ThreatWeb

864 
FXUS63 KLMK 122348
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
748 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue this evening
  across the Bluegrass, with precipitation chances diminishing
  after 10pm.

* Patchy, locally dense fog is possible Sunday morning, especially 
  in sheltered valleys and in areas which receive rain today. 

* Overall drier and hotter conditions arrive early next week while 
  an upper level ridge builds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 324 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

This Afternoon and Evening...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are observed across the area at 
this hour, with temperatures generally in the low-to-mid 80s. 
Satellite imagery shows a scattered cu field across the area, with 
more organized and robust areas of cu/cb extending from Shelby 
County north/northeastward toward the Cincinnati metro. For the 
remainder of the afternoon, scattered showers and storms should 
continue to develop as plentiful low-level moisture and forcing from 
a mid-level trough axis and vort lobe pivots through the area. Since 
deep-layer shear is fairly weak, mainly pulse storms are expected 
with heavy rain and lightning being the main storm threats. As we 
get later into the evening, coverage should decrease and move toward 
eastern KY, with more clearing and drier conditions expected along 
and west of I-65.

Tonight...

This evening, the mid-level trough axis and associated vort max will 
move across the Appalachians, with better forcing for ascent and 
moisture content exiting the region along with it. While most of the 
deeper moisture will be east of the region tonight, there should be 
some shallow moisture left over near the surface, especially in 
areas which receive a shower or storm this afternoon. With the bulk 
of the low- and mid-level cloud cover expected to move out of the 
area by around midnight and light winds expected in the boundary 
layer, conditions will be favorable for fog development, some of 
which could be locally dense in river valleys and other sheltered 
locations. 12Z HREF guidance shows at least a 20% chance of less 
than 1/2 mile visibility Sunday morning across the area, with higher 
probabilities in the Hoosier National Forest and near Lake 
Cumberland. Low temperatures are expected to range from the mid 60s 
to the low 70s across the area. 

Sunday and Sunday Night...

Tomorrow, a mid- and upper-level shortwave is expected to eject from 
the Dakotas across the Great Lakes, amplifying only slightly as it 
moves to the east. As the upper wave moves to the north of the 
region, it will nudge a sfc cold front toward the Ohio Valley during 
the afternoon and evening hours. With our area expected to be ahead 
of the cold front for much of the day, temperatures should surge 
into the upper 80s and low 90s for highs. Additionally, with 
moisture pooling ahead of the cold front, things should be quite 
humid tomorrow. This moisture should also allow for a decent amount 
of instability to develop, with around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE 
expected. Stronger forcing along the front and with the upper trough 
should remain to the north of the area, but this still could be 
enough to get isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop 
along and north of I-64.

As we head into Sunday evening and Sunday night, the cold front 
should gradually sink toward the Ohio River. A few showers and 
storms may continue along this boundary, though coverage should 
diminish by early Monday morning. Cooler and drier air is expected 
to drop in behind the front, which should result in a spread between 
low temperatures near 60 across southern IN and near 70 in southern 
KY Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 324 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

On Monday, surface high pressure will move across the Midwest as 
upper-level ridging will begin to build from the lower Mississippi 
Valley into the Ohio Valley. What is left of a sfc cold front should 
linger over southern KY and into TN, with northeast winds moving in 
across the region. This cooler flow should hold temperatures down on 
Monday, with highs expected to range from around 80 across southern 
IN and the KY Bluegrass region, to the mid- and possibly upper 80s 
along the TN border.

During the middle of the upcoming week, upper ridging will build 
over the region, with low-level flow veering to the south-southwest. 
This will bring much warmer air into the region, with well above 
normal temperatures expected Tuesday through at least Thursday. High 
temperatures are expected to range from the low-to-mid 90s each day, 
with lows in the upper 60s and low 70s. With subsidence underneath 
the upper ridge, rain chances should be suppressed Tuesday and 
Wednesday, with hot temperatures being the main weather impact. Peak 
heat index values are currently expected to make it into the upper 
90s and low 100s, resulting in moderate to locally major HeatRisk 
categories.

