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Messages - ThreatWebInternal
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31
« on: Today at 08:13:05 AM »
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 23, 3:11 PM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...110 FXUS64 KLIX 232011 AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 311 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
Northern stream trough over Minnesota this afternoon with lead shortwaves over Iowa, the Texas Panhandle, and Baja California. At the surface, high pressure between Bermuda and the Bahamas had a westward extension into the eastern Gulf. A frontal boundary extended from Minnesota to Missouri to Texas. Locally, southerly flow was pumping moisture into the area on 15 to 20 mph southerly winds, and has brought mostly cloudy skies to much of the area this afternoon. Temperatures were mainly in the mid and upper 70s, but a few locations were right at 80 degrees. Dew points were in the lower and middle 60s. Radar indicated a few light rain showers or sprinkles across the extreme western portions of the CWA, but very few people in our CWA are seeing them this afternoon.
The shortwave over Texas is beginning to produce convection over Arkansas along Interstate 40 at mid afternoon. Deep moisture remains somewhat lacking locally this afternoon, although dew points are climbing into the mid 60s. We will have steep mid level lapse rates in place, of around 8C/km and CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg, but low level wind fields aren't particularly strong at this time. Most of the convection allowing models develop a larger area of convection from northeast Mississippi southwestward into Texas during the evening hours, but probably not moving into our area of responsibility over southwest Mississippi until perhaps 3 AM CDT.
Forecast soundings would be supportive of hail as the main threat, as well as damaging winds. However, most model solutions indicate storms will be weakening as they move into the area, with not much remaining of those storms by 9 or 10 AM. That being said, forecast soundings indicate that conditions could destabilize again during the afternoon if we get some sunshine. While the main troughing should be east of the area by midday, if any isolated storms can develop, they will again bring a threat of hail.
Clearing skies are expected Monday night across the area, with at least some potential for fog around sunrise Tuesday.
Overnight lows the next two nights will be mainly in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Highs Monday are likely to be in the mid and upper 70s, but if we get more sunshine than expected Monday afternoon, some lower 80s will be possible.
&&
.LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
Upper flow will primarily be northwesterly for the remainder of the workweek until a southern stream shortwave approaches the area Friday or Friday night. There is likely to be at least one period of showers and thunderstorms next weekend, probably Saturday.
The early week trough will only have drier air behind it and not cold air, so temperatures are going to be above normal during the day all week. Much of the area should see high temperatures get into the 80s on multiple days, with potentially mid 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. Normal highs for late March are in the lower and mid 70s. Overnight lows should be in the upper 40s to mid 50s, and we will likely be above those levels most mornings, if not all of them.
&&
.AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
Most terminals are currently VFR, but we'll see occasional MVFR conditions where cumulus becomes a little more plentiful, such as KMCB and KHDC. MVFR to IFR ceilings likely to become prevalent beyond 06z Monday through at least 15z Monday. Precipitation-wise, we could see a few SHRA by mid to late evening at KMCB and potentially KBTR, but any TSRA probably won't be until much later in the night as shortwave approaches from the west. Tried to limit mention of TSRA to a 6 hour window, but confidence isn't particularly strong. Better chances at southern terminals may actually be Monday afternoon, although forcing is much weaker at that time. Direct impacts of TSRA would generally be IFR visibilities and/or ceilings.
Southeast to south winds gusting to 25 knots will continue this afternoon, but should settle down to around 10 knots or less this evening.
&&
.MARINE... Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
Beyond the potential for thunderstorms later tonight into Monday, there should be a period of 48 hours or so with fairly benign conditions over the waters, with winds remaining well below 15 knots during that period. Wind and sea conditions will deteriorate somewhat beginning Thursday or Friday ahead of next weekend's weather system. Small Craft Exercise Caution or Small Craft Advisory conditions look likely, perhaps as early as Thursday night.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 61 77 55 84 / 70 40 0 0 BTR 63 81 59 85 / 70 60 10 0 ASD 64 80 59 84 / 60 70 10 0 MSY 65 78 62 82 / 50 70 10 0 GPT 63 76 58 79 / 50 70 10 0 PQL 61 79 57 81 / 50 70 10 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. &&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 23, 3:11 PM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
32
« on: Today at 08:13:05 AM »
The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 2 Marginal Convective Risk at Mar 22, 17:21z for portions of MOB950 WUUS02 KWNS 221723 PTSDY2
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2025
VALID TIME 231200Z - 241200Z
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 2
... TORNADO ...
