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31
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 23, 3:11 PM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

110 
FXUS64 KLIX 232011
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
311 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Northern stream trough over Minnesota this afternoon with lead
shortwaves over Iowa, the Texas Panhandle, and Baja California.
At the surface, high pressure between Bermuda and the Bahamas had
a westward extension into the eastern Gulf. A frontal boundary
extended from Minnesota to Missouri to Texas. Locally, southerly
flow was pumping moisture into the area on 15 to 20 mph southerly
winds, and has brought mostly cloudy skies to much of the area
this afternoon. Temperatures were mainly in the mid and upper 70s,
but a few locations were right at 80 degrees. Dew points were in
the lower and middle 60s. Radar indicated a few light rain showers
or sprinkles across the extreme western portions of the CWA, but
very few people in our CWA are seeing them this afternoon.

The shortwave over Texas is beginning to produce convection over
Arkansas along Interstate 40 at mid afternoon. Deep moisture
remains somewhat lacking locally this afternoon, although dew
points are climbing into the mid 60s. We will have steep mid level
lapse rates in place, of around 8C/km and CAPE values of 1500-2000
J/kg, but low level wind fields aren't particularly strong at this
time. Most of the convection allowing models develop a larger area
of convection from northeast Mississippi southwestward into Texas
during the evening hours, but probably not moving into our area of
responsibility over southwest Mississippi until perhaps 3 AM CDT.

Forecast soundings would be supportive of hail as the main threat,
as well as damaging winds. However, most model solutions indicate
storms will be weakening as they move into the area, with not much
remaining of those storms by 9 or 10 AM. That being said, forecast
soundings indicate that conditions could destabilize again during
the afternoon if we get some sunshine. While the main troughing
should be east of the area by midday, if any isolated storms can
develop, they will again bring a threat of hail.

Clearing skies are expected Monday night across the area, with at
least some potential for fog around sunrise Tuesday.

Overnight lows the next two nights will be mainly in the upper 50s
to mid 60s. Highs Monday are likely to be in the mid and upper
70s, but if we get more sunshine than expected Monday afternoon,
some lower 80s will be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Upper flow will primarily be northwesterly for the remainder of
the workweek until a southern stream shortwave approaches the area
Friday or Friday night. There is likely to be at least one period
of showers and thunderstorms next weekend, probably Saturday.

The early week trough will only have drier air behind it and not
cold air, so temperatures are going to be above normal during the
day all week. Much of the area should see high temperatures get
into the 80s on multiple days, with potentially mid 80s Tuesday
and Wednesday. Normal highs for late March are in the lower and
mid 70s. Overnight lows should be in the upper 40s to mid 50s, and
we will likely be above those levels most mornings, if not all of
them.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Most terminals are currently VFR, but we'll see occasional MVFR
conditions where cumulus becomes a little more plentiful, such as
KMCB and KHDC. MVFR to IFR ceilings likely to become prevalent
beyond 06z Monday through at least 15z Monday. Precipitation-wise,
we could see a few SHRA by mid to late evening at KMCB and
potentially KBTR, but any TSRA probably won't be until much later
in the night as shortwave approaches from the west. Tried to limit
mention of TSRA to a 6 hour window, but confidence isn't
particularly strong. Better chances at southern terminals may
actually be Monday afternoon, although forcing is much weaker at
that time. Direct impacts of TSRA would generally be IFR
visibilities and/or ceilings.