Forecast confidence begins to decrease Thursday into Friday as the 
upper ridge tries to break down across the southeast US. Medium-
range ensemble families diverge on how quickly the ridge erodes, 
with the GEFS breaking down the ridge and bringing higher moisture 
and precipitation chances into the region faster than the ECMWF. If 
the ridge is more resilient, then Thursday and Friday may end up 
being the hottest days of the week, with elevated heat impacts 
continuing. In contrast, a weaker upper ridge would bring a gradual 
return of shower/storm chances and slightly milder temperatures. As 
we head into next weekend, it becomes more likely that the upper 
pattern will shift enough to allow a sfc cold front to at least 
approach the Ohio Valley, bringing increased rain chances and milder 
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 746 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

A broken line of showers and embedded thunderstorms are slowly 
moving east across the Bluegrass Saturday evening, and will pose a 
low (30%) chance for a lightning strike near/at RGA over the next 
couple hours. Otherwise, dry conditions can be expected throughout 
the forecast period. Winds will go light and variable while skies 
clear overnight, allowing patchy fog to develop. The highest chances 
for impacts appears to be at RGA and LEX, though it cannot be ruled 
out at BWG and HNB, where tempo groups were also added to highlight 
the potential. In addition, a couple hours of IFR/MVFR ceilings 
could follow the fog during the 12-14z timeframe, though low 
confidence precluded an additional FM group to highlight this.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...JRB

049 
WGUS81 KILN 131150
FLSILN

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
750 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

OHC131-141-131200-
/O.EXP.KILN.FA.W.0048.000000T0000Z-260913T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pike OH-Ross OH-
750 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

The Flood Warning will expire at 8 AM EDT this morning for a portion
of south central Ohio, including the following areas, Pike and Ross.

Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3919 8319 3930 8296 3927 8290 3921 8288
      3905 8305 3905 8316 3907 8320 3908 8323
      3915 8328

$$

35

045 
WUUS01 KWNS 131641
PTSDY1

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026

VALID TIME 131630Z - 141200Z

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... TORNADO ...

&&

... HAIL ...

0.05   41050524 43620481 44560433 44790302 44750184 43760152
       42600255 41180295 40710330 40690482 41050524 
0.05   43987720 43517521 43107432 42577434 41977494 41007682
       39677987 38498357 38808470 40058432 41988123 42848044
&&

... WIND ...

0.05   41090504 42250546 42260667 41090732 40950825 41080908
       41630930 43220890 43730569 44530431 44790302 44750184
       43760152 42600255 41180295 40710330 40690482 41090504
0.05   45847126 44137184 43137258 41687398 40917646 39637970
       38698184 38498362 38808470 40058432 41988123 42848044
0.15   42927435 42107525 41647657 41007800 40347898 40018002
       39898056 40448162 41058160 42157958 42717891 43307857
       43417570 42927435 
&&

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... CATEGORICAL ...

SLGT   41058160 42157958 42717891 43307857 43417570 42927435
       42107525 41647657 41007800 40347898 39898056 40448162
       41058160 
MRGL   45817127 44137184 43137258 41687398 40917646 39637970
       38698184 38498362 38808470 40058432 41988123 42848044
MRGL   43220890 43730569 44560433 44790302 44750184 43760152
       42600255 41180295 40710330 40690482 41050524 41460517
       42250546 42260667 41090732 40950825 41080908 41630930
       43220890 
TSTM   31301244 32011258 32391274 32701294 32951306 33401342
       33731370 34031395 34531424 36011456 37081433 38241332
       39771252 40991150 41941110 42521085 43051008 43470922
       44020876 44740837 45810872 46000873 46240898 46310910
       46340933 46410966 46081228 45651425 45101596 45031628
       44921698 44941750 45021795 45261827 45621853 46131873
       47371923 47471934 47651940 47831946 47921947 48211940
       48341914 48421898 49511628 99999999 45528188 45628305
       45848438 46298640 46798711 47558747 48828766 99999999
       49840048 48539916 47939872 46799836 45359547 42949312
       41928985 40378843 39728826 39178877 38669116 38419127
       38109091 37618984 37158896 36498859 34838855 33988814
       33068704 32828654 32808628 32848533 33548402 33858247
       34457979 35267886 35987868 37047927 37848051 37648387
       37088486 37348754 37928782 39058665 39928601 40718496
       41308393 42168226 99999999 27209980 28519928 29379899
       30089878 30409843 31169700 31769647 35299603 35709619
       36059648 36389701 36119758 35339848 34909903 34160006
       33460197 32400310 31390385 30540358 30140334 30110316
       30080285 30130194 30090175 29980147 29790121 29610117
       29370115 29140116 99999999 39260385 38890347 39210233
       39320115 39919931 41039933 41890015 41680150 41060212
       40310304 39260385 99999999 46966708 46186827 45566899
       45026944 44286989 43876986 43596937 43696875 44116786
       44456702 45066608 