0.02 36568941 37378796 37408753 37288613 36738569 34538612 33268692 32718734 31388892 31019035 31029312 31279453 31769509 32489500 32989460 33579343 35659072 36568941 0.05 32939181 33599008 33668914 33458883 32868889 32478954 32199047 32149130 32369188 32539192 32939181 &&
... HAIL ...
0.05 30689829 31309758 31739698 32829535 33219462 34999176 36109012 36708918 36848824 36828726 36058604 34868608 32368682 31488754 31258809 31068928 30889096 30619285 29929674 29879770 30059817 30259834 30689829 0.15 32669518 33189399 34579156 35718993 36188867 36198784 36018741 35698737 35298741 34788758 33848803 32988842 32438885 31948978 31629144 31569214 31449362 31449422 31559484 31879544 32249570 32439554 32599534 32669518 &&
... WIND ...
0.05 31339753 31739699 32349607 32909521 33259456 35019173 36938886 37298827 37788692 37658600 37228525 36528490 36028502 35798507 34578573 32358680 31478753 31238813 31088908 30709214 30379440 29929674 29869770 30069821 30269833 30689827 31339753 0.15 31639146 31449353 31449425 31549480 31869544 32239569 32429555 32629528 33189398 34319204 34559163 35688999 36188866 36208788 36028743 35748737 35288741 34798755 33348825 32978842 32448884 31958974 31639146 &&
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 2
... CATEGORICAL ...
SLGT 36198869 36208791 36038744 35758738 35368741 34788757 32958844 32458884 31958976 31619154 31459353 31449425 31579485 31899546 32239569 32419556 32599532 33199400 34569160 35698998 36198869 MRGL 36528491 35808508 34148593 32328682 31478753 31248808 31098907 30699224 29929678 29879771 30079819 30269834 30689828 31289762 31699708 32909522 33209463 35029172 35299132 37278827 37778691 37668603 37238525 36528491 TSTM 29089312 29479363 29649443 29449584 29439765 29959862 30399885 30849868 31579784 32619655 33829465 34219408 34869364 35649397 36069451 36659496 37299500 37889474 39859313 41649223 42429179 43319107 43619000 43278868 42718787 40818599 39118290 37328168 35708152 33378232 31678367 29548659
&& THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE DYR 40 SW CKV 40 S CKV 45 WSW BNA 45 NNE MSL MSL 45 NNE MEI 10 NNW MEI 40 NW PIB 15 W HEZ 30 SW IER 35 ENE LFK 25 NNW LFK 30 S TYR 20 WSW TYR 10 WNW TYR 15 NNE TYR 20 S TXK 35 NE PBF 40 ESE JBR 40 ENE DYR.
THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE CSV 10 S CSV 15 NE GAD 10 E SEM 30 W GZH 40 NNE MOB 30 SSE PIB 35 NNW LFT 50 SSW CLL 20 ENE BAZ 25 NNW BAZ 40 W AUS 45 NW AUS 15 NW TPL 10 ENE ACT 40 NNE TYR 40 WSW TXK 35 NE LIT 35 SSE BVX 30 ENE PAH 15 ENE OWB 40 SSW SDF 65 W LOZ 40 NNE CSV.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S LCH 40 SE BPT 30 NE GLS 30 NW LBX 30 SE BAZ 30 NNW SAT 55 E JCT 70 SSE BWD 35 W ACT 25 SE DAL 20 SW DEQ 20 ENE DEQ 40 NW HOT 25 SSE FYV 20 WNW FYV 10 WNW GMJ 30 WNW JLN 45 ENE CNU 25 E CDJ 30 WSW CID 30 ESE ALO 40 SSE LSE 25 SSE VOK 35 ENE MSN RAC 45 WSW FWA 35 WSW UNI 25 W BLF 10 W HKY 20 W AGS 35 ENE ABY 70 SW PFN.
Source: The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 2 Marginal Convective Risk at Mar 22, 17:21z for portions of MOB--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
33
« on: Today at 08:13:04 AM »
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 24, 9:56 AM EDT484 FXUS61 KPBZ 241356 AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 956 AM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS... Drier weather returns today with gusty winds and temperatures increasing to slightly above normal. Throughout the week, the current weather pattern will provide periodic chances for precipitation, but overall, the week will be largely dry.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather returns for most, but scattered showers possible this afternoon north of I-80. - Gusty winds, but just below advisory levels. ------------------------------------------------------------------- In the wake of the cold front, clouds are beginning to exit as water vapor imagery shows drier low and mid level air working in in west to southwest flow which will lift the remaining lower clouds out through the morning with lingering cirrus or perhaps a few high-based cumulus in spots during the midday and afternoon hours. An approaching upper trough north of Pittsburgh will increase clouds again north of I-80 this afternoon, with some scattered rain showers possible after 18Z or so, though they will have to battle increasing dry air in the low levels as dew points mix out some this afternoon despite southwest flow.
