81
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 18, 6:48 AM EST904
FXUS63 KJKL 181148
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
648 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Precipitation is expected at times over the next week, mainly
Tuesday through Friday night.
- Above normal temperatures will persist into Wednesday, with any
precipitation occurring as rain.
- Colder temperatures arrive Wednesday night, and much of the area
could see precipitation occur as snow at times after that
point, but little or no accumulation is expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 432 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
Variably cloudy skies and mild temperatures are found across the
East Kentucky Coalfield this morning. Thermometers range from the
upper 30s in the far eastern sheltered hollows to the mid 50s over
the thermal belt ridges. The latest surface analysis shows high
pressure centered north of the Bahamas, east of a 500H ridge
extending from the Florida Keys northward to over the Ohio Valley.
To our north, a nearly vertically stacked low is passing near/over
James Bay. A frontal boundary extends south from this low across the
Eastern Great Lakes and then north of the Ohio River through the
Ozarks to a potent ~996 mb low east of Lubbock, Texas. The parent
system is an ~552 dam closed low passing near/over El Paso,
Texas.
Weak low-level WAA will ensue today over the Ohio Valley and
strengthen tonight and tomorrow as the aforementioned low pressure
races north northeast to near International Falls, Minnesota by 00z
Wednesday and occludes. In response, the boundary to our north
will shift back north as a warm front while a cold front sweeping
around the southern side of the low will approach the Coalfields
from the west by late Tuesday evening.
In sensible terms, expect variable cloud cover today with some thin
spots at times, yielding balmy highs of 65 to 70 degrees.
Temperatures remain mild tonight, ranging from the mid 40s in the
sheltered eastern valleys that decouple to the mid 50s on thermal
belt ridges and over/west of the Escarpment. Lows may be established
relatively early in the night as cloud cover increases and winds
pick up later in the night. Showers move into the Bluegrass and Lake
Cumberland counties by around or just before dawn and spread across
the remainder of the area by midday Tuesday. A few thunderstorms
are possible as well. The LREF guidance indicates good chances (40
to 70%) of at least 0.25 inch of rain, highest near Lake
Cumberland and lowest near/east of US-23. Tuesday will remain mild
with forecast highs in the mid to upper 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 357 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
The forecast period begins with the area on the backside of an
exiting cold front but as the parent low, responsible for the cold
front, is wrapped up into another circulation; the cold front will
be abandoned to the east of the area. The new circulation quickly
develops at the same time as the surface cold front crosses through
the area. This vertically stacked system will quickly eject out of
the Desert Southwest and rapidly move toward the western Great
Lakes. This is the circulation that will absorb that low that
brought the cold front through prior to the start of the forecast
window. As this secondary, stronger system begins to dive southeast
toward the forecast area, increasing cold air will filter into the
region and with the approach of the new system, renewed PoP chances
are expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the cold front
dives toward the CWA. With the cold air building into the region and
existing PoP chances, snowflakes may begin to mix into the rain
showers from early Thursday morning through early Friday afternoon.
Thermal profiles through the day support this possibility and a
little more clarity exists with this system as multiple models runs
continue to remain in agreement with this scenario. However, there's
been a slight but little adjustment to the southeasterly location of
the secondary system over the last few runs which could bring in
colder air leading to more snow showers than rain-snow mix. There
are GFS and ECMWF individual ensemble members that portray this
scenario but the went the with NBM solution that starts warmer that
leads to falling temperatures Wednesday night which will lead to
increased rain-snow chances for the remainder of the work week.
Also, must mention that due to widespread above freezing ground
temperatures; snow accumulations aren't expected across the lower
elevation. However, the high terrain across the southeastern
portions of the CWA will be below freezing for the duration of the
event and could lead to light accumulations in those areas.
Lingering backside rain-snow showers will persist through the
morning Friday before warming back up and transitioning to all rain
but as the system pulls off to the northeast, showers will dissipate
from southwest to northeast before coming to an end by Saturday
morning.
