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Messages - ThreatWebInternal
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31
« on: July 01, 2025, 12:23:03 PM »
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #552 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE858
AWUS01 KWNH 291949
FFGMPD
KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-300100-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0552
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025
Areas affected...southeast Kansas through the Ozarks
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 291947Z - 300100Z
Summary...Showers and thunderstorms developing along a surface
trough and an accompanying outflow boundary will translate
southeast through the afternoon. Rainfall rates in excess of 2"/hr
are expected within this convection, leading to 2-3" of rain with
locally higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible.
Discussion...The GOES-E day-cloud phase RGB this afternoon
indicates a rapid expansion of strengthening updrafts across much
of southern Missouri. These updrafts are manifesting as
strengthening thunderstorms, with two clusters noted via the
regional radar mosaic. One of these is dropping out of southeast
Kansas along an outflow boundary, while a second area is expanding
across a surface trough in southeast Missouri. The low-level
convergence driving this convection is moving into robust
thermodynamics characterized by PWs nearing 2 inches overlapping
MLCAPE of 3000 J/kg, leading to intense rain rates estimated via
radar to be 2.5"/hr in some areas.
Over the next few hours coverage should continue to expand across
the area and track slowly to the southeast, although some more
impressive organization through bulk shear of 20-30 kts may
eventually result in a more progressive MCS as shown by the ARWs.
Until then, the slow movement of cells combined with these intense
rain rates may result in stripes of 2-3" of rain with locally
higher amounts.
The CAMs differ considerably in the evolution the next few hours,
so confidence is reduced as to where the greatest potential for
the heaviest rainfall will be. However, the slow southward advance
of the strong CAPE gradient combined with the slow westward build
of convection along the surface trough suggests south-central
Missouri will become the focus of the heaviest and most prolonged
rainfall this afternoon. This is potentially problematic as FFG in
this area is most compromised to as low as 0.75-1.5"/3hrs, for
which the HREF indicates has a 30-40% chance of exceedance. While
the intense rain rates moving across any urban or more sensitive
soils could cause flash flooding, the greatest risk will be across
south-central Missouri where the the overlap of low FFG and
highest rainfall may occur.
Weiss
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TOP...
TSA...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 38749475 38709411 38419304 38119227 37699172
37349091 37058988 36708936 36298969 36039087
36089305 36499483 36829558 37179640 37429720
38139668
Source: Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #552 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
32
« on: July 01, 2025, 12:23:03 PM »
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 30, 1:51 AM EDT994
FXUS63 KLMK 300551
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
151 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Chances for afternoon/evening showers and storms today and Monday.
* Less humid conditions arrive Wednesday and Thursday.
* Isolated showers and storms are possible for Independence Day, but
most of the day will be dry.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 931 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025
Still seeing a bit of convection fire across the region this
evening, specifically between Louisville and Lexington. This
activity should continue to move off to the northeast over the next
several hours. A few more showers/storms may develop downstream
across south-central KY this evening. Shear and instability are
weak and the overall coverage looks to be around 20 percent or so.
Later in the overnight, an upper level trough axis will push into
the region. Shear values increase slightly, but are still fairly
weak overall. Last several HRRR runs have suggested that a cluster
of storms will develop over western KY and southwest IN and move
eastward. This would affect our north-central KY and southern IN
counties after midnight thorugh sunrise. Severe weather threat here
looks very low, but heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning would
be the main threats with that activity.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025
This afternoon...Temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s so far
and getting closer to convective temperatures. A very moist and
unstable environment will allow for scattered showers and storms to
develop this afternoon. These diurnal storms will begin to dissipate
this evening as the sun sets.
Tonight... Most of tonight will remain dry with broken skies. Light
southerly winds and recent precip may lead to some light, patchy fog
development especially in protected valley areas.
Monday and Monday Night... A trough will push through the Ohio
Valley bringing a cold front towards the region. This trough will
increase shear (although still weak) and bring some better forcing
to a present tropical airmass. Some CAMs want to bring a cluster of
showers and storms through in the early morning. These storms will
likely dissipate as they move east over the region. Mid morning
through early afternoon will remain dry with scattered skies. High
temperatures are expected to be in the mid-upper 80s. Scattered
showers and storms will then develop in the afternoon and evening as
the cold front approaches the region. These storms will have access
to 2000-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE, and slightly better lapse rates
compared to the previous few days. These conditions will allow for
storms (a few strong storms) to develop in the afternoon ahead of
the cold front. Storms will last through the evening and into the
first part of Monday night. Main threat is pulse cells, wet
microbursts, gusty to damaging winds, lightning, and heavy rain.