Southeast to south winds gusting to 25 knots will continue this
afternoon, but should settle down to around 10 knots or less this
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Beyond the potential for thunderstorms later tonight into Monday,
there should be a period of 48 hours or so with fairly benign
conditions over the waters, with winds remaining well below 15
knots during that period. Wind and sea conditions will deteriorate
somewhat beginning Thursday or Friday ahead of next weekend's
weather system. Small Craft Exercise Caution or Small Craft
Advisory conditions look likely, perhaps as early as Thursday
night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  77  55  84 /  70  40   0   0
BTR  63  81  59  85 /  70  60  10   0
ASD  64  80  59  84 /  60  70  10   0
MSY  65  78  62  82 /  50  70  10   0
GPT  63  76  58  79 /  50  70  10   0
PQL  61  79  57  81 /  50  70  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW

Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 23, 3:11 PM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

---------------
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32
The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 2 Marginal Convective Risk at Mar 22, 17:21z for portions of MOB

950 
WUUS02 KWNS 221723
PTSDY2

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2025

VALID TIME 231200Z - 241200Z

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 2

... TORNADO ...

0.02   36568941 37378796 37408753 37288613 36738569 34538612
       33268692 32718734 31388892 31019035 31029312 31279453
       31769509 32489500 32989460 33579343 35659072 36568941
0.05   32939181 33599008 33668914 33458883 32868889 32478954
       32199047 32149130 32369188 32539192 32939181
&&

... HAIL ...

0.05   30689829 31309758 31739698 32829535 33219462 34999176
       36109012 36708918 36848824 36828726 36058604 34868608
       32368682 31488754 31258809 31068928 30889096 30619285
       29929674 29879770 30059817 30259834 30689829
0.15   32669518 33189399 34579156 35718993 36188867 36198784
       36018741 35698737 35298741 34788758 33848803 32988842
       32438885 31948978 31629144 31569214 31449362 31449422
       31559484 31879544 32249570 32439554 32599534 32669518
&&

... WIND ...

0.05   31339753 31739699 32349607 32909521 33259456 35019173
       36938886 37298827 37788692 37658600 37228525 36528490
       36028502 35798507 34578573 32358680 31478753 31238813
       31088908 30709214 30379440 29929674 29869770 30069821
       30269833 30689827 31339753
0.15   31639146 31449353 31449425 31549480 31869544 32239569
       32429555 32629528 33189398 34319204 34559163 35688999
       36188866 36208788 36028743 35748737 35288741 34798755
       33348825 32978842 32448884 31958974 31639146
&&

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 2

... CATEGORICAL ...

SLGT   36198869 36208791 36038744 35758738 35368741 34788757
       32958844 32458884 31958976 31619154 31459353 31449425
       31579485 31899546 32239569 32419556 32599532 33199400
       34569160 35698998 36198869
MRGL   36528491 35808508 34148593 32328682 31478753 31248808
       31098907 30699224 29929678 29879771 30079819 30269834
       30689828 31289762 31699708 32909522 33209463 35029172
       35299132 37278827 37778691 37668603 37238525 36528491
TSTM   29089312 29479363 29649443 29449584 29439765 29959862
       30399885 30849868 31579784 32619655 33829465 34219408
       34869364 35649397 36069451 36659496 37299500 37889474
       39859313 41649223 42429179 43319107 43619000 43278868
       42718787 40818599 39118290 37328168 35708152 33378232
       31678367 29548659

&&
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE
DYR 40 SW CKV 40 S CKV 45 WSW BNA 45 NNE MSL MSL 45 NNE MEI 10 NNW
MEI 40 NW PIB 15 W HEZ 30 SW IER 35 ENE LFK 25 NNW LFK 30 S TYR 20
WSW TYR 10 WNW TYR 15 NNE TYR 20 S TXK 35 NE PBF 40 ESE JBR 40 ENE
DYR.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE
CSV 10 S CSV 15 NE GAD 10 E SEM 30 W GZH 40 NNE MOB 30 SSE PIB 35
NNW LFT 50 SSW CLL 20 ENE BAZ 25 NNW BAZ 40 W AUS 45 NW AUS 15 NW
TPL 10 ENE ACT 40 NNE TYR 40 WSW TXK 35 NE LIT 35 SSE BVX 30 ENE PAH
15 ENE OWB 40 SSW SDF 65 W LOZ 40 NNE CSV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S LCH 40 SE BPT 30
NE GLS 30 NW LBX 30 SE BAZ 30 NNW SAT 55 E JCT 70 SSE BWD 35 W ACT
25 SE DAL 20 SW DEQ 20 ENE DEQ 40 NW HOT 25 SSE FYV 20 WNW FYV 10
WNW GMJ 30 WNW JLN 45 ENE CNU 25 E CDJ 30 WSW CID 30 ESE ALO 40 SSE
LSE 25 SSE VOK 35 ENE MSN RAC 45 WSW FWA 35 WSW UNI 25 W BLF 10 W
HKY 20 W AGS 35 ENE ABY 70 SW PFN.