Surface high pressure will build back into the area starting
Saturday morning and persisting through the remainder of the
weekend. While surface high pressure exists, upper-level
northwesterly flow will continue to promote CAA into the region and
bring more seasonal temperatures to the area for the weekend.
However, models begin to hint at a possible system developing off
the Rockies early Sunday morning and tracking toward the CWA by
Sunday afternoon. This system is forecast to bring a warm front
through the region and advect warmer temperatures and a return of
rain chances for Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 647 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at the TAF sites through
the period. Localized valley fog in southeast KY early this
morning should lift/dissipate by 15z. High clouds will continue
streaming across our area today and early tonight. Additionally,
a lower secondary cloud layer around 5kft AGL will linger over
the northern half of the CWA through at least late morning/midday
before diminishing/dissipating. Ceilings lower again late tonight.
Winds will be variable to southeasterly at around 5 kts today
then turning more southerly tonight.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 18, 6:48 AM EST--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
82
COLUMBUS OH Nov 17 Climate Report: High: 62 Low: 40 Precip: 0.0" Snow: 0.0" Snow Depth: 0"987
CDUS41 KILN 172152
CLICMH
CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
452 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
...................................
...THE COLUMBUS OH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NOVEMBER 17 2024...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD: 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD: 1869 TO 2024
WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 62 4:30 PM 76 1958 52 10 60
MINIMUM 40 7:52 AM 13 1959 35 5 44
AVERAGE 51 43 8 52
PRECIPITATION (IN)
TODAY 0.00 1.61 1993 0.09 -0.09 0.70
MONTH TO DATE 2.24 1.56 0.68 0.81
SINCE SEP 1 4.97 7.60 -2.63 4.69
SINCE JAN 1 29.45 37.21 -7.76 37.12
SNOWFALL (IN)
TODAY 0.0 6.0 1980 0.1 -0.1 0.0
MONTH TO DATE 0.0 0.5 -0.5 0.0
SINCE SEP 1 0.1 0.7 -0.6 T
SINCE JUL 1 0.1 0.7 -0.6 T
SNOW DEPTH 0
DEGREE DAYS
HEATING
TODAY 14 22 -8 13
MONTH TO DATE 197 324 -127 272
SINCE SEP 1 430 708 -278 540
SINCE JUL 1 433 711 -278 540
COOLING
TODAY 0 0 0 0
MONTH TO DATE 10 0 10 0
SINCE SEP 1 256 143 113 168
SINCE JAN 1 1455 1069 386 992
...................................................................
WIND (MPH)
HIGHEST WIND SPEED 15 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION S (170)
HIGHEST GUST SPEED 20 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION S (170)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED 7.1
SKY COVER
POSSIBLE SUNSHINE MM
AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.7
WEATHER CONDITIONS
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
HIGHEST 93
LOWEST 58
AVERAGE 76
..........................................................
THE COLUMBUS OH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
NORMAL RECORD YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 51 75 2016
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 34 10 1880
SUNRISE AND SUNSET
NOVEMBER 17 2024......SUNRISE 7:20 AM EST SUNSET 5:13 PM EST
NOVEMBER 18 2024......SUNRISE 7:21 AM EST SUNSET 5:13 PM EST
- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
$$
Source: COLUMBUS OH Nov 17 Climate Report: High: 62 Low: 40 Precip: 0.0" Snow: 0.0" Snow Depth: 0"--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
83
When did Christmas cards get so intense? As the mental load piles up, some families are opting out When they were first conceived, Christmas cards were meant to save time. Now, depending on your point of view, modern Christmas cards are either a cherished custom that brings you joy, or an unnecessary burden during a time of year when the mental load is already heavy. Source: When did Christmas cards get so intense? As the mental load piles up, some families are opting out----------------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
84
Salem [Essex Co, MA] Law Enforcement reports Coastal Flood at 11:09 AM EST -- Coastal flooding on Bridge and Commercial St near dog park reported. Relayed via amateur radio.315
NWUS51 KBOX 161719
LSRBOX
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1219 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1023 AM Coastal Flood Newbury 42.77N 70.86W
11/16/2024 Essex MA Law Enforcement
Minor street flooding on Newman Rd. Relayed
via amateur radio.
