ThreatWeb

805 
FXUS63 KPAH 240823
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
223 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread dense fog will continue well past daybreak this
  morning. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 10 AM.

- Rain is expected today through Tuesday with amounts of a
  quarter inch to around one inch expected. The heaviest rains 
  are expected mainly over west Kentucky overnight where a few 
  rumbles of thunder will be possible.

- Dry and cool conditions are expected Wednesday through 
  Friday.

- It will get wet throughout the area at some point Friday night
  through Sunday, but the specific timing is uncertain at this 
  time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Widespread dense fog has developed roughly over the southern
half to two thirds of the Quad State early this morning, and it
should gradually spread northward over most of the region by 
daybreak. There is little reason to expect the fog to improve
significantly until 15Z. The Dense Fog Advisory for the entire
area looks good with an expiration time of 16Z. Will reissue it
in a little while just to refresh the timing wording.

Little has changed with the rain event for later today through
Tuesday. There may be an initial surge of light showers moving 
through southeast Missouri in the late morning, and that could 
continue east of the river midday into the early afternoon. 
However, the more solid rainfall will overspread southeast 
Missouri in the afternoon and could overspread much of the 
region by 00Z. Much of the rain will fall overnight and then it 
will gradually come to an end from west to east on Tuesday.

QPF over much of the region will average a quarter to a half 
inch, but there will be a zone that will get an inch or possibly
even a bit more. That zone will most likely extend from the 
Bootheel northeast toward Henderson and Owensboro, or along and 
just southeast of the Ohio River. There will be just enough 
elevated instability to support a few lightning strikes from the
Bootheel in the late evening through much of west Kentucky 
overnight. 

A larger storm system will pass eastward through the upper
Mississippi Valley Tuesday night and into the Great Lakes
Wednesday. The associated cold front will pass through the Quad
State Tuesday night and Canadian surface high pressure will
build over the region through Friday. This will lead to
temperatures trending down to around 10 degrees below normal 
for Thanksgiving Day and Friday.

The forecast for the second half of the holiday weekend appears
to be active, but there is considerable uncertainty in timing
details. The flow aloft will transition quickly to troughing in
the west with zonal to southwest flow east of the Rockies. This
rapid transition with an initially cool airmass in place over 
the lower Ohio Valley should lead to considerable warm advection
and rain or convection somewhere over the Plains and 
Mississippi Valley. 

The latest guidance, especially the 00Z GFS-based guidance has 
shifted earlier and has substantial precipitation spreading 
southeast across the Quad State Friday night into Saturday 
morning. The NBM has temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s,
so it is generating accumulating snow. If this were to happen, 
temperatures at the surface would likely stay above freezing,
which may keep the snow away and at the least would not allow it
to accumulate. Anyway, there remains considerable spread in the
ensembles as to the likely times for precipitation over our 
region. Regardless there is certainly some potential for heavy 
rain, with the NBM indicating 1.5-2.5" of rainfall from Friday 
night through next Monday. Although this forecast does not have 
thunder in it, storms could become possible at some point. Stay 
tuned for clarity in future forecasts for next weekend and early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 948 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

LIFR ceilings/visibilities will be the main issues this TAF
issuance with fog and low stratus settling in at each TAF site
through at least Monday morning. Ceilings will continue to drop
down to 200ft overnight and visibilities around or lower than 
1/4. Late morning into early afternoon will see some improvement
in visibility as rain moves into the western sites and winds 
increase across the area. Still expecting flight restrictions 
with ceilings staying in the IFR range during the afternoon into
the evening hours Monday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST /11 AM EST/ this morning 
     for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...KC

885 
FXUS63 KJKL 242151
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
451 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A series of frontal boundaries will move across the region
  between tonight and Wednesday morning, leading to widespread
  shower chances late tonight into Tuesday night.

- Isolated strong storms are possible on Tuesday afternoon/
  evening for areas along and south of the Hal Rogers Pkwy/KY-80 
  corridor.