Winds will be notably gusty today with a strong pressure gradient and deep mixing. Cold advection in the low levels will steepen lapse rates and erode the weak inversion in place on the 12z sounding. Nearly all forecast soundings show the boundary layer extending up close to 700mb by the afternoon, tapping into stronger winds aloft. In general, guidance gives probabilities of 100%/60%/5% for >30mph/>40mph/>45mph respectively (although a few locally higher gusts are likely given the current synoptic situation and deep mixing). Latest analogs support these max values. Don't have the confidence that frequent advisory criteria (46 mph) gusts will be reached, even in Eastern Tucker County, so will continue mention in the HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES:
- Low PoPs north of I-80 tonight. - Low-probability showers possible Tuesday into Wednesday, mainly south of Pittsburgh. - Temperatures remain seasonable Tuesday, cooler on Wednesday. -------------------------------------------------------------------
Flow will veer more westerly tonight with upper trough arrival, and moisture will increase north of Pittsburgh. This will allow scattered rain and snow showers north of I-80. However, limited moisture penetration into the DGZ and falling inversion heights along with warm ground temperatures will keep accumulation and snow rates to a minimum.
Upper troughing remains in place on Tuesday, with temperatures remaining seasonable and a few degrees cooler than Monday. There continues to be some uncertainty related to crossing waves and possible precipitation Tuesday and Tuesday night. Global models still align with the last few days' trends of keeping most precipitation south of our area. However, as we come in range of the CAMs, HREF nudges PoPs into our area south of the Mason- Dixon, and the HRRR in particular has showers as far north as I-80 with the weak surface low farther north across the Virginias. Regardless, somewhere in between is likely the actual solution, with light shower chances increasing south of Pittsburgh Tuesday. A second wave will swing through late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Given thermal profiles, this will likely fall as a mix of rain and snow, with any light accumulation limited to the ridges Tuesday night.
Continued, but decreasing chances for light rain and snow showers is expected Wednesday as upper troughing lingers. Drier weather is then likely by Wednesday evening as surface high pressure begins to build. Continued cold advection in northwesterly flow will keep temperatures a bit below-average on Wednesday (highs in the 30s and 40s).
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Brief dry period under high pressure through Thursday. - Shower chances return for Friday and the weekend. - Temperatures remain seasonable through midweek before a likely warming trend. ------------------------------------------------------------------
Aforementioned surface high pressure should keep dry conditions through Thursday. Daily precipitation chances then return for Friday and the weekend, tied to uncertainty with shortwaves rotating through the upper flow, although overall, precipitation becomes more likely next weekend. Current expectation is that most, if not all, of this potential precipitation would be in the form of rain as opposed to snow.
While a return to, and then a rise above, seasonal norms is the most likely outcome, the uncertainty regarding flow evolution is playing havoc with ensemble temperature spreads towards next weekend. To illustrate: at Pittsburgh on Saturday, the spread between the 10th percentile max temperature (61 degrees) and the 90th percentile temperature (85 degrees) reaches 24 degrees on the current NBM run.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Several TAF sites remain at VFR with a lingering stratocumulus deck behind last night's cold front. Drier air working in on southwest wind should lift ceilings to VFR through the morning, with only cirrus and perhaps some isolated, high-based cumulus during the afternoon. VFR is forecast through the afternoon and the night with high confidence, save for perhaps FKL/DUJ, where a rain or snow shower is possible during the afternoon into the early evening, perhaps with a brief return of MVFR ceilings.
The main story today will be wind gusts. Deep mixing and a tight surface pressure gradient will lead to increasing wind gusts this morning, with frequent peaks of 25 to 35 knots from late morning into early evening. Wind will slowly veer more towards a westerly direction with time, with gusts slowly dropping off during the evening and early overnight hours.
Outlook... VFR is largely expected through mid week as the region generally sits within the dry slot of a fairly stagnant upper trough and some influence of surface high pressure to the southwest. Embedded shortwaves within the upper trough pattern may initiate low probability precipitation/restriction chances that favor FKL/DUJ and the higher terrain, but model variability remains high on these features.