Storms will outrun the better forcing along the front and
instability will wane with sunset, allowing storms to steadily
weaken overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025
Tuesday - Thursday...
The cold front will push through the region on Tuesday bringing
lower dew points and more comfortable conditions to the region mid
week. Along the cold front scattered showers will be possible.
Surface high pressure will keep conditions dry during this time.
High temperatures will remain near normal in the mid to upper 80s.
Independence Day - Next Weekend...
An upper trough will swing over the northern Ohio Valley late week
bringing an isolated to scattered chance of showers and storms over
the northern half of the region on Friday. Brief ridging and high
pressure will move over the region on Saturday into Sunday, keeping
conditions dry and warm with temperatures in the low 90s. By late
Sunday and into early next week, ridging pushes east of the region
and precip chances increase.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 151 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025
Another muggy night with light south winds, and debris clouds that
aren't low or extensive enough for any restriction below VFR. Not
great agreement in the models regarding a batch of convection that
might come through after daybreak through about midday. Not
confident enough to include it at this time but will carry MVFR cigs
for a few hrs later in the morning.
The afternoon looks like yet another repeat performance with
scattered storms. Will handle that with a PROB30 from 18Z til 0Z
Tue, and while cigs won't drop below VFR any heavier shower or storm
will produce a period of IFR vis.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...RAS
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 30, 1:51 AM EDT--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
33
« on: July 01, 2025, 12:23:02 PM »
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 29, 1:46 PM EDT074
FXUS63 KJKL 291746
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
146 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot and humid conditions will continue into early next week.
Heat indices will peak in the 90s to around 100 degrees through
Monday.
- Diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances continue into the first
half of this coming week.
- A potential cold front passage toward the middle of this coming
week could bring temporary relief from the sustained heat and
humidity.
- Daily high temperatures might return to the 90s from next
Saturday onward.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
At just past noon, an extensive cumulus field is rapidly
developing as thermometers approach the convective temperature.
Areas most likely to experience a shower or thunderstorm this
afternoon and evening appear to be southwest of KY-15 (roughly
Whitesburg to Stanton). Convective initiation is likely to occur
first over the higher summits of Black Mountain and adjacent
ridges as well as near/west of the Pottsville Escarpment. Similar
to yesterday, cell motions will be slow, generally be under 10
mph unless a substantial cold pool develops. Given high PWATs and
and a deep warm layer, locally excessive rainfall will again be a
threat under the most intense and persistent cores.
UPDATE Issued at 753 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
A fairly comprehensive update has been sent out and uploaded to
NDFD. However, there are no significant changes to the forecast or
forecast reasoning for the near-term and short-term periods.
UPDATE Issued at 1145 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
Did also fine tune the PoPs and weather through the rest of the
night. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones, HWO, and SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 855 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
00Z sfc analysis shows a weak pressure pattern through eastern
Kentucky allowing the diurnal cycle to dominate. This means
convection peaking in the late afternoon and early evening each
day. Our current bout of showers and thunderstorms have worked
through much of the western portion of the CWA in association with
a large outflow boundary progressing east. Most activity in the
wake of this has had a hard time sustaining itself as instability
is waning. Currently, temperatures are running in the mid 70s
within the more rain cooled areas and in the low 80s elsewhere.
Meanwhile, amid generally light winds away from any storms,
dewpoints are mostly in the upper 60s to low 70s. Have updated the
forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the
T/Td/Sky grids but also to fine tune the PoPs per current radar
and CAMs guidance through the night. These minor adjustments have
been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 340 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
A slightly cooler and less humid air mass is noted over eastern
Kentucky late this afternoon with widespread temperatures in the 85
to 90 degree range for elevations below 1,500 feet ASL. While there
are just a few spotty radar returns showing up in our area, mainly
in the I-64 corridor at 1930z, regional radar shows multiple
clusters and loosely organized lines of showers and thunderstorms
slowly advancing eastward through Central Kentucky. This activity
has developed ahead of a slow-moving vort max disturbance
embedded in the westerly flow aloft. Sporadic convection is also
sagging into southern Indiana and Ohio with a stalling cold
frontal boundary.