1048 AM Coastal Flood Boston 42.31N 71.05W
11/16/2024 Suffolk MA Local Official
Only one lane per direction of travel open
due to coastal flooding on Morrissey Blvd
between UMass-Boston and Freeport St per
DCR. Relayed via amateur radio.
1109 AM Coastal Flood Hingham 42.25N 70.86W
11/16/2024 Plymouth MA Law Enforcement
Minor coastal flooding reported on Kilby St.
Relayed via amateur radio.
1109 AM Coastal Flood Salem 42.52N 70.90W
11/16/2024 Essex MA Law Enforcement
Coastal flooding on Bridge and Commercial St
near dog park reported. Relayed via amateur
radio.
&&
$$
Source: Salem [Essex Co, MA] Law Enforcement reports Coastal Flood at 11:09 AM EST -- Coastal flooding on Bridge and Commercial St near dog park reported. Relayed via amateur radio.---------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
85
National Hurricane Center issues ADVISORY 15A for TROPICAL STORM SARA INTERMEDIATE476
WTNT34 KNHC 171140
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
600 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024
...SARA NEARING LANDFALL ALONG THE BELIZE COAST WITH HEAVY RAINS
MOVING INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 87.9W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla westward to the
Honduras-Guatemala border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
* The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* The coast of Belize
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 87.9 West. Sara is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this
general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected
through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will make
landfall in Belize later this morning or around midday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Only small fluctuations in strength are anticipated until landfall.
Weakening is forecast after the storm moves inland, and dissipation
is expected over the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula
tonight or on Monday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25
inches with isolated storm totals around 40 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.
Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain
with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This
will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along
with the potential of mudslides.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents
WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
in the warning area in portions of Honduras, Guatemala, Belize,
and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next several hours.
STORM SURGE:
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara
crosses the coast of Belize. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Source: National Hurricane Center issues ADVISORY 15A for TROPICAL STORM SARA INTERMEDIATE--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
86
MOB continues Coastal Flood Advisory for Baldwin Central, Mobile Central [AL] till Nov 18, 6:00 AM CST146
WHUS44 KMOB 180501
CFWMOB
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1101 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024
ALZ263-264-181315-
/O.CON.KMOB.CF.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-241118T1200Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.CF.Y.0010.241119T0000Z-241119T1200Z/
Mobile Central-Baldwin Central-
1101 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
MONDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO
6 AM CST TUESDAY...
* WHAT...For the first Coastal Flood Advisory, minor coastal
flooding. For the second Coastal Flood Advisory, minor coastal
flooding expected.
* WHERE...Mobile Central and Baldwin Central Counties.
* WHEN...For the first Coastal Flood Advisory, until 6 AM CST
Monday. For the second Coastal Flood Advisory, from 6 PM
Monday to 6 AM CST Tuesday.
* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only
isolated road closures expected.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Both eastbound and westbound 1-10 ramps on
US 90/98 Causeway can be closed after becoming impassable due to
flood waters. Areas around the I-10 ramps (especially the east
bound on-ramp and the west bound off-ramp) are often flooded to
the point that they become impassable and closed to traffic.
Actual lanes of US 90/98 Causeway (mainly eastbound, sometimes
westbound) begin to flood. Locations along Highway 163 (Dauphin
Island Parkway) north of the Dog River Bridge begin to flood.
Widespread minor flooding of docks, piers, boat ramps and other
low- lying areas across Mobile Bay.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.
&&
$$
ALZ265-266-FLZ202-204-206-181315-
/O.CON.KMOB.CF.Y.0010.241119T0000Z-241119T1200Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.SU.Y.0018.241119T0300Z-241120T1200Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.RP.S.0037.241118T1200Z-241121T0000Z/
Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-
Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Coastal-
1101 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM CST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO
6 AM CST TUESDAY...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM
CST WEDNESDAY...
* WHAT...For the High Rip Current Risk, dangerous rip currents
expected. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, minor coastal
flooding expected. For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking
waves of 4 to 6 feet expected in the surf zone.