Source: The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 2 Marginal Convective Risk at Mar 22, 17:21z for portions of MOB

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33
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 24, 9:56 AM EDT

484 
FXUS61 KPBZ 241356
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
956 AM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier weather returns today with gusty winds and temperatures
increasing to slightly above normal. Throughout the week, the
current weather pattern will provide periodic chances for
precipitation, but overall, the week will be largely dry.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather returns for most, but scattered showers possible
  this afternoon north of I-80.
- Gusty winds, but just below advisory levels.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
 
In the wake of the cold front, clouds are beginning to exit as water
vapor imagery shows drier low and mid level air working in in
west to southwest flow which will lift the remaining lower
clouds out through the morning with lingering cirrus or perhaps
a few high-based cumulus in spots during the midday and
afternoon hours. An approaching upper trough north of Pittsburgh
will increase clouds again north of I-80 this afternoon, with
some scattered rain showers possible after 18Z or so, though
they will have to battle increasing dry air in the low levels as
dew points mix out some this afternoon despite southwest flow.

Winds will be notably gusty today with a strong pressure
gradient and deep mixing. Cold advection in the low levels will
steepen lapse rates and erode the weak inversion in place on the
12z sounding. Nearly all forecast soundings show the boundary
layer extending up close to 700mb by the afternoon, tapping into
stronger winds aloft. In general, guidance gives probabilities
of 100%/60%/5% for >30mph/>40mph/>45mph respectively (although a
few locally higher gusts are likely given the current synoptic
situation and deep mixing). Latest analogs support these max
values. Don't have the confidence that frequent advisory
criteria (46 mph) gusts will be reached, even in Eastern Tucker
County, so will continue mention in the HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Low PoPs north of I-80 tonight.
- Low-probability showers possible Tuesday into Wednesday,
  mainly south of Pittsburgh.
- Temperatures remain seasonable Tuesday, cooler on Wednesday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Flow will veer more westerly tonight with upper trough arrival,
and moisture will increase north of Pittsburgh. This will allow
scattered rain and snow showers north of I-80. However, limited
moisture penetration into the DGZ and falling inversion heights
along with warm ground temperatures will keep accumulation and
snow rates to a minimum.

Upper troughing remains in place on Tuesday, with temperatures
remaining seasonable and a few degrees cooler than Monday. There
continues to be some uncertainty related to crossing waves and
possible precipitation Tuesday and Tuesday night. Global models
still align with the last few days' trends of keeping most
precipitation south of our area. However, as we come in range
of the CAMs, HREF nudges PoPs into our area south of the Mason-
Dixon, and the HRRR in particular has showers as far north as
I-80 with the weak surface low farther north across the
Virginias. Regardless, somewhere in between is likely the actual
solution, with light shower chances increasing south of
Pittsburgh Tuesday. A second wave will swing through late
Tuesday into early Wednesday. Given thermal profiles, this will
likely fall as a mix of rain and snow, with any light
accumulation limited to the ridges Tuesday night.