A late week/weekend pattern shift to eastern CONUS ridging may come with a transition period featuring increasing precipitation and restriction chances.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...88 NEAR TERM...MLB/CL/88 SHORT TERM...Rackley LONG TERM...Rackley/CL AVIATION...CL/88
Source: PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 24, 9:56 AM EDT--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
34
« on: Today at 08:13:04 AM »
TOLEDO OH Mar 24 Climate Report: High: 44 Low: 28 Precip: 0.0" Snow: 0.0" Snow Depth: 0"912 CDUS41 KCLE 250529 CLITOL
CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND, OH 129 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
...................................
...THE TOLEDO OH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MARCH 24 2025...
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1873 TO 2025
WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 44 1202 AM 83 1910 52 -8 43 MINIMUM 28 1139 PM 1 1974 32 -4 21 AVERAGE 36 42 -6 32
PRECIPITATION (IN) YESTERDAY 0.00 0.08 -0.08 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 1.66 1.98 -0.32 2.75 SINCE MAR 1 1.66 1.98 -0.32 2.75 SINCE JAN 1 4.47 6.63 -2.16 8.01
SNOWFALL (IN) YESTERDAY 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 MONTH TO DATE 1.8 4.7 -2.9 0.1 SINCE MAR 1 1.8 4.7 -2.9 0.1 SINCE JUL 1 12.9 35.5 -22.6 9.6 SNOW DEPTH 0
DEGREE DAYS HEATING YESTERDAY 29 23 6 33 MONTH TO DATE 473 651 -178 498 SINCE MAR 1 473 651 -178 498
COOLING YESTERDAY 0 0 0 0 MONTH TO DATE 0 0 0 0 SINCE MAR 1 0 0 0 0 ...................................................................
WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 32 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION SW (240) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 43 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION SW (240) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 15.6
SKY COVER POSSIBLE SUNSHINE MM AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.7
WEATHER CONDITIONS THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT) HIGHEST 85 1000 PM LOWEST 53 500 PM AVERAGE 69
..........................................................
THE TOLEDO OH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY NORMAL RECORD YEAR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 52 82 1945 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 33 -4 1974
SUNRISE AND SUNSET MARCH 25 2025.........SUNRISE 730 AM EDT SUNSET 753 PM EDT MARCH 26 2025.........SUNRISE 728 AM EDT SUNSET 754 PM EDT
- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS. R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED. MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING. T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
$$
Source: TOLEDO OH Mar 24 Climate Report: High: 44 Low: 28 Precip: 0.0" Snow: 0.0" Snow Depth: 0"--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
35
« on: Today at 08:13:04 AM »
SOUTH BEND Mar 22 Climate Report: High: 49 Low: 36 Precip: 0.0" Snow: 0.0" Snow Depth: 0"849 CDUS43 KIWX 222110 CLISBN
CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 510 PM EDT SAT MAR 22 2025
...................................
...THE SOUTH BEND CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MARCH 22 2025... VALID AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1893 TO 2025
WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 49 1202 AM 83 2012 49 0 47 MINIMUM 36 921 AM 9 1906 29 7 31 AVERAGE 43 39 4 39
PRECIPITATION (IN) TODAY 0.00 0.89 1977 0.07 -0.07 0.02 MONTH TO DATE 3.79 1.67 2.12 2.80 SINCE MAR 1 3.79 1.67 2.12 2.80 SINCE JAN 1 6.43 6.64 -0.21 8.11
SNOWFALL (IN) TODAY 0.0 4.9 1977 0.1 -0.1 T MONTH TO DATE 0.4 5.9 -5.5 0.4 SINCE MAR 1 0.4 5.9 -5.5 0.4 SINCE JUL 1 38.1 62.6 -24.5 30.3 SNOW DEPTH 0
DEGREE DAYS HEATING TODAY 22 26 -4 26 MONTH TO DATE 498 658 -160 443 SINCE MAR 1 498 658 -160 443 SINCE JUL 1 4720 5392 -672 4282
COOLING TODAY 0 0 0 0 MONTH TO DATE 0 0 0 0 SINCE MAR 1 0 0 0 0 SINCE JAN 1 0 0 0 0 ...................................................................
WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 24 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION NW (320) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 33 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION NW (300) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 14.2
SKY COVER POSSIBLE SUNSHINE MM AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.8
WEATHER CONDITIONS THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT) HIGHEST 79 700 AM LOWEST 42 1200 AM AVERAGE 61
..........................................................