* WHERE...In Alabama, Mobile Coastal and Baldwin Coastal
Counties. In Florida, Escambia Coastal, Santa Rosa Coastal and
Okaloosa Coastal Counties.
* WHEN...For the High Rip Current Risk, from 6 AM CST Monday
through Wednesday afternoon. For the Coastal Flood Advisory,
from 6 PM Monday to 6 AM CST Tuesday. For the High Surf
Advisory, from 9 PM Monday to 6 AM CST Wednesday.
* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only
isolated road closures expected. Dangerous swimming and
surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents
can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper
water.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A significant amount of water can cover
portions of Fort Pickens Road, particularly from about 2 miles
east of Fort Pickens eastward to near the far west end of
Pensacola Beach. The road often becomes impassable at this water
level, especially if combined with high surf. Significant amount
of water across portions of Highway 399 through the Gulf Islands
National Seashore, particularly around the Opal Beach area. High
water impacts significant portions of Shell Belt and Coden Belt
Roads, can result in limited travel and some full closers.
Portions of County Road 1 near Weeks Bay may become impassable
due to flood waters. Minor beach erosion can occur, primarily
when combined with high surf.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.
Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to
dangerous surf conditions.
Swim near a lifeguard. If caught in a rip current, relax and
float. Don't swim against the current. If able, swim in a
direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the
shore and call or wave for help.
&&
$$
JLH
Source: MOB continues Coastal Flood Advisory for Baldwin Central, Mobile Central [AL] till Nov 18, 6:00 AM CST--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
87
PBZ continues Winter Storm Watch valid at Nov 21, 1:00 PM EST for Eastern Preston, Eastern Tucker, Western Tucker [WV] till Nov 23, 7:00 PM EST684
WWUS41 KPBZ 190017
WSWPBZ
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
717 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2024
WVZ512>514-191000-
/O.CON.KPBZ.WS.A.0006.241121T1800Z-241124T0000Z/
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
Including the cities of Thomas, Hendricks, Hazelton, Saint
George, Parsons, Davis, Rowlesburg, Terra Alta, and Canaan Valley
717 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2024
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations above 6
inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.
* WHERE...Eastern Preston, Eastern Tucker, and Western Tucker
Counties.
* WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through Saturday evening.
* IMPACTS...The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may
down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages. Travel
could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the
Thursday evening and Friday morning commutes. Gusty winds could
bring down tree branches.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely
necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter
storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains,
booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing.
Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help
you survive in case you become stranded.
&&
$$
Hefferan
Source: PBZ continues Winter Storm Watch valid at Nov 21, 1:00 PM EST for Eastern Preston, Eastern Tucker, Western Tucker [WV] till Nov 23, 7:00 PM EST--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
88
ERIE PA Nov 18 Climate Report: High: 57 Low: 43 Precip: Trace Snow: 0.0" Snow Depth: 0"651
CDUS41 KCLE 191927
CLIERI
CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND, OH
227 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
...................................
...THE ERIE PA CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NOVEMBER 18 2024...
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1873 TO 2024
WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
YESTERDAY
MAXIMUM 57 256 PM 75 2016 50 7 46
MINIMUM 43 858 PM 14 1959 36 7 38
2014
AVERAGE 50 43 7 42
PRECIPITATION (IN)
YESTERDAY T 0.12 -0.12 0.00
MONTH TO DATE 1.23 2.24 -1.01 1.03
SINCE SEP 1 5.46 10.94 -5.48 7.21
SINCE JAN 1 29.69 37.30 -7.61 37.89
SNOWFALL (IN)
YESTERDAY 0.0 0.3 -0.3 0.0
MONTH TO DATE 0.0 4.3 -4.3 T
SINCE SEP 1 T 4.4 -4.4 2.3
SINCE JUL 1 T 4.4 -4.4 2.3
SNOW DEPTH 0
DEGREE DAYS
HEATING
YESTERDAY 15 22 -7 23
MONTH TO DATE 235 348 -113 314
SINCE SEP 1 510 778 -268 658
SINCE JUL 1 516 790 -274 666
COOLING
YESTERDAY 0 0 0 0
MONTH TO DATE 10 0 10 0
SINCE SEP 1 172 104 68 129
SINCE JAN 1 943 753 190 590
...................................................................