Continued, but decreasing chances for light rain and snow
showers is expected Wednesday as upper troughing lingers. Drier
weather is then likely by Wednesday evening as surface high
pressure begins to build. Continued cold advection in
northwesterly flow will keep temperatures a bit below-average on
Wednesday (highs in the 30s and 40s).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
 
- Brief dry period under high pressure through Thursday.
- Shower chances return for Friday and the weekend.
- Temperatures remain seasonable through midweek before a likely
  warming trend.
------------------------------------------------------------------

Aforementioned surface high pressure should keep dry conditions
through Thursday. Daily precipitation chances then return for
Friday and the weekend, tied to uncertainty with shortwaves
rotating through the upper flow, although overall, precipitation
becomes more likely next weekend. Current expectation is that
most, if not all, of this potential precipitation would be in
the form of rain as opposed to snow.

While a return to, and then a rise above, seasonal norms is the most
likely outcome, the uncertainty regarding flow evolution is playing
havoc with ensemble temperature spreads towards next weekend.  To
illustrate: at Pittsburgh on Saturday, the spread between the 10th
percentile max temperature (61 degrees) and the 90th percentile
temperature (85 degrees) reaches 24 degrees on the current NBM
run.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Several TAF sites remain at VFR with a lingering stratocumulus
deck behind last night's cold front. Drier air working in on
southwest wind should lift ceilings to VFR through the morning,
with only cirrus and perhaps some isolated, high-based cumulus
during the afternoon. VFR is forecast through the afternoon and
the night with high confidence, save for perhaps FKL/DUJ, where
a rain or snow shower is possible during the afternoon into the
early evening, perhaps with a brief return of MVFR ceilings.

The main story today will be wind gusts. Deep mixing and a tight
surface pressure gradient will lead to increasing wind gusts
this morning, with frequent peaks of 25 to 35 knots from late
morning into early evening. Wind will slowly veer more towards a
westerly direction with time, with gusts slowly dropping off
during the evening and early overnight hours.

Outlook...
VFR is largely expected through mid week as the region
generally sits within the dry slot of a fairly stagnant upper
trough and some influence of surface high pressure to the
southwest. Embedded shortwaves within the upper trough pattern
may initiate low probability precipitation/restriction chances
that favor FKL/DUJ and the higher terrain, but model variability
remains high on these features.

A late week/weekend pattern shift to eastern CONUS ridging may
come with a transition period featuring increasing precipitation
and restriction chances.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...MLB/CL/88
SHORT TERM...Rackley
LONG TERM...Rackley/CL
AVIATION...CL/88

Source: PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 24, 9:56 AM EDT

---------------
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34
TOLEDO OH Mar 24 Climate Report: High: 44 Low: 28 Precip: 0.0" Snow: 0.0" Snow Depth: 0"

912 
CDUS41 KCLE 250529
CLITOL

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND, OH
129 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025

...................................

...THE TOLEDO OH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MARCH 24 2025...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1873 TO 2025


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                         
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         44   1202 AM  83    1910  52     -8       43       
  MINIMUM         28   1139 PM   1    1974  32     -4       21       
  AVERAGE         36                        42     -6       32     

PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  YESTERDAY        0.00                      0.08  -0.08     0.00     
  MONTH TO DATE    1.66                      1.98  -0.32     2.75     
  SINCE MAR 1      1.66                      1.98  -0.32     2.75     
  SINCE JAN 1      4.47                      6.63  -2.16     8.01     

SNOWFALL (IN)                                                             
  YESTERDAY        0.0                       0.1   -0.1      0.0     
  MONTH TO DATE    1.8                       4.7   -2.9      0.1     
  SINCE MAR 1      1.8                       4.7   -2.9      0.1     
  SINCE JUL 1     12.9                      35.5  -22.6      9.6     
  SNOW DEPTH       0                                                 

DEGREE DAYS                                                           
 HEATING                                                             
  YESTERDAY       29                        23      6       33       
  MONTH TO DATE  473                       651   -178      498       
  SINCE MAR 1    473                       651   -178      498       

 COOLING                                                             
  YESTERDAY        0                         0      0        0       
  MONTH TO DATE    0                         0      0        0       
  SINCE MAR 1      0                         0      0        0       
...................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    32   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION    SW (240)       
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    43   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION    SW (240)       
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED    15.6                                       


SKY COVER                                                             
  POSSIBLE SUNSHINE  MM                                                 
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.7                                                 


WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                   
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.                         
  NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED.                                 


RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
 HIGHEST    85          1000 PM                                     
 LOWEST     53           500 PM                                     
 AVERAGE    69                                                       

..........................................................


THE TOLEDO OH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                     
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   52        82      1945                     
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   33        -4      1974                     


SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
MARCH 25 2025.........SUNRISE   730 AM EDT   SUNSET   753 PM EDT     
MARCH 26 2025.........SUNRISE   728 AM EDT   SUNSET   754 PM EDT     


-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.




$$

Source: TOLEDO OH Mar 24 Climate Report: High: 44 Low: 28 Precip: 0.0" Snow: 0.0" Snow Depth: 0"

---------------
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35
SOUTH BEND Mar 22 Climate Report: High: 49 Low: 36 Precip: 0.0" Snow: 0.0" Snow Depth: 0"

849 
CDUS43 KIWX 222110
CLISBN

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
510 PM EDT SAT MAR 22 2025

...................................

...THE SOUTH BEND CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MARCH 22 2025...
VALID AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1893 TO 2025


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                         
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         49   1202 AM  83    2012  49      0       47       
  MINIMUM         36    921 AM   9    1906  29      7       31       
  AVERAGE         43                        39      4       39     

PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  TODAY            0.00          0.89 1977   0.07  -0.07     0.02     
  MONTH TO DATE    3.79                      1.67   2.12     2.80     
  SINCE MAR 1      3.79                      1.67   2.12     2.80     
  SINCE JAN 1      6.43                      6.64  -0.21     8.11     

SNOWFALL (IN)                                                             
  TODAY            0.0           4.9  1977   0.1   -0.1       T       
  MONTH TO DATE    0.4                       5.9   -5.5      0.4     
  SINCE MAR 1      0.4                       5.9   -5.5      0.4     
  SINCE JUL 1     38.1                      62.6  -24.5     30.3     
  SNOW DEPTH         0                                               

DEGREE DAYS                                                           
 HEATING                                                             
  TODAY           22                        26     -4       26       
  MONTH TO DATE  498                       658   -160      443       
  SINCE MAR 1    498                       658   -160      443       
  SINCE JUL 1   4720                      5392   -672     4282       

 COOLING                                                             
  TODAY            0                         0      0        0       
  MONTH TO DATE    0                         0      0        0       
  SINCE MAR 1      0                         0      0        0       
  SINCE JAN 1      0                         0      0        0       
...................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    24   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION    NW (320)       
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    33   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION    NW (300)       
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED    14.2                                       


SKY COVER                                                             
  POSSIBLE SUNSHINE  MM                                                 
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.8                                                 


WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                   
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY.                             
  NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED.                                 


RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
 HIGHEST    79           700 AM                                     
 LOWEST     42          1200 AM                                     
 AVERAGE    61                                                       

..........................................................


THE SOUTH BEND CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                     
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   49        78      1907                     
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   29         9      1916                     
                                             1940                     


SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
MARCH 22 2025.........SUNRISE   745 AM EDT   SUNSET   800 PM EDT     
MARCH 23 2025.........SUNRISE   743 AM EDT   SUNSET   801 PM EDT     


-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.




$$

Source: SOUTH BEND Mar 22 Climate Report: High: 49 Low: 36 Precip: 0.0" Snow: 0.0" Snow Depth: 0"

---------------
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36
INDIANAPOLIS IN Mar 24 Climate Report: High: 53 Low: 36 Precip: 0.0" Snow: 0.0" Snow Depth: 0"

878 
CDUS43 KIND 242033
CLIIND

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
433 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2025

...................................