As the disturbance approaches, CAM guidance has struggled to resolve
the evolution of the associated convection. Shear is minimal and
thus limiting overall storm organization, however, 2,500 to 3,500
J/kg of MUCAPE in an uncapped environment has allowed for upstream
convection to develop and establish a cold pool which is now likely
aiding in maintenance of the linear storm structure. High PWATs
in the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range, combined with relatively slow cell
movement to the east northeast at 10 to 20 mph, may pose a risk
for isolated high water/flash flooding, especially if multiple
storm cores pass over the same location, or if a heavier cell
impacts a location that received heavy rainfall yesterday. An
isolated strong to perhaps damaging wind gusts can also not be
ruled out under the most intense cores through sunset.
Expect most if not all convection to dissipate after sunset with the
loss of daytime heating. A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out
overnight, but a vast majority of the area should be rain-free.
It will be muggy but a little cooler than recent nights with lows
in the 65 to 70F range for most places. The stalled cold frontal
boundary will pull away to the northeast as a warm front on
Sunday, but additional weak perturbations in the westerly flow
aloft are likely to aid in additional convection development,
primarily during the afternoon/early evening, coincident with
peak heating. Isolated instances of high water as well as a stray
damaging wind gust or two will once again be possible. Look for
high temperatures in the 85 to 90F range on Sunday. Sunday night
appears similar to Saturday night -- leftover convection mostly
wanes after sunset, though a stray shower or storm remains
possible overnight as temperatures settle back to between 66 and
71F.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 424 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
The 28/12z model suite analysis beginning Monday morning shows a
digging trough, extending from Northern Ontario to the Central
Plains, diving southeastward toward the Lower Ohio Valley. A
surface cold front initially trails from an ~1003 mb low over
James Bay southwestward across Lower Michigan and well beyond
into the eastern Kansas Plains.
This system is slated to bring temporary relief from the
heat/humidity mid-week before upper level ridging tries to re-
establish its grip on the Coalfields next weekend. The parent
trough drops into the Commonwealth by Monday and early Tuesday,
along with an associated surface cold front, and finally sweeps
away the muggy, high PWAT air mass that is currently plaguing the
region. Some modest increase in shear is likely along/ahead of
the cold front, but the overnight/morning frontal passage will
occur when instability is minimized. Similar to recent days,
disturbances aloft/ahead of the cold front are likely to bring
another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday
prior to boundary's arrival. Rain chances are favored to linger on
Tuesday as the front makes a slow departure. As the 500H trough
slowly shifts eastward on Wednesday and Thursday, incoming
large-scale ridging will support high pressure building in at the
surface. However, a few weak disturbances riding down the eastern
side of the ridge might be able to spark a very isolated shower
or thunderstorm. A gradual warming trend is also likely as 500 mb
heights rise back to around 592 dam.
Sensibly speaking, expect more of the typical summertime showers and
thunderstorms, most numerous during the afternoon and evening, on
Monday before a period of more widespread showers and
thunderstorms move through Monday Night into Tuesday. Mostly sunny
days and mostly clear nights with just an isolated (~20% or
lower) shower or thunderstorm threat follow from Wednesday onward.
Fog can be expected in the valleys on most nights, least
extensive Monday night. Temperature-wise, daily maximum
temperatures in the 85 to 90F range on Monday cool to the 81 to
86F range on Tuesday. Nighttime lows dip solidly into the lower
and mid 60s for most as well. From then onward, look for
temperatures to gradually warm back to between 90 and 95F on
Saturday. The Independence Day holiday is shaping to be mostly
sunny and seasonably hot with just the small chance of an isolated
shower or thunderstorm.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
The cumulus field over eastern Kentucky at TAF issuance is likely
to blossom into scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. While VFR conditions should generally
prevail through sunset, briefly reduced flight categories are
likely under any passing shower or storm. Once deep convection
diminishes, fog formation is favored again tonight in the typical
valleys. However, any fog impacts at the TAF sites is uncertain,
likely dependent upon where/when rainfall occurs. Fog clears after
sunrise on Monday with renewed chances for storms by the end of
the period. Winds will be variable, generally under 5 kts, through
tonight, except potentially gusty and erratic near thunderstorms.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 29, 1:46 PM EDT--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
34
« on: July 01, 2025, 12:23:00 PM »
ILN issues Flash Flood Warning [flash flood: radar indicated] for Hocking, Ross [OH] till Jun 30, 8:30 PM EDT403
WGUS51 KILN 302120
FFWILN
OHC073-141-010030-
/O.NEW.KILN.FF.W.0025.250630T2120Z-250701T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
520 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025
The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a
* Flash Flood Warning for...