WIND (MPH)
HIGHEST WIND SPEED 13 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION S (200)
HIGHEST GUST SPEED 17 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION S (200)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED 4.9
SKY COVER
POSSIBLE SUNSHINE MM
AVERAGE SKY COVER MM
WEATHER CONDITIONS
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.
LIGHT RAIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
HIGHEST MM
LOWEST MM
AVERAGE MM
..........................................................
THE ERIE PA CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
NORMAL RECORD YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 49 74 1985
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 36 12 2014
SUNRISE AND SUNSET
NOVEMBER 19 2024......SUNRISE 716 AM EST SUNSET 456 PM EST
NOVEMBER 20 2024......SUNRISE 718 AM EST SUNSET 455 PM EST
- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
$$
Source: ERIE PA Nov 18 Climate Report: High: 57 Low: 43 Precip: Trace Snow: 0.0" Snow Depth: 0"--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
89
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 15, 11:14 AM EST947
FXUS63 KIWX 151614
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1114 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- cloudy skies will remain through Saturday with highs in the
low/mid 50s.
- More rain and warmer conditions are expected Monday into Tuesday.
- Cooler conditions return by the end of next week with more
precipitation possible but forecast confidence is very low.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024
Drizzle and low clouds currently holding strong over the area and
will likely continue to do so well into the morning. Hi-res model
soundings show a deep (4-5 kft) layer of very moist conditions below
a strong subsidence inversion. Hi-res models further indicate
continued weak omega in this moist layer well into the late morning
that suggests at least patchy, light drizzle during this time given
persistent cyclonic flow within the moist layer and added theta-e
flux from warm Lake MI. Midlevel ridging/AVA does increase
substantially during this period but only acts to strengthen the
inversion and trapping the low level moisture. We don't get any
meaningful dry air advection/veering winds in the lowest levels
until the afternoon. This will bring an end to the drizzle but
expect low stratus to persist through the day and probably into
tonight given lingering boundary layer moisture under strong
inversion. This keeps an effective lid on temps with highs only a
few degrees warmer than present values. Also raised lows several
degrees based on expected cloud cover with generally low 40s,
possibly even holding in mid 40s.
Similar conditions likely to start the day Sat but WAA begins to
ramp up late Sat and into Sun as high-amplitude ridge axis passes
east of our longitude. Increasing southerly flow *might* bring a
break in the clouds late in the day but there will also be
increasing high clouds associated with next approaching trough.
Expect highs to remain in the low/mid 50s. The primary midlevel
circulation lifts well NW of our area and we only get brushed with
some minor height falls/CVA Sun night. There is a decent theta-e
plume ahead of this trough that will probably be aided by Lake MI
but any measurable precip will likely remain north of our CWA until
Sun night as the decaying "cold" front passes.
This front washes out across our area and quickly lifts back north
as a warm front late Mon. This is the first stage of a notable
pattern shift expected next week as a series of Pacific troughs move
over the country and eventually form a large cutoff low somewhere in
our region late week. The first trough lifts NE Mon night and brings
our next chance of widespread light-moderate rain in very similar
fashion to previous two systems. But this system will be quickly
followed by a stronger/deeper upper low late Tue/Wed. There remains
considerable uncertainty with very important details regarding
timing, track, and evolution of this upper low as deterministic and
ensemble guidance are still offering wildly variable solutions. What
we can say is that there will be a period of very warm temperatures
to start the week that will eventually transition to colder temps at
the end of the week. With a potential upper low and still very warm
lake temps, lake effect precip is certainly a possibility.
However...precip types, amounts and timing are extremely uncertain
at this time range. It will likely be several more days before any
of those details can be nailed down.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1114 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024
MVFR to low VFR stratocu should remained locked in under a
strengthening subsidence inversion through much of the period.