THE SOUTH BEND CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW NORMAL RECORD YEAR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 49 78 1907 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 29 9 1916 1940
SUNRISE AND SUNSET MARCH 22 2025.........SUNRISE 745 AM EDT SUNSET 800 PM EDT MARCH 23 2025.........SUNRISE 743 AM EDT SUNSET 801 PM EDT
- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS. R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED. MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING. T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
$$
Source: SOUTH BEND Mar 22 Climate Report: High: 49 Low: 36 Precip: 0.0" Snow: 0.0" Snow Depth: 0"--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
36
« on: Today at 08:13:03 AM »
INDIANAPOLIS IN Mar 24 Climate Report: High: 53 Low: 36 Precip: 0.0" Snow: 0.0" Snow Depth: 0"878 CDUS43 KIND 242033 CLIIND
CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 433 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2025
...................................
...THE INDIANAPOLIS IN CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MARCH 24 2025... VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1871 TO 2025
WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 53 255 PM 84 1910 55 -2 54 MINIMUM 36 651 AM 2 1974 36 0 31 AVERAGE 45 45 0 43
PRECIPITATION (IN) TODAY 0.00 2.76 1913 0.13 -0.13 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 2.08 2.78 -0.70 1.79 SINCE MAR 1 2.08 2.78 -0.70 1.79 SINCE JAN 1 4.77 8.33 -3.56 8.33
SNOWFALL (IN) TODAY 0.0 10.2 2018 0.1 -0.1 0.0 MONTH TO DATE 0.1 2.8 -2.7 T SINCE MAR 1 0.1 2.8 -2.7 T SINCE JUL 1 20.5 24.9 -4.4 8.2 SNOW DEPTH 0
...................................................................
WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 32 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION W (250) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 42 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION W (250) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 16.8
SKY COVER AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.4
WEATHER CONDITIONS THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT) HIGHEST 82 300 AM LOWEST 35 300 PM
..........................................................
THE INDIANAPOLIS IN CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW NORMAL RECORD YEAR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 56 81 2007 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 36 5 1974
SUNRISE AND SUNSET MARCH 24 2025.........SUNRISE 742 AM EDT SUNSET 802 PM EDT MARCH 25 2025.........SUNRISE 740 AM EDT SUNSET 803 PM EDT
- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS. R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED. MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING. T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
$$
Source: INDIANAPOLIS IN Mar 24 Climate Report: High: 53 Low: 36 Precip: 0.0" Snow: 0.0" Snow Depth: 0"--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
37
« on: Today at 08:13:03 AM »
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 23, 11:43 PM CDT513 FXUS63 KPAH 240443 AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1143 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and storms possible through early this evening. A few storms may be severe with large hail and damaging wind the main threats.
- Mainly dry and mild weather expected through most of the work week. Temperatures will be about five to ten degrees above normal values.
- The next chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms will arrive late this week into next weekend along with even warmer temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
A trough/frontal boundary sagging through the area this afternoon may touch off some scattered showers and storms, mainly over southern portions of western KY and southeast MO. That is where temperatures have warmed into the 60s with dewpoints sneaking up into the mid to upper 50s. Farther north temperatures have struggled to warm out of the upper 40s or low 50s today. SB CAPE is analyzed to push up close to 1000-1500 J/kg into western KY over the next few hours. Mid level lapse rates are still favorable for stronger updrafts (around 7C/km) over western KY and SEMO with shear values around 40-50kts. This would allow for a few strong to severe storms along the boundary this afternoon. CAMs develop a broken line over SEMO before quickly shifting the line through west Kentucky by 6 pm. This is in line with the SPCs slight risk expansion this afternoon. The main window for severe weather will be between 3 pm and roughly 6 pm before quickly moving out of the CWA.
Northwest flow will be in place across much of the central CONUS through much of this week before gradually flattening by Thursday. Upper-level disturbances will pass through the area on the northwest flow allowing for increased cloud cover at times along with a few chances of showers and storms. The first chance will be Tuesday with potentially a stronger system late in the week. The system seems to have slowed a bit, moving most of the precipitation and impactful weather to Friday into Saturday. WAA showers will develop Friday as moisture flow increases into the area with a better chance for showers and storms on Saturday as an upper level low deepens and a cold front pushes through the area. That system will be one to keep an eye on if temperatures warm enough ahead of it and enough moisture is dragged northward. That could potentially be the next risk of severe weather even though it is too early to say for sure at this time. Stay tuned for updates on that!