Southwestern Hocking County in central Ohio...
Eastern Ross County in south central Ohio...
* Until 830 PM EDT.
* At 520 PM EDT, radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain
across saturated ground within the warned area. Between 0.5 and 1
inch of rain has fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5
inches are possible. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to
begin shortly.
HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE...Radar.
IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
other poor drainage and low-lying areas.
* Some locations that may experience flash flooding include...
Chillicothe, Londonderry, Laurelville, Adelphi, Mooresville and
Hallsville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
To report flash flooding, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and
submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely.
&&
LAT...LON 3925 8276 3924 8276 3924 8289 3938 8298
3947 8284 3947 8279 3947 8276 3947 8275
3947 8274 3947 8263 3936 8264 3937 8275
FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
$$
McGinnis
Source: ILN issues Flash Flood Warning [flash flood: radar indicated] for Hocking, Ross [OH] till Jun 30, 8:30 PM EDT--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
35
« on: July 01, 2025, 12:23:00 PM »
Canada's stubby beer bottle finds new meaning in an age of American bluster The stubby, a Canadian beer bottle that was once a fixture in fridges from coast to coast, is now being reinterpreted as a subtle form of economic self-defence as trade tensions with the U.S. heat up. Source: Canada's stubby beer bottle finds new meaning in an age of American bluster----------------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
36
« on: July 01, 2025, 12:22:59 PM »
BOX issues Record Event Report (RER) at Jun 26, 1:31 AM EDT ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT HARTFORD CT...761
SXUS71 KBOX 260531
RERBDL
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
0131 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT HARTFORD CT...
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95 DEGREES WAS SET AT HARTFORD CT
YESTERDAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 95 DEGREES SET IN 1943.
$$
Source: BOX issues Record Event Report (RER) at Jun 26, 1:31 AM EDT ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT HARTFORD CT...---------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
37
« on: July 01, 2025, 06:16:47 AM »
LIX issues Special Weather Statement [wind: 40 MPH, hail: 0.50 IN] for Wilkinson [MS] till 2:45 PM CDT582
WWUS84 KLIX 271911
SPSLIX
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
211 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025
MSZ068-271945-
Wilkinson MS-
211 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WILKINSON
COUNTY THROUGH 245 PM CDT
...
At 211 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Dolorosa to near
Woodville. Movement was west at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Woodville and Dolorosa.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3121 9112 3100 9122 3100 9144 3132 9140
3134 9138 3134 9135 3136 9129 3137 9127
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 091DEG 8KT 3133 9131 3121 9123 3103 9129
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
$$
Zeringue
Source: LIX issues Special Weather Statement [wind: 40 MPH, hail: 0.50 IN] for Wilkinson [MS] till 2:45 PM CDT--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
39
« on: July 01, 2025, 06:16:46 AM »
[Delayed Report] 3 SSE Export [Westmoreland Co, PA] 911 Call Center reports Tstm Wnd Dmg at 28 Jun, 5:39 PM EDT -- Tree down on Bouquet Road near Frye Road.580
NWUS51 KPBZ 291139
LSRPBZ
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
739 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0539 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 3 SSE Export 40.38N 79.61W
06/28/2025 Westmoreland PA 911 Call Center
Tree down on Bouquet Road near Frye Road.
&&
$$
SKH
Source: [Delayed Report] 3 SSE Export [Westmoreland Co, PA] 911 Call Center reports Tstm Wnd Dmg at 28 Jun, 5:39 PM EDT -- Tree down on Bouquet Road near Frye Road.--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
40
« on: July 01, 2025, 06:16:45 AM »
CLE issues A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN HOLMES COUNTY THROUGH 330 PM EDT [wind: 40 MPH, hail: 0.00 IN]362
WWUS81 KCLE 301851
SPSCLE
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
251 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025
OHZ038-301930-
Holmes OH-
251 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN HOLMES COUNTY THROUGH
330 PM EDT...
At 251 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Danville, or 15 miles west of Millersburg, moving northeast at 20
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Millersburg, Killbuck, Glenmont, and Nashville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 4046 8218 4058 8218 4066 8206 4058 8189
4045 8187
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 246DEG 16KT 4047 8219
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
$$
Kahn
Source: CLE issues A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN HOLMES COUNTY THROUGH 330 PM EDT [wind: 40 MPH, hail: 0.00 IN]--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
41
« on: July 01, 2025, 06:16:45 AM »
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 29, 2:32 PM EDT336
FXUS63 KIWX 291832
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
232 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer and humid this afternoon with heat indices in the low to
mid 90s.