&&
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15
NW CAK 15 W JHW 20 SSW BUF 25 NNE BUF 25 NW UCA 30 WNW ALB 35 NW
MSV 30 NE IPT 15 NW UNV 25 E LBE 20 SSE HLG 35 SSW CAK 15 NW CAK

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
80 N BML 30 WSW MWN 20 NW EEN  0 - POU 35 SE IPT 10 E MGW 25 NNW
CRW 65 N JKL 25 SW LUK 10 NNW DAY 50 NE CLE 55 NNW ERI

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 NNW LND 45 S GCC 60 ENE GCC 50 N RAP 50 NNW PHP 20 SSE PHP 30
ESE CDR  0 - SNY 30 SSW SNY 20 NNE FCL 25 WSW CYS 30 NW CYS 35 S
DGW 45 SSW CPR 40 NNE CAG 50 NW CAG 35 S RKS 10 W RKS 30 NNW LND

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 115 S GBN 65 S GBN
35 S GBN 20 SW GBN 20 W GBN 55 NW GBN 60 E BLH 55 ENE BLH 25 SE
EED 35 E LAS 40 SSE P38 20 SW MLF 25 N U24 30 ENE SLC 45 N EVW 40
W BPI 35 N BPI 50 NNW LND 35 SSE COD 35 ENE COD 10 W BIL 15 NW BIL
35 NW BIL 35 ESE 3HT 25 ESE 3HT 10 E 3HT 15 NE BTM 40 NNW SMN 15
NNE MYL 15 NW MYL 40 E BKE 15 ENE BKE 15 NNW BKE 35 NW BKE 15 ESE
PDT 30 N PDT 15 ENE EPH 15 NE EPH 25 NNE EPH 35 N EPH 35 S OMK 20
SSE OMK 20 ESE OMK 25 E OMK 140 NNW 3TH ...CONT... 90 ENE APN 45
NE APN 30 NE PLN 50 NE ESC 30 NE MQT 70 N MQT 120 NNE CMX
...CONT... 115 NNE MOT 30 NNW DVL 15 SE DVL 20 ESE JMS 35 S AXN 20
SE MCW 45 WSW RFD 25 NNW CMI 15 N MTO 35 NNE SLO 45 W STL 35 NE
VIH 35 NW FAM 30 NNW CGI 10 WNW PAH 40 SSE PAH 40 NNE TUP 30 NE
CBM 40 SSW BHM 35 NNW MGM 35 N MGM 15 NNE AUO 25 ESE ATL 45 SSE
AND 20 NNW FLO 20 N FAY 10 NE RDU 20 S LYH 10 WNW SSU 30 WNW JKL
45 W LOZ 35 SW OWB 20 WSW EVV  0 - BMG 20 NE IND 20 SSE FWA 20 SSW
TOL 40 SE MTC ...CONT... 30 SW LRD  0 - COT 10 E HDO 40 NNW SAT 45
W AUS 25 E TPL 20 SSW CRS 30 NNW MLC 40 SSW TUL 30 NE CQB 25 SSE
PNC 25 SE END 35 WNW CHK 20 NE LTS 20 SE CDS 15 SSW LBB 20 SSE HOB
45 SW INK 30 ENE MRF 45 ESE MRF 60 SSW FST 40 W 6R6 15 ENE 6R6 30
E 6R6 45 E 6R6 35 NNW DRT 20 NW DRT 15 W DRT 20 SW DRT ...CONT...
10 W LIC 30 SSE LIC  0 - ITR 30 E GLD 45 NE HLC 25 NW EAR 40 NW
BBW 35 SW MHN 45 NW IML 15 NE AKO 10 W LIC ...CONT... 45 E CAR 25
W HUL 55 N BGR 35 WNW BGR  0 - AUG 30 S AUG 55 SSE AUG 55 SSW BHB
35 SE BHB 30 S EPM 45 ENE EPM

168 
FXUS64 KMOB 121831
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
131 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 130 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

 - High rain chances continue through Sunday with the potential
   for localized flash flooding. A few strong storms capable of 
   producing strong wind gusts will be possible through the 
   weekend.