- A colder and drier airmass will settle into the region for
  Thanksgiving and Black Friday, but there is a lot of uncertainty
  in the forecast for Saturday and beyond.
  

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 400 PM EST MON NOV 24 2025

Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered in the
vicinity of Cuba and extended across the FL peninsula to the
Appalachians to Great Lakes. Further west, an upper low was
centered in KS with an upper trough south into the Southern
Plains. There were weaker shortwaves/impulses in the southwest
flow between the ridging and this trough with these moving from
the Southern Plains across the Arklatex region toward the TN and
OH Valleys. Further upstream, a shortwave trough was moving 
across Alberta into MT/Norther sections of the Rockies as it
working around upper level ridging that extended from the eastern
Pacific north west of the West Coast of the U.S. and BC. At the
surface, a ridge of high pressure was centered over the mid
Atlantic vicinity while sfc low pressure was centered in OK, with
a warm front extending to the northern Gulf and a cold front
trailing into TX. Further north a frontal zone extended into the
upper MS Valley and northern Plains to a sfc low in MT and then
eventually to CA. High and mid level moisture has already begun 
to increase across the Commonwealth ahead of the approaching 
system with clouds at these levels having spread into eastern KY 
from midday through the afternoon. Following the dense fog this 
morning, temperatures have recovered to above normal levels, into 
the upper 50s to mid 60s range. 

The upper low currently in KS is expected to weaken to an open 
wave tonight with the resulting shortwave expected to extend from
near or just west of Lake MI to the Lower OH Valley and TN Valley
to Gulf states near dawn on Tuesday. Weaker lead disturbances in 
southwest flow should also track across the Commonwealth tonight. 
Meanwhile, the upstream shortwave currently extending into MT and
sections of the Rockies should trek to the Dakotas/northern to 
central Plains area. The occluded sfc low preceding the initial 
weakening shortwave should move into the Lower OH Valley/western 
KY later tonight with the triple point low reaching sections of 
the TN Valley/Memphis vicinity. At the same time, the warm front 
associated with this system will lift north and northeast and 
into sections of the TN to southeast states. On Wednesday, the 
initial shortwave trough should track across the central to 
eastern Great Lakes and the OH Valley. The occluded sfc low and 
the triple point should track north and northwest of eastern KY 
with the warm front lifting north and east of the area by evening 
while the trailing cold front arrives during the evening.

Behind that shortwave southwest flow aloft will remain from the 
MS Valley to the eastern Conus in advance of the next shortwave 
trough that is expected to close off to an upper level low as it 
moves across SD to the MN/IA border vicinity and the associated 
500 mb trough axis extends south across the central Conus. A 
preceding shortwave trough is progged to move across the Lower OH
Valley on Tuesday night with the upper low expected to reach WI 
and the associated trough axis the mid to Lower MS Valley to end 
the short term period. The initial cold front will cross eastern 
KY Tuesday evening into Tuesday night while the sfc low ahead of 
the upper low and 500 mb trough reaches the western Great Lakes 
while the trailing secondary front nears eastern KY late.

Moisture will continue to increase on southwest flow this evening
and tonight and PW is progged to reach the 0.85 to 1.20 inch range
by dawn on Tuesday or the 90th to 95th percentile per 12Z HREF. 
Forcing from the approaching low pressure system and passing mid 
level waves results in high confidence for showers tonight to 
produce measurable rain for most locations. Moisture remains near
these levels ahead of the shortwave into the afternoon, before a 
bit of a decrease for late in the afternoon and night. However, 
the continued approach of the low pressure system as well as 
another shortwave and the trough axis as well as the first cold 
front and the secondary one for Tuesday evening into Tuesday 
night will result in continued high chance to categorical chances
for showers. SBCAPE should be minimal, no more than 200 J/KG on 
Tuesday evening per HREF mean while MUCAPE late Tuesday afternoon 
to early evening per the RAP peaks in the 150 to 450 J/kG range. 
Shear will be fairly ample across souther locations, but with 
minimal SBCAPE only a strong storm or two appears possible at 
this range especially when coupled with recent CAMS. In the HWO 
and key messages above, the mention of possible strong storms 
south of the Hal Rogers Pkwy/ KY 80 corridor was maintained. 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 447 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