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
A cold front has cleared the area leaving northwesterly winds filtering drier air into the region. Where it rained a little bit of ground fog is possible but it should be very limited. VFR conditions with relatively light winds are forecast for tomorrow.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KC AVIATION...JGG
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 23, 11:43 PM CDT--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
38
« on: Today at 08:13:02 AM »
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 25, 2:44 PM EDT143 FXUS63 KLMK 251844 AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 244 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Light rain chances continue into late evening, mainly north of I-64.
* Warmer temperatures and increasing chances for showers and storms Friday through next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 244 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025
The main story for this afternoon continues to feature gradients across several different parameters. Extensive sky cover continues across our northern CWA, along with some light rain occurring beneath the left exit region of an upper jet. This continues to diminish in coverage through the evening, but overall will keep some slight chances in through evening, and across our far north overnight.
Also noting a strong temperature gradient across the CWA, with low to mid 40s across our far NE CWA, to the low to mid 60s across a sunny central and southern KY. This gradient continues tonight and tomorrow as we remain in the NW flow pattern with precip chances NE, and clearer skies SW. Did want to mention that temps may fall around freezing late tonight across our far NE CWA, if any very light precip falls during that time it could be a brief mix. No impacts expected, if at all.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 244 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025
Wednesday Night - Saturday Night...
Troughing aloft and surface high pressure will begin to move off to the east Wednesday night into Thursday. Skies will remain mostly clear and conditions dry through Thursday morning. Expecting to see low temperatures below normal in the 30s, potentially the low 30s in the Bluegrass.
Ridging over the central CONUS will begin to broaden out and deamplify. Troughing over the desert SW will move over southern Plains and into the TN/OH valleys. This wave, coupled with continued and strong southerly flow pumping in moisture, will bring rain chances each day. Friday and Saturday, there is a chance for gusty showers and a few storms as a 50-55kt LLJ moves in from the west. Temperatures will warm each day into the mid 70s by Friday.
Sunday - Early Next Week...
A trough originating off the coast of California will travel east and develop a surface low pressure system east of the Rockies on Saturday night. This low will begin to track east and strengthen. With PWATs around 1.6-2.0 inches there will be plenty of moisture ahead of this system. Plenty lift from troughing, CVA, and along the cold front will help lift the moisture. A strong 55-60kt LLJ will move over the region ahead of the front will help bring in strong shear. Forecast soundings reveal a few hundred joules of SBCAPE with little CIN. Low pressure is currently forecasted to move through in the overnight hours Sunday into Monday. There is still uncertainty in low track placement, however, these storm ingredients and a consistent signal for strong to severe storms could bring all severe hazards. SPC has the region within a 15% risk. In the next few forecast periods, these trends are definitely something to watch, as confidence continues to build.
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.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 205 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025
Seeing a few lower clouds scattering in with the more prominent mid level clouds across our northern TAF sites, although optimistic that we will remain largely VFR. Can't rule out some -SHRA at SDF/LEX/RGA over the next few hours, but overall little to no impacts expected given very light intensity. Looking for steady NNE winds, perhaps backing to NNW through the remainder of the afternoon. Winds will slacken overnight, with a light component out of the W or WNW. More clouds move in Wednesday morning, with steady NW winds taking hold once again. A few light showers expected across the northern TAF sites, but right now coverage is only 20% or less so no mention.
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.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BJS LONG TERM...SRW AVIATION...BJS
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 25, 2:44 PM EDT--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
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« on: Today at 08:13:02 AM »
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 24, 7:45 PM EDT548 FXUS63 KJKL 242345 AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 745 PM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A series of sfc waves crosses the area tonight into Wednesday with successive rounds of showers - mainly affecting northeast parts of the state - but with generally a third of an inch or less of total rainfall.
- Near-normal temperatures are expected for much of the work week, but a significant warming trend is expected by next weekend.
- A strong low pressure system is expected travel northeastward and pass nearby or to our northwest late in the weekend, bringing our next significant round of showers and possibly thunderstorms.
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.UPDATE... Issued at 745 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2025
No significant changes were needed on this forecast update. Dew points were the primary variable subject to minor changes as they have been running a bit drier than forecast this evening -- as low as the teens on the drier ridgetops north of the Hal Rogers Parkway/Kentucky 80 corridor. The gusty breeze should subside rather quickly with the lost of diurnal heating.