Light northwest winds near 8 knots will become light and
variable tonight as high pressure builds in.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...Steinwedel
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 15, 11:14 AM EST--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
90
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 17, 11:55 AM EST187
FXUS63 KIND 171655
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1155 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warming trend back to the 60s begins today
- Warmer than average weather continues through Tuesday
- Rain early in the week, especially Monday night
- Breezy and much cooler for the latter half of the work week into
the weekend, with potential for the first snowflakes Wednesday night
into Thursday, though accumulation does not appear likely
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2024
Forecast is in good shape this morning. Satellite shows plentiful
high level clouds across central Indiana as well as upstream of the
area. Some forcing was creating sprinkles across northeastern
Illinois and far northwest Indiana, moving northeast.
Forcing will remain north and west of central Indiana today, so kept
the forecast dry. Filtered sunshine is making it through the high
clouds locally, and webcams show this is true at other locations
around central Indiana.
Thus, still kept partly cloudy conditions across much of the area.
Believe that conditions will vary from partly to mostly cloudy
throughout the day as areas of thicker high clouds move through.
Will keep an eye on it and change to mostly cloudy all areas if
needed.
Warm advection should bring temperatures into the 60s today, even
with the expected sky cover.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 307 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2024
WAA will bring warmer temperatures to central Indiana today thanks
to southerly to southwesterly flow. Satelitte, meanwhile,
currently shows upper clouds increasing in coverage which is
expected to persist through the day. Highs today will range from
the low to mid 60s paired with wind speeds of around 10 mph.
Tonight will be a little more interesting as the surface high
currently sitting to the east of the area tracks southward while a
surface low from the southern plains approaches. This set up will
place the region on the periphery of the warm, moist sector tonight,
with the warm front draped just to the northwest. This will allow
for a low stratus deck to set up late tonight with a chance of light
rain. Also can't rule out patchy in this set up as moisture gets
trapped at the surface and winds become lighter. While moisture will
be coming out of the Gulf, most will stick to close to the low
itself leaving only a few hundredths of accumulation expected
before sunrise Monday. Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s
to low 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 307 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2024
A significant change is on the horizon for central Indiana during
the coming work week.
A strong, rapidly developing low pressure system will move north
northeast out of West Texas into the upper Midwest during the early
portion of the week. This will bring potential for showers early in
the week along with the warm front, with much higher rain chances
Monday night into early Tuesday with the associated cold or occluded
front as the primary warm conveyor belt moves across the area. The
potential rapid occlusion of this low, however, may limit rainfall
amounts across the area as the occlusion begins to cut off/narrow
integrated water vapor transport into the region Monday night,
keeping much more significant IVT further to our south and southeast.
In the wake of this first system, a larger upper low will
consolidate and drop into the Great Lakes and Northeast mid to late
week, though model handling of this feature and associated surface
response has changed significantly in recent model runs, lessening
the already low confidence in specifics later in the forecast period.
Nonetheless, broadly speaking, we can be confident that the latter
part of the work week into the weekend will be dramatically cooler,
likely the coolest temperatures of the young season thus far, with
multiple chances for showers with the upper low Wednesday into
Friday. Given the unseasonable warmth experienced much of the season
thus far, and quite borderline low level/surface wetbulb
temperatures, while the potential exists for the first snowflakes of
the season to fly at times Wednesday night into Thursday, either as
a mix or a few convective snow showers, no accumulation appears
likely at this time.
Below normal temperatures may persist beyond the 7 day period into
the Thanksgiving week.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1155 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2024
Impacts:
- MVFR ceilings developing overnight into Monday morning
- IFR possible at southern sites Monday morning
Discussion:
VFR conditions are expected through 06Z or so then MVFR ceilings
will develop at the southern sites near a warm front. MVFR ceilings
will spread north to the other sites by 12Z or so. IFR is possible
at KHUF/KBMG late tonight into Monday morning.
Southwest winds will prevail during the first half of the period
then winds will eventually become light southeast by 12Z Monday. A
few gusts around 15kt are possible this afternoon. Light rain may
fall late tonight into Monday.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...50
Source: IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 17, 11:55 AM EST--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
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