure over the area behaving the same as we've been discussingthe past several days. The high pressure is intensifying andcontinues to drive a slight temperature increase and little to norain. The important message in the short term is the elevated HeatIndex, or feels like temperature, that will reach levels promptingissuance of Heat Advisories. This afternoon and tomorrow from 11amto 8pm we will see the Heat Index around 110 degrees. Make sureyou're drinking lots of water and finding ways to stay cool.&&.LONG TERM...(Monday through Wednesday night)Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026The long term still continues to look hot with the upper ridge stretched from the Desert Southwest all the way to the western Atlantic. That said there is a very subtle weakness in the globalsover the southern Mississippi River Valley. This will NOT shake the heat, but may help with a little less subsidence for a very slight uptick in convective coverage during the diurnal cycle. By this point, several days where highs in the 90s occurred with several likely nearly rain free days, the soil moisture will continue to decrease, which will help daily highs warm into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees later in the period. PWATs are stillforecast to increase to around 2.0" which suggests better moisture quality with more limited mixing leading to higher surface relative humidity values. Bottom line here is with the higher temps and higher humidity, "feels like" temps willprobably reach the warning criteria.Going through the end of the forecast period and perhaps slightly beyond, globals are struggling a bit with the overall synoptic pattern in terms of timing, however, both the ECM/GFS and respective ensembles show an upper level trough trying to dig either over the Central Plains or over the east coast midweek next week, which hopefully suppress and weaken the eastern extent of the H5 ridge.[Frye/Schlotz]&&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026VFR conditions across the area through the forecast period. Highpressure suppressing convection should keep skies clear andconditions at VFR.&&.MARINE...Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026Generally benign marine conditions through the forecast period with high pressure mostly being in control from start to finish. Isolated nightly convection will be possible, especially over the offshore waters where locally higher winds and seas may reside around showers and storms with perhaps a waterspout or two. Overall, winds should remain mostly southerly at or less than 10 knots outside of convection. Some variability in direction will occur through the period as the center of high pressure evolvesand moves. (Frye/Schlotz)&&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.GM...None.MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...DSLONG TERM....DSAVIATION...DSMARINE...DS