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.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 428 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2025
Late this afternoon, an upper level low was centered to the north and northeast of Lake Huron with a trough axis south across portions of the Great Lakes to the OH and TN Valley to the Southeast and the Gulf. An upper level ridge was in place to the east of this trough over portions of the western Atlantic and the Great Lakes while another ridge extended from parts of the eastern Pacific into portions of the southwestern and western Conus. Multiple shortwaves/disturbances were moving around this ridge over the western Conus and into the trough. At the surface, an ridge of high pressure extended form parts of the Southern Plains into the Lower OH and TN Valley regions. Recent SPC Mesoanalysis has 20 to 25KT winds at 850 mb nearer to the TN border and 25 to 35KT in locations further to the north while 700 mb winds were analyzed between 30 and 40KT. JKL VWP has 20KT winds up to 7kft msl with 25 to 30KT between 8kft and 10kft agl. With rather deep daytime mixing, some of these gusts between 20 and 30KT and locally stronger or between 25 and 35 mph were occurring.
The sfc ridge of high pressure will build across central and into easter KY this evening while winds and this combined with loss of daytime heating this evening will lead to winds slackening toward sunset. As the high moves across the area during the evening to start of the overnight, low and mid level clouds are not expected and eastern valley locations should decouple and likely cool off into the 30s by around or shortly after midnight. Temperatures in these areas should increase toward dawn. This will occur with the arrival of mid and low clouds ahead of the first of these shortwaves/disturbances moving to the mid MS Valley by the start of the overnight hours and then it nears the OH Valley region later tonight, before crossing eastern KY on Tuesday. This shortwave departs to the east by Tuesday evening, but another shortwave approaches from the northwest on Tuesday night. Meanwhile, the previously mentioned sfc ridge of high pressure will shift east and southeast of the Commonwealth overnight, settling across the Carolinas to VA by dawn on Tuesday. At the same time, the sfc wave associated with the first shortwave should track from parts of the Central Plains to the Lower OH Valley region by dawn on Tuesday and then tracking across the Commonwealth including eastern KY and across the Southern Appalachians during the day on Tuesday. The surface frontal zone should sag south of the Commonwealth by late Tuesday into Tuesday night, though additional clouds and some chances for showers linger Tuesday night with the departing shortwave and the approach of the next.
A modest increase in moisture is expected with the shortwave and surface system especially across the northeastern half to two thirds of the forecast area with PW per the 12Z HREF climbing to the 0.5 to 0.6 inch range from current levels in the 0.25 to 0.4 inch range. Moisture will begin to diminish in magnitude during the afternoon to early evening as the sfc low tracks across the southern part of the area and the associated shortwave passes. The better combination of moisture and lift is expected to be north of the sfc low track while locations nearer to the TN border should experience lesser coverage of showers and QPF. Showers should arrive toward or just after dawn for areas near and north of the Mtn Pkwy and then spread across northern and eastern sections of the area during the morning to afternoon hours. Winds will have an upslope component at least at times for Tuesday night and with moisture lingering below about 700 mb, additional showers are possible. The BL will cool with surface temperatures dropping into the 30s. However, dewpoints should also remain generally above freezing and wetbulb temperatures and warm layer depth sufficiently warm enough for whatever may fall late Tuesday night to be all rain.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 454 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2025
A progressive longwave trough will be moving east across the eastern CONUS on Wednesday. Under northwest flow aloft on the back side of the trough, a disturbance/jet streak should be translating through the trough over our area before the regime shifts to our east. This could bring scattered showers to much of the area during the day. Once this is gone, we can expect a brief spell of dry weather from Wednesday night at least through the day Thursday.
Late in the week, a major storm system will eventually take shape over the middle of the CONUS and move northeast. However, the details are still very uncertain. The GFS has a significant shortwave trough heading from TX over the Ohio Valley from Friday through Saturday while significant warm/moist advection off the gulf occurs as far east as KY. This results in a possibility of showers. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is weaker with the shortwave and slower with the return of moisture/precip. A blended solution dampens out the GFS solution and yields slight chance to chance POP for our area Thursday night through Saturday.
