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PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 9, 7:23 AM EDT

587 
FXUS61 KPBZ 091123
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
723 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface front will meander across the region through the week
and into the weekend maintaining daily shower and thunderstorm 
chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Stalled boundary along the PA/WV border keeps most convection
  south of Pittsburgh today.
- Daytime highs top out just above normal.
---------------------------------------------------------------

Light radar returns move across the area this morning with a 
weak- mid level wave, but dry sub-cloud layer air is preventing 
much of this from reaching the ground. Have seen a few reports
of light showers, but overall this activity will be unimpactful
this morning.

Latest surface analysis shows a pseudo-stationary boundary 
parked along the PA/WV border, which will serve as the focal 
point for any convective development today once instability 
increases with diurnal heating. Increased mid and upper level 
cloud coverage will persist through the period with increased 
moisture advection ahead of an approaching mid-level shortwave.
The cloud coverage that has increased over the course of the 
night has mitigated any widespread fog development this morning,
and do not anticipate the need for any advisories at this time.
Models, analogs, and machine learning guidance are all in 
agreement with minimal strong/severe potential with any 
convection today. This would be limited to portions of northern 
West Virginia, where there is better instability/stronger 
updraft potential, and potential for localized heavy rainfall, 
but the overall threat is low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Better coverage of scattered storms Thursday as boundary lifts
  back north.
- Slightly above normal temperatures continue.
----------------------------------------------------------------

Convection fades this evening, with the overnight period largely
dry across the region. On Thursday, a crossing shortwave trough
will push the aforementioned boundary north again as a warm 
front, resulting in slightly more diurnal convective coverage.
Relatively weak CAPE profiles and relatively low shear suggest a
minimal severe threat. Latest MSU-CLP and CIPs guidance does not
hint at much potential at all for severe convection or flooding
in the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Stalled boundary lingers into the weekend at least with
  continued daily rain chances, currently highest Sunday.
- Low rain chances next week as pattern uncertainty increases.
- Continued near to above-normal temperature.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

On Friday, a wave of low pressure along the boundary may push it 
further south, keeping higher diurnal shower/storm chances 
across our southern zones. Precipitable water remains elevated 
near and south of the boundary, so locally heavy rainfall will 
remain possible. 

Mainly diurnal shower and storm chances continue into the
weekend, with the best chance for more widespread coverage on
Sunday as surface low pressure transitions over the northern 
Great Lakes and the associated cold front crosses the region. 
There is some uncertainty in timing of FROPA, so with that, NBM 
10th to 90th percentile spreads continue to exceed 10 degrees 
for most of the region, with possible max values ranging from 
around 80 to the lower 90s. Severe/flooding potential is non-
zero, but on the low end at this time based off latest models, 
analogs, and machine learning guidance.

Uncertainty them propagates into next week. Elevated 500mb heights 
and zonal flow aloft are most likely, keeping temperatures near to 
above normal, but differences in disturbances in that flow
require low-end PoPs for both Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Some areas of fog this morning are bringing reduced visibility
to primarily MVFR at LBE and FKL while all other terminals
remain VFR. Expect that this will be the case through the
morning hours when diurnal heating will erode any fog/low 
stratus by 13z with VFR then expected the rest of the day.

Shortwave movement is likely to be displaced too far north/south
to generate precipitation, however, there is a low probability 
(30%) for a shower between 18z-00z at ZZV and MGW. Have included
a PROB30 for this at both sites. Elsewhere, expect a mid-level
cloud deck in place with a light southwesterly wind. Following 
sunset, the probability for a rain shower decreases.

Some fog development is again possible tonight with light to
calm wind and elevated surface moisture. Hi res probability
favors similar development to Tuesday night with persistence in
a relatively unchanged airmass bringing elevated chances for
MGW, LBE, and DUJ.

Outlook...
A weakly forced but warm/humid environment is favored through 
the end of the week that will allow for intermittent periods of 
showers/thunderstorms; confidence is likely to be lower on 
timing various rounds of precipitation as well as the resultant 
cig/vis impact they could have during the morning hours.