- Rain/storms are possible Monday morning, then likely Monday afternoon
and evening. A few storms could be strong to severe with
damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
- Dry, seasonable, and less humid by mid to late in the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025
A warm front has lifted northwest across the area today, which will
allow for highs in the mid to upper 80s this afternoon alongside a
noticeable increase in humidity. Southerly low-level flow has
helped to pull in moisture from the Gulf, which has brought
dewpoints up into the low 70s today. Heat indices are expected
to peak in the low to mid 90s this afternoon. A few isolated
showers/storms will be possible this afternoon and evening
across north-central Indiana, mainly south of US 24 and west of
US 31.
WAA continues into the day on Monday with highs in the 80s and
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. An area of low pressure will lift
across the Midwest and it's attendant cold front will bring high
chances (60-80%) for showers and storms. With the aforementioned
heat and humidity, this should allow for destabilization to
occur during the day Monday and for thunderstorms to develop.
The Storm Prediction Center has maintained the Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) for our entire forecast area, meaning a few
storms could be strong to severe. Overall, Monday looks fairly
unimpressive and disorganized for severe weather, especially
considering there may be some showers to deal with in the
morning. An initial round of scattered showers (not as much
confidence in thunderstorms) will be possible Monday morning as
a shortwave lifts out of the St Louis area. A second,
potentially stronger, round of storms will then be possible
Monday afternoon and evening with the cold front. Multicell
clusters/a broken line of thunderstorms should develop ahead of
the cold front and sweep through the area. These storms will
have modest instability (1500-3000 J/kg) to work with, however
lapse rates will be poor and there will be little to no shear in
place as vertical wind profiles are unidirectional out of the
southwest. Lingering showers and clouds in the morning and early
afternoon may also hinder severe chances. Confidence in severe
weather is low. If any storms do manage to reach severe
thresholds, the primary threat will be damaging winds. Locally
heavy rain is also possible with long, skinny CAPE profiles, a
deep warm cloud layer, and PWATs of 1.75-2" Monday afternoon and
evening.
July will start on a seasonable and dry note as surface high
pressure and an upper level ridge build in by midweek. Tuesday
through Friday currently looks to be mainly dry, with lower levels
of humidity and seasonable temperatures. Some diurnal chances for
rain/storms may be possible for the 4th of July and into the holiday
weekend depending on how amplified the upper level ridge is. For
now, have kept PoPs low at 20-30% at times through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 126 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025
A trough traverses the Northern Plains this afternoon into Monday
and allows a vort max to rise northward towards the area Monday
morning. A more humid air mass returns Monday morning and this
environment may make it more conducive to allowing for convective
cells that could produce lightning as early as the morning, more
likely for FWA than SBN, but not zero chances even for SBN.
Depending on instability and eventual shortwave position, the better
chances for showers and storms is Monday afternoon, but the
shortwave position could remove SBN from rain chances.
South wind today obtains a westerly component on Monday. While winds
stay weaker than 10 kts today, so 15 to 20 kts breezes will be
possible on Monday.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Roller
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 29, 2:32 PM EDT--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
42
« on: July 01, 2025, 06:16:45 AM »
IND issues Flood Advisory for Brown, Greene, Lawrence, Monroe [IN] till Jun 30, 4:45 AM EDT876
WGUS83 KIND 300452
FLSIND
Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1252 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025
INC013-055-093-105-300845-
/O.NEW.KIND.FA.Y.0071.250630T0452Z-250630T0845Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Brown IN-Greene IN-Lawrence IN-Monroe IN-
1252 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025
...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
* WHERE...Portions of south central and southwest Indiana, including
the following counties, in south central Indiana, Brown, Lawrence
and Monroe. In southwest Indiana, Greene.
* WHEN...Until 445 AM EDT.
* IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.
Rises in small streams and normally dry arroyos.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 1252 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain
have fallen.
- Additional rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are expected
over the area. This additional rain will result in minor
flooding.
- Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Oolitic, Harrodsburg, Fairfax State Recreation Area, Avoca,
Bartlettsville and Monroe Reservoir.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.
