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110 FXUS64 KLIX 232011AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA311 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025Northern stream trough over Minnesota this afternoon with lead shortwaves over Iowa, the Texas Panhandle, and Baja California. At the surface, high pressure between Bermuda and the Bahamas had a westward extension into the eastern Gulf. A frontal boundary extended from Minnesota to Missouri to Texas. Locally, southerly flow was pumping moisture into the area on 15 to 20 mph southerly winds, and has brought mostly cloudy skies to much of the area this afternoon. Temperatures were mainly in the mid and upper 70s,but a few locations were right at 80 degrees. Dew points were in the lower and middle 60s. Radar indicated a few light rain showersor sprinkles across the extreme western portions of the CWA, but very few people in our CWA are seeing them this afternoon.The shortwave over Texas is beginning to produce convection overArkansas along Interstate 40 at mid afternoon. Deep moistureremains somewhat lacking locally this afternoon, although dew points are climbing into the mid 60s. We will have steep mid levellapse rates in place, of around 8C/km and CAPE values of 1500-2000J/kg, but low level wind fields aren't particularly strong at thistime. Most of the convection allowing models develop a larger areaof convection from northeast Mississippi southwestward into Texasduring the evening hours, but probably not moving into our area ofresponsibility over southwest Mississippi until perhaps 3 AM CDT.Forecast soundings would be supportive of hail as the main threat,as well as damaging winds. However, most model solutions indicate storms will be weakening as they move into the area, with not muchremaining of those storms by 9 or 10 AM. That being said, forecastsoundings indicate that conditions could destabilize again duringthe afternoon if we get some sunshine. While the main troughingshould be east of the area by midday, if any isolated storms candevelop, they will again bring a threat of hail. Clearing skies are expected Monday night across the area, with atleast some potential for fog around sunrise Tuesday. Overnight lows the next two nights will be mainly in the upper 50sto mid 60s. Highs Monday are likely to be in the mid and upper70s, but if we get more sunshine than expected Monday afternoon,some lower 80s will be possible. &&.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday night)Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025Upper flow will primarily be northwesterly for the remainder ofthe workweek until a southern stream shortwave approaches the areaFriday or Friday night. There is likely to be at least one periodof showers and thunderstorms next weekend, probably Saturday. The early week trough will only have drier air behind it and not cold air, so temperatures are going to be above normal during the day all week. Much of the area should see high temperatures get into the 80s on multiple days, with potentially mid 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. Normal highs for late March are in the lower and mid 70s. Overnight lows should be in the upper 40s to mid 50s, andwe will likely be above those levels most mornings, if not all ofthem. &&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025Most terminals are currently VFR, but we'll see occasional MVFRconditions where cumulus becomes a little more plentiful, such asKMCB and KHDC. MVFR to IFR ceilings likely to become prevalentbeyond 06z Monday through at least 15z Monday. Precipitation-wise, we could see a few SHRA by mid to late evening at KMCB and potentially KBTR, but any TSRA probably won't be until much later in the night as shortwave approaches from the west. Tried to limitmention of TSRA to a 6 hour window, but confidence isn't particularly strong. Better chances at southern terminals may actually be Monday afternoon, although forcing is much weaker at that time. Direct impacts of TSRA would generally be IFR visibilities and/or ceilings.Southeast to south winds gusting to 25 knots will continue thisafternoon, but should settle down to around 10 knots or less thisevening. &&.MARINE...Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025Beyond the potential for thunderstorms later tonight into Monday,there should be a period of 48 hours or so with fairly benignconditions over the waters, with winds remaining well below 15knots during that period. Wind and sea conditions will deterioratesomewhat beginning Thursday or Friday ahead of next weekend'sweather system. Small Craft Exercise Caution or Small CraftAdvisory conditions look likely, perhaps as early as Thursdaynight. &&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 61 77 55 84 / 70 40 0 0 BTR 63 81 59 85 / 70 60 10 0 ASD 64 80 59 84 / 60 70 10 0 MSY 65 78 62 82 / 50 70 10 0 GPT 63 76 58 79 / 50 70 10 0 PQL 61 79 57 81 / 50 70 10 0 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...RWLONG TERM....RWAVIATION...RWMARINE...RW
