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JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 12, 8:05 PM EDT

819 
FXUS63 KJKL 130005
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
805 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled weather will continue into tonight as a front lingers
  in the vicinity of eastern Kentucky.

- Locally heavy rainfall is expected at times into the evening,
  which could lead to isolated flash flooding.

- Temperatures will increase to well above normal, or even near
  record, levels by the middle of next week. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 452 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026

An area of light to moderate rain continues across portions of 
southeastern Kentucky late this afternoon, along with generally 
more discrete activity over the Bluegrass and west of Lake
Cumberland. The clouds and precipitation have held temperatures 
on the cool side, ranging mainly in the 70s to lower 80s. Also, the
heaviest rainfall totals have fallen outside of the Flood Watch 
area so far, with no reported impacts, but trends will need 
continued monitoring through the evening. Instability remains on 
the weak, skinny side, generally between 1000 and 1500 J/kg of 
MLCAPE, with anomalously moist PWATs near 2.0 inches, a deep warm-
cloud layer, and weak Corfidi upstream vectors around 10 kts or 
less--all still favorable for torrential rainfall and 
backbuilding. The latest surface analysis shows a warm frontal 
boundary draped northeast of the area from North Carolina up into 
central West Virginia, across Ohio, to over southern Lake 
Michigan. Meanwhile, a cold front extends from Ontario 
southwestward over Chicago and St. Louis. Looking aloft, a 
500 hPa shortwave trough axis extends from Cincinnati to 
Nashville to Huntsville. Additional weaker shortwave energy is 
located upstream along the cold front.

The primary focus through this evening will be continued rounds of
convection and the potential for training and backbuilding leading
to instances of isolated flash flooding ahead of the upper-level
shortwave trough. As mentioned prior, most of the substantial 
rainfall has occurred outside of the Flood Watch, and guidance is 
not hitting the Flood Watch area particularly hard this evening. 
However, given the favorable environment and mediocre CAM
performance, the Watch will remain in place for now. Otherwise, 
look for convection to diminish this evening as the 500 hPa trough
axis passes overhead. Lingering low-level moisture will then favor
plenty of fog and low stratus overnight. Additionally, a second 
700 hPa vort lobe will pass late tonight and Sunday morning, when 
model soundings still show a little instability in the lowest few 
hundred hPa of the troposphere -- perhaps enough for a few light 
showers in addition to drizzle. Therefore, there is still a low 
chance of precipitation (10 to 30 percent) in the forecast closer 
to daybreak. Otherwise, low-level moisture will gradually thin 
during the day Sunday as weak 500 hPa shortwave ridging moves 
overhead. The aforementioned cold front then approaches Sunday 
evening from the northwest and sags southward across the CWA 
Sunday night. Upper-level support appears to be fading as the 
boundary approaches, but a few showers or thunderstorms cannot be 
ruled out, with the best chances toward and northwest of I-64.

In sensible weather terms, look for showers and thunderstorms to
impact much of the area through this evening, though a few places
could stay dry. Where activity is most persistent, there could be
instances of flooding. Otherwise, it will be mild and muggy, with
fog, variable cloud cover, and perhaps a few light showers or 
patchy drizzle late. Look for low temperatures ranging through 
the mid to upper 60s. Looking ahead to Sunday, morning low clouds 
and fog yield to increasing sunshine. It will be seasonably warm, 
with highs in the lower to middle 80s. Clouds increase Sunday 
evening and give way to a chance of showers and thunderstorms, 
with the best chances in the northwest. It will again be 
seasonably mild, with lows ranging through the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026

To open the extended period, prominent features at 500 mb include a
trough over the Northeast, a ridge extending from the Upper Midwest
down through the Mississippi Valley, while a second trough is modeled
over the Northern Rockies. The upper pattern remains fairly
progressive, with the ridge moving east over the Southeast US and Ohio
Valley by Tuesday, lasting through Wednesday. Thursday through
Saturday, the second trough modeled over the Northern Rockies by
Monday will slowly break the upper ridge down, ushering in cooler
weather for Friday and Saturday.