Both the ECMWF and GFS have the most significant weather late in the weekend, but there are still disagreements on the details. A deep low, or couple of lows, are expected to track by to our northwest. Ample moisture drawn into the system should result in showers and possibly thunderstorms for us, with the most favorable time being Sunday night (give or take a bit). With strong wind fields expected, severe wx is a concern. In the end, the degree of downsloping and amount of instability will need to be considered, but it is much too far down the road to delve into anything more than a broadbrushed approach.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2025
Gusty winds will quickly subside this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail through 12Z, though clouds will thicken and lower overnight with an approaching disturbance. Shower chances rise late in the night, especially over the northern half of the forecast area. As the column moistens, MVFR ceilings are expected to develop near/north of a KJKL to KPBX line after 12z and could dip to IFR at times. Shower coverage should be significantly less and ceilings generally higher further south. Slow improvement in flight conditions can be expected by Tuesday evening.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. &&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...GEERTSON/JP
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 24, 7:45 PM EDT--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
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« on: Today at 08:13:01 AM »
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT, City of TorontoIssued: 3:41 AM EDT Thursday 27 March 2025 Source: SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT, City of Toronto--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
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« on: Today at 08:13:00 AM »
3 ESE Wilmington [Clinton Co, OH] ASOS reports Non-Tstm Wnd Gst of M47 MPH at 2:37 PM EDT -- KILN Peak Wind.324 NWUS51 KILN 241913 LSRILN
Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Wilmington OH 313 PM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS..
0237 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 ESE Wilmington 39.43N 83.78W 03/24/2025 M47 MPH Clinton OH ASOS
KILN Peak Wind.
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$$
NWS
Source: 3 ESE Wilmington [Clinton Co, OH] ASOS reports Non-Tstm Wnd Gst of M47 MPH at 2:37 PM EDT -- KILN Peak Wind.--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
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« on: Today at 08:13:00 AM »
Charge surrender 6 goals in 3rd-period collapse vs. Sirens The Ottawa Charge's playoff hopes took a beating Tuesday night following a 6-3 loss to the New York Sirens. The Charge blew a 3-0 third-period lead and allowed the last-place Sirens to score six straight goals. Source: Charge surrender 6 goals in 3rd-period collapse vs. Sirens----------------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
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« on: Today at 08:12:59 AM »
WORCESTER MA Mar 20 Climate Report: High: 63 Low: 38 Precip: 0.01" Snow: 0.0"592 CDUS41 KBOX 202124 CLIORH
CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA 524 PM EDT THU MAR 20 2025
...................................
...THE WORCESTER MA CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MARCH 20 2025... VALID TODAY AS OF 0500 PM LOCAL TIME.
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1892 TO 2025
WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 63 231 PM 77 1945 44 19 47 MINIMUM 38 726 AM 2 1949 27 11 28 AVERAGE 51 36 15 38
PRECIPITATION (IN) TODAY 0.01 1.17 1954 0.14 -0.13 0.08 MONTH TO DATE 2.70 2.68 0.02 4.97 SINCE MAR 1 2.70 2.68 0.02 4.97 SINCE JAN 1 8.55 9.46 -0.91 14.50
SNOWFALL (IN) TODAY 0.0 10.5 1944 0.4 -0.4 T MONTH TO DATE 0.5 10.5 -10.0 T SINCE MAR 1 0.5 10.5 -10.0 T SINCE JUL 1 33.8 67.8 -34.0 37.0
DEGREE DAYS HEATING TODAY 14 30 -16 27 MONTH TO DATE 517 645 -128 468 SINCE MAR 1 517 645 -128 468 SINCE JUL 1 4846 5395 -549 4488
COOLING TODAY 0 0 0 0 MONTH TO DATE 0 0 0 0 SINCE MAR 1 0 0 0 0 SINCE JAN 1 0 0 0 0 ...................................................................
WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 21 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION S (170) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 27 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION S (160) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 6.9
SKY COVER POSSIBLE SUNSHINE MM AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.8
WEATHER CONDITIONS THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY. LIGHT SNOW FOG FOG W/VISIBILITY <= 1/4 MILE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT) HIGHEST 100 1200 AM LOWEST 60 300 PM AVERAGE 80
..........................................................
THE WORCESTER MA CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW NORMAL RECORD YEAR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 44 73 2012 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 27 4 1986
SUNRISE AND SUNSET MARCH 20 2025.........SUNRISE 650 AM EDT SUNSET 700 PM EDT MARCH 21 2025.........SUNRISE 649 AM EDT SUNSET 701 PM EDT
- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS. R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED. MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING. T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
$$
Source: WORCESTER MA Mar 20 Climate Report: High: 63 Low: 38 Precip: 0.01" Snow: 0.0"---------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
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« on: Today at 08:12:58 AM »
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT, Kingston - Odessa - Frontenac IslandsIssued: 3:41 AM EDT Thursday 27 March 2025 Source: SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT, Kingston - Odessa - Frontenac Islands_________ If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
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« on: Today at 08:12:58 AM »
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT, Napanee - ConseconIssued: 3:41 AM EDT Thursday 27 March 2025 Source: SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT, Napanee - Consecon--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
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