More significant upper level and surface boundary movement appears 
to arrive over the weekend that will create a more focused and 
better timed period for convection and restriction development.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...MLB/88
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...MLB

Source: PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 9, 7:23 AM EDT

---------------
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FORT WAYNE Jul 7 Climate Report: High: 79 Low: 65 Precip: Trace Snow: Missing

587 
CDUS43 KIWX 080553
CLIFWA

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
153 AM EDT TUE JUL 08 2025

...................................

...THE FORT WAYNE CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JULY 7 2025...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1897 TO 2025


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         79    640 PM 103    2012  84     -5       86       
  MINIMUM         65   1143 PM  48    1984  64      1       60       
  AVERAGE         72                        74     -2       73     

PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                    
  YESTERDAY        T             2.30 1904   0.14  -0.14     0.00     
  MONTH TO DATE    0.02                      0.94  -0.92     0.17     
  SINCE JUN 1      4.27                      5.42  -1.15     2.80     
  SINCE JAN 1     15.81                     21.15  -5.34    23.64     

DEGREE DAYS                                                           
 HEATING                                                              
  YESTERDAY        0                         0      0        0        
  MONTH TO DATE    0                         0      0        0        
  SINCE JUN 1     15                        24     -9        5        
  SINCE JUL 1      0                         0      0        0        

 COOLING                                                              
  YESTERDAY        7                         9     -2        8        
  MONTH TO DATE   84                        63     21       47        
  SINCE JUN 1    351                       257     94      313        
  SINCE JAN 1    380                       327     53      415        
...................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                            
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    13   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION     N (340)       
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    17   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION    NW (330)       
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     5.8                                        


SKY COVER                                                             
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.8                                                 


WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                    
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.                         
  LIGHT RAIN                                                          
  FOG                                                                 


RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
 HIGHEST   100           400 AM                                      
 LOWEST     64           700 PM                                      
 AVERAGE    82                                                        

..........................................................


THE FORT WAYNE CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                     
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   84       104      1936                      
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   64        47      1908                      


SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                    
JULY  8 2025..........SUNRISE   617 AM EDT   SUNSET   915 PM EDT     
JULY  9 2025..........SUNRISE   617 AM EDT   SUNSET   914 PM EDT     


-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.




$$

Source: FORT WAYNE Jul 7 Climate Report: High: 79 Low: 65 Precip: Trace Snow: Missing

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The Weather Prediction Center issues Day 1 Slight Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook at Jul 8, 19:49z for portions of PAH

Sorry, product text is unavailable.

Source: The Weather Prediction Center issues Day 1 Slight Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook at Jul 8, 19:49z for portions of PAH

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JKL expires Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Floyd, Knott, Letcher, Pike [KY]

471 
WWUS53 KJKL 092123
SVSJKL

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
523 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

KYC071-119-133-195-092132-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0238.000000T0000Z-250709T2130Z/
Letcher KY-Knott KY-Floyd KY-Pike KY-
523 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN LETCHER...EAST
CENTRAL KNOTT...SOUTHEASTERN FLOYD AND SOUTHWESTERN PIKE COUNTIES
WILL EXPIRE AT 530 PM EDT...

The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with these thunderstorms.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
JACKSON KY.

&&

LAT...LON 3732 8240 3725 8243 3723 8249 3723 8250
      3721 8253 3719 8259 3727 8287 3739 8277
      3753 8275 3757 8239
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 277DEG 22KT 3750 8264 3737 8259 3730 8262 3724
8272

$$

JP

Source: JKL expires Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Floyd, Knott, Letcher, Pike [KY]

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Quebec fires head of SAAQ amid public inquiry into online platform debacle

The Legault government is firing Éric Ducharme, the head of Quebec's automobile insurance board. The SAAQ's vice-president Annie Lafond has been appointed interim CEO.

Source: Quebec fires head of SAAQ amid public inquiry into online platform debacle

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