The beginning of the long term forecast period is marked by the 
passage of a well-defined cold front. On Wednesday morning, a 
vertically stacked and likely occluded low pressure system will be 
spinning over the Northern Great Lakes, with its trailing cold front 
sweeping through the Greater Ohio River Valley. Dry air is forecast 
to wrap around the southwest side of that low, leaving Wednesday's 
boundary with much less precipitable water to work with than on the 
day prior. A few pre-frontal rain showers remain possible on 
Wednesday morning, but gusty post-frontal winds out of the west will 
quickly advect a much cooler and drier continental airmass into the 
region. This will likely limit the amount of diurnal warming 
realized on Wednesday afternoon, and many locations will actually 
see temperatures steadily decrease throughout the day. MaxTs will 
likely struggle to warm above 55 degrees, and the LREF Grand Ensemble 
data depicts only a 40% chance of highs warmer than this threshold. 
Once the sun goes down, temperatures will plummet into the 30s, with 
widespread overnight MinTs below freezing. 

Wednesday's frontal passage sets the stage for a rather chilly 
Thanksgiving Day. A surface high pressure system will build into the 
region behind the front while broad troughing sets up aloft over 
much of the Eastern CONUS. Some high-/mid-level clouds might linger 
into Thursday morning, but the continued advection of cold and dry 
air into the column favors a mostly sunny sensible weather forecast 
with highs in the upper 30s north of the Mountain Parkway and in the 
lower 40s further to the south. Models collectively resolve less 
cloud cover and colder 850mb temperatures on Thursday night, which 
could turn out to be one of the coldest nights of the season thus 
far. Efficient radiational cooling should allow sheltered and shaded 
valleys to dip into the teens overnight, but even the relatively 
warmer ridgetops will cool into the lower half of the 20s. Expect 
similar, if not slightly cooler, conditions to continue on Black 
Friday before the pattern shifts next weekend. 

The broad midlevel troughing associated with Thursday and Friday's 
colder weather looks to lift northeast overnight into Saturday. This 
will set up a regime of quasi-zonal flow aloft, and midlevel 
geopotential height rises indicate a general warming trend. The 
exact arrival time and magnitude of that warmer airmass remains 
somewhat ambiguous though. Some guidance keeps cold air around just 
long enough to interact with a shortwave disturbance and yield some 
mixed snow/rain in the Bluegrass region on Saturday. Others show the 
better precipitation chances arriving on Sunday after another day's 
worth of WAA. The compounding differences result in significant 
model spread and reduced forecast confidence for Saturday and 
beyond, but the synoptic features at play point towards primarily 
liquid precipitation and seasonably mild temperatures for the end of 
November and the start of December.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST MON NOV 24 2025

VFR was reported at issuance time and VFR should prevail for most
of, it not the entire period. After 12Z, MVFR may spread as far 
east at KSYM, KLOZ, and KSME. Shower chances spread across the
area between about 00Z and 08Z, in advance of a warm front that
lifts into the area ahead of low pressure tracking from the
Arklatex into the OH Valley. Showers overnight could lead to 
brief visibility reductions, but VFR should prevail. Winds will 
be light and variable through the 03Z to 06Z timeframe, before 
increasing from the southeast to south to 10KT or less through 
around 12Z. Thereafter, south to southwest winds at 5 to 13KT are 
expected with gusts as high as 20 to 25KT. However, until 
sustained winds increase, a threat of LLWS is anticipated between
about 03Z in the west and lingering as late as 15Z to 16Z in the 
more northern and eastern locations. 