For sensible weather, the new work week starts with a surface cold
front having just passed southeast of the area. Some lingering
isolated showers remain possible early along the Virginia-Kentucky
border. Some residual river valley fog should mix out by mid-morning.
Temperatures will be cooler, ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s
from north to south. A mix of sun and clouds can be expected early,
becoming fair in the afternoon and evening. With skies clearing out
Monday night and high pressure building in, temperatures cool into the
low to mid 50s in the valleys, with upper 50s to low 60s along ridge
tops. River valley fog is expected to develop again Monday night
before mixing out Tuesday morning.

With the ridge shifting into the Southeast, high pressure builds into
the region, leading to temperatures warming into the upper 80s to low
90s through Thursday. Shortwave energy associated with the second
trough brings shower and storm chances back to the CWA Thursday
through Saturday. A cold front looks to progress into the forecast
area from the Ohio Valley before stalling out Saturday. Agreement
among model and ensemble guidance does widen heading towards the end
of the week. With troughing energy seemingly breaking down the ridge
heading into the weekend, high temperatures lax some, ranging from
the mid 80s to upper 80s north to south on Friday, and low 80s to
mid 80s north to south on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026

Widely varying conditions were in place across eastern Kentucky
at the 00z TAF issuance, ranging from IFR under low clouds to VFR
under clear skies. A few showers will remain possible this evening
with the passage of an upper level trough, but most locations
should remain rain-free. Of more note, fog and/or low stratus are
expected to develop overnight amidst weak upslope flow and the
leftover moisture from today's rainfall. This will lead to poor 
flying conditions across much of the area through daybreak Sunday 
with IFR or worse conditions probable. Winds will remain light and
variable overnight and then become westerly around 5 knots or 
less during the day on Sunday. 

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ044-052-104-106-107-109-
110-119-120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON

Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 12, 8:05 PM EDT

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Cyclist critically injured in Sussex Drive crash

A cyclist was critically injured in a collision with a vehicle at Sussex Drive and Bruyère Street Monday morning, Ottawa paramedics say.

Source: Cyclist critically injured in Sussex Drive crash

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LIX issues Special Weather Statement [wind: 40 MPH, hail: 0.00 IN]  for Northern Hancock, Pearl River [MS] till 5:30 PM CDT

207 
WWUS84 KLIX 112139
SPSLIX

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
439 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
 
MSZ077-083-112230-
Northern Hancock MS-Pearl River MS-
439 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN HANCOCK
AND PEARL RIVER COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM CDT
...

At 439 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Poplarville, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around 
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Poplarville and Mcneil.

This includes Interstate 59 in Mississippi between mile markers 13
and 42.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. 

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3056 8934 3051 8937 3070 8980 3100 8958
      3101 8951 3100 8950 3100 8947 3098 8947
      3098 8943 3101 8942 3101 8935
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 304DEG 9KT 3085 8954 

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

$$

HRL

Source: LIX issues Special Weather Statement [wind: 40 MPH, hail: 0.00 IN]  for Northern Hancock, Pearl River [MS] till 5:30 PM CDT

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1 NNE New Castle Northw [Lawrence Co, PA] 911 Call Center reports Tstm Wnd Dmg at 5:40 PM EDT -- Wires down across the road. Time estimated via radar.

408 
NWUS51 KPBZ 132211
LSRPBZ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
611 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNE New Castle Northw 41.04N 80.34W
09/13/2026                   Lawrence           PA   911 Call Center  

            Wires down across the road. Time estimated 
            via radar. 


&&

$$

MLB

Source: 1 NNE New Castle Northw [Lawrence Co, PA] 911 Call Center reports Tstm Wnd Dmg at 5:40 PM EDT -- Wires down across the road. Time estimated via radar.

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The Weather Prediction Center issues Day 3 Marginal Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook at Sep 13, 20:03z for portions of IWX

Sorry, product text is unavailable.

Source: The Weather Prediction Center issues Day 3 Marginal Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook at Sep 13, 20:03z for portions of IWX

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