 - Waterspouts are possible with any storms over the marine waters
   this morning, primarily from dawn through mid-morning.

 - High temperatures are expected to increase next week with heat
   indices potentially ranging from 100-107 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Through Tuesday...A mean upper trough over the Southeast and 
Tennessee River Valley moves off as upper level high pressure moves 
over the regions early in the coming week. A drier airmass moves 
over the Southeast behind the shifting upper trough, with the axis 
of higher moisture levels shifting south and east of the forecast 
area in response. Rain chances become more coastally based Sunday, 
and offshore Monday. Any convection has a possibility of strong to 
marginally severe storms this weekend, with MLCapes in the 2000-
2500J/kg and DCapes in the 700-1000J/kg ranges. 

With the advancing upper subsidence, temperatures rise to well above 
seasonal norms into the coming week. Mid to upper 90s return for 
Monday and Tuesday. The shifting moisture levels will help to temper 
Heat Indices going to the coming week, though. Even so, 100-107F, 
locally higher, values are expected Sunday through Tuesday. Low 
temperatures in the low to mid 70s, upper 70s along the coast are 
expected through the short term.

Tuesday night on, a surface ridge develops along the eastern side of 
the Appalachians, in response to the shifting upper ridge. Guidance 
continues to advertise a closed upper low moving west over the 
northern Gulf coast. The surface ridge moves a significantly drier 
airmass southwest over the Southeast as the upper low begins to move 
onshore over the region, limiting rain chances the rest of the week 
over land areas. PoPs remain over the Gulf, with moisture levels 
remaining high over the Gulf. This upper low does bring increased 
cloud cover, dropping temperatures to closer, but a still a bit 
above, seasonal norms.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a general Low 
Risk is expected through the weekend into the coming week. A more 
organized, moderate to strong easterly flow will bring an increased 
swell to area beaches, along with a Moderate to High Rip Risk to 
area beaches by mid week.
/16


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast outside of
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly along 
and east of I-65. MVFR ceilings, brief IFR visibilities, and gusty
winds to 35 knots are expected in the stronger storms. Winds for 
all TAF sites will start off southwesterly to southerly at 5-10 
knots becoming calm to light and variable this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

An upper high moving over the Tennessee River 
Valley/Southeast, with shift a surface high over the northern Gulf, 
bringing a more variable flow to area waters early in the coming 
week. A surface ridge develops on the east side of the Appalachians 
through the coming week, bringing a moderate easterly flow to area 
waters, with moderate to strong flow over open Gulf waters. A Small 
Craft Advisory is expected mid week on.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  92  74  94 /   0  30  10  10 
Pensacola   77  91  77  93 /  10  30  10  10 
Destin      77  89  77  92 /  20  20  10  10 
Evergreen   70  94  71  96 /  10  20   0   0 
Waynesboro  72  95  72  97 /  20  30   0   0 
Camden      72  93  72  96 /  20  10   0   0 
Crestview   72  92  72  94 /  10  30  10   0 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

409 
WWUS81 KCLE 132127
SPSCLE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
527 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026
 
OHZ021-022-032-033-132215-
Summit OH-Portage OH-Stark OH-Mahoning OH-
527 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN PORTAGE...SOUTHWESTERN
MAHONING...NORTHERN STARK AND SOUTHEASTERN SUMMIT COUNTIES THROUGH
615 PM EDT...

At 527 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Green, or 8 miles southeast of Akron, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around 
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Akron, Canton, Green, Alliance, North Canton, Louisville, Sebring,
Hartville, Lakemore, Beloit, Limaville, Greentown, Maple Ridge,
Maximo, and Uniontown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. 

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4090 8154 4104 8148 4100 8100 4090 8099
      4090 8109 4079 8109
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 282DEG 27KT 4098 8144 

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

$$

04