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...JP

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059 
FXUS64 KLIX 160802
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
202 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 156 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

- Above normal temperatures expected through the start of next week.
 
- Some patchy dense fog could develop tonight, especially along
  river drainage basins. Remember to slow down and use your low
  beam headlights if you encounter dense fog while driving. 

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 156 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Dense fog advisory has been issued for a large portion of the
area. This should be a patchy dense situation so not all areas
will see reduced vis. There has been some smoldering fire activity
over the last few days that will add to the lower vis as well and
these areas could see vis fall to near or at zero in super fog. 
The type is radiational so we expect it to remain away from heat 
islands like cities and heavily traveled roadways. But, moisture 
levels have risen over the last 24 hours bringing up the 
possibility that these heat island areas could also see some fog 
by sunrise. If this looks like it will be the case, we will spread
the advisory into these areas later this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1029 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

At the surface we will continue to see high pressure centered to
the east of us dominate the pattern. This surface high pressure
paired with our area sitting on the eastern side of an upper level
ridge will keep conditions relatively dry in terms of
precipitation. These dry conditions look to last through the short
term period. Additionally, that upper level ridge will allow us 
to see warmer conditions, which we already saw a little of 
earlier Saturday. Each day is expected to see afternoon high 
temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. 

The main story of the short term will continue to be the potential
for fog development. Conditions tonight once again look favorable
for some fog development, however it is looking to be more patchy
than widespread. We look to see some high clouds move in 
gradually through the night which may somewhat limit our 
radiational cooling to an extent. Models are hitting areas north 
of Baton Rouge the most and expect the river basins to also see a 
better chance for this patchy dense fog. Regardless of this, with
ongoing fires in the Atchafalaya basin and that lining up with the
areas of the best fog probabilities, there remains a chance for
localized super fog in these areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 1029 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Into the long term period, our upper level ridge is mostly
flattened out by a shortwave trough tracking across the Central
Plains. Additionally, onshore flow starts to pick up towards mid
week helping to increase our moisture across the area. Our 
warming trend looks to peak on Wednesday as we see high 
temperatures reach the mid 80s for a good chunk of the area. It is
worth noting, Baton Rouge has a high temperatures record 
Wednesday of 86 set in 1903, our current forecasted high is 85.
While there is still plenty of time for the forecast to change,
the fact that our forecast is so close to record values shows how
unseasonably warm we will be. Climate normal highs this time of
year are in the low 70s, so we will be running a good 10 to even 
15 degrees above that.

Later in the period our next potential weather maker will move
across the region. A trough looks to dig down through the desert
southwest and slide up towards the Upper Midwest through late
week. Given this is late in the period there are still quite a bur
of uncertainties, but as of now we do see a ramp up in PoPs in the
forecast with ~60% by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1029 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Prevailing VFR at all terminals and this holds through the rest of
today. We may see similar conditions to last night, which would
promote fog development, though possibly less coverage. Likely 
more of a patchy dense situation rather than widespread. Timing
would be a couple hours before sunrise until just after sunrise. 
Given this patchy fog, IFR to LIFR conditions at some terminals 
will be possible due to visibility. After sunrise the fog will 
burn off and all terminals return to VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1029 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Surface high pressure will generally remain centered over the 
Southeast US through much of the forecast period. This will allow 
for a continuation of onshore flow. Overall, the flow should remain 
light with favorable winds and seas through the weekend and into the 
start of next week. Progressing into late next week, a cold front 
moving through will bring the potential for hazardous winds and 
seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  80  57  79  58 /   0   0   0   0 
BTR  82  58  82  61 /   0   0   0   0 
ASD  79  55  79  57 /   0   0   0   0 
MSY  82  61  80  62 /   0   0   0   0 
GPT  78  58  76  59 /   0   0   0   0 
PQL  79  55  78  57 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ037-039-
     056>060-065>068-071-076-079>086-088-090.

GM...None.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ070-071-
     077-083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HL
LONG TERM....HL
AVIATION...HL
MARINE...HL