&&
LAT...LON 3907 8636 3890 8638 3889 8668 3907 8668
$$
Melo
Source: IND issues Flood Advisory for Brown, Greene, Lawrence, Monroe [IN] till Jun 30, 4:45 AM EDT--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
43
« on: July 01, 2025, 06:16:44 AM »
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 29, 2:42 PM CDT106
FXUS63 KPAH 291942
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
242 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated to scattered showers and storms expected through
Monday. Heavy rainfall, lightning, and gusty winds will be
possible.
- A drier trend continues for Independence Day with seasonal
highs in the upper 80's to lower 90's.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
Lower heights extend across the northern tier of the US this
afternoon with an upper level disturbance to the northwest.
A few showers and storms have resulted and will continue into
the evening hours. PW's remain very high with values over 2
inches and will result in periods of heavy rainfall and isolated
flash flooding. A few isolated or scattered showers/storms may
continue into the night as low level waa remains atop the
region. Amplification of a northern stream trough occurs across
the Midwest on Monday. This will send a cold front through the
region Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Increasing wind
fields aloft may lead to a strong to severe risk with any
thunderstorm complex with damaging winds the primary hazard.
Once again, localized flash flooding will be possible.
We finally see some drier weather behind the front Tuesday.
Guidance continues to show the rest of this week dry as upper
level ridging builds across the region. Toward the end of the
forecast period, another trough moves into the plains and begins
to bring low-end PoPs into portions of the area. Temperatures
in the upper 80's early to mid week will rise into the low to
mid 90's by the end of the week and into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
Lower confidence forecast on timing and coverage of convection
this afternoon. Cloud cover and earlier rain has slowed
destabilization today. Can't rule out SHRA or maybe isolated
thunder but don't have more confidence to introduce any higher
probs than prob30 at least for now. AMD may become necessary if
higher confidence develops. Additional isolated shower or storm
activity is possible overnight. A cold front will move in from
the northwest late in the TAF period, most likely after 18z but
could offer scattered showers or storms toward the end of the
TAF period. Winds from the southwest around or less than 5
knots are expected.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...AD
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 29, 2:42 PM CDT--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
44
« on: July 01, 2025, 06:16:44 AM »
LOUISVILLE BOWMAN KY Jun 29 Climate Report: High: 88 Low: 71 Precip: 0.0" Snow: Missing274
CDUS43 KLMK 300025
CLILOU
CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
825 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
...................................
...THE LOUISVILLE BOWMAN KY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JUNE 29 2025...
VALID AS OF 0825 PM LOCAL TIME.
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 9999 TO 9999
WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
.......................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 88 517 PM 87 1 92
MINIMUM 71 518 AM 68 3 80
AVERAGE 80 78 2 86
PRECIPITATION (IN)
TODAY 0.00 0.17 -0.17 0.00
MONTH TO DATE 2.40 4.51 -2.11 2.88
SINCE JUN 1 2.40 4.51 -2.11 2.88
SINCE JAN 1 29.08 25.28 3.80 24.79
DEGREE DAYS
HEATING
TODAY 0 0 0 0
MONTH TO DATE 1 0 1 5
SINCE JUN 1 1 0 1 5
SINCE JUL 1 4032 4146 -114 3674
COOLING
TODAY 15 13 2 21
MONTH TO DATE 338 300 38 308
SINCE JUN 1 338 300 38 308
SINCE JAN 1 467 483 -16 509
.......................................................
WIND (MPH)
HIGHEST WIND SPEED 16 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION SW (210)
HIGHEST GUST SPEED 22 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION SW (210)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED 5.8
SKY COVER
POSSIBLE SUNSHINE MM
AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.3
WEATHER CONDITIONS
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY.
THUNDERSTORM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
HIGHEST 94 100 AM
LOWEST 57 600 PM
AVERAGE 76
..........................................................
THE LOUISVILLE BOWMAN KY CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
NORMAL RECORD YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 87 MM MM
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 69 MM MM
SUNRISE AND SUNSET
JUNE 29 2025..........SUNRISE 622 AM EDT SUNSET 910 PM EDT
JUNE 30 2025..........SUNRISE 623 AM EDT SUNSET 910 PM EDT
- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
$$
BJS
Source: LOUISVILLE BOWMAN KY Jun 29 Climate Report: High: 88 Low: 71 Precip: 0.0" Snow: Missing--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
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