...THE INDIANAPOLIS IN CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MARCH 24 2025...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1871 TO 2025


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                         
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         53    255 PM  84    1910  55     -2       54       
  MINIMUM         36    651 AM   2    1974  36      0       31       
  AVERAGE         45                        45      0       43     

PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  TODAY            0.00          2.76 1913   0.13  -0.13     0.00     
  MONTH TO DATE    2.08                      2.78  -0.70     1.79     
  SINCE MAR 1      2.08                      2.78  -0.70     1.79     
  SINCE JAN 1      4.77                      8.33  -3.56     8.33     

SNOWFALL (IN)                                                             
  TODAY            0.0          10.2  2018   0.1   -0.1      0.0     
  MONTH TO DATE    0.1                       2.8   -2.7       T       
  SINCE MAR 1      0.1                       2.8   -2.7       T       
  SINCE JUL 1     20.5                      24.9   -4.4      8.2     
  SNOW DEPTH       0                                                 

...................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    32   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION     W (250)       
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    42   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION     W (250)       
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED    16.8                                       


SKY COVER                                                             
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.4                                                 


WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                   
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY.                             
  NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED.                                 


RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
 HIGHEST    82           300 AM                                     
 LOWEST     35           300 PM                                     

..........................................................


THE INDIANAPOLIS IN CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                     
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   56        81      2007                     
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   36         5      1974                     


SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
MARCH 24 2025.........SUNRISE   742 AM EDT   SUNSET   802 PM EDT     
MARCH 25 2025.........SUNRISE   740 AM EDT   SUNSET   803 PM EDT     


-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.




$$

Source: INDIANAPOLIS IN Mar 24 Climate Report: High: 53 Low: 36 Precip: 0.0" Snow: 0.0" Snow Depth: 0"

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37
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 23, 11:43 PM CDT

513 
FXUS63 KPAH 240443
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1143 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms possible through early this
  evening. A few storms may be severe with large hail and
  damaging wind the main threats.

- Mainly dry and mild weather expected through most of the work
  week. Temperatures will be about five to ten degrees above
  normal values.

- The next chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms will
  arrive late this week into next weekend along with even warmer
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

A trough/frontal boundary sagging through the area this afternoon
may touch off some scattered showers and storms, mainly over
southern portions of western KY and southeast MO. That is where
temperatures have warmed into the 60s with dewpoints sneaking up
into the mid to upper 50s. Farther north temperatures have
struggled to warm out of the upper 40s or low 50s today. SB CAPE is
analyzed to push up close to 1000-1500 J/kg into western KY over
the next few hours. Mid level lapse rates are still favorable for
stronger updrafts (around 7C/km) over western KY and SEMO with shear
values around 40-50kts. This would allow for a few strong to severe
storms along the boundary this afternoon. CAMs develop a broken line
over SEMO before quickly shifting the line through west Kentucky by
6 pm. This is in line with the SPCs slight risk expansion this
afternoon. The main window for severe weather will be between 3
pm and roughly 6 pm before quickly moving out of the CWA.

Northwest flow will be in place across much of the central CONUS
through much of this week before gradually flattening by Thursday.
Upper-level disturbances will pass through the area on the northwest
flow allowing for increased cloud cover at times along with a few
chances of showers and storms. The first chance will be Tuesday with
potentially a stronger system late in the week. The system seems to
have slowed a bit, moving most of the precipitation and impactful
weather to Friday into Saturday. WAA showers will develop Friday as
moisture flow increases into the area with a better chance for
showers and storms on Saturday as an upper level low deepens and a
cold front pushes through the area. That system will be one to keep
an eye on if temperatures warm enough ahead of it and enough
moisture is dragged northward. That could potentially be the next
risk of severe weather even though it is too early to say for sure
at this time. Stay tuned for updates on that!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

A cold front has cleared the area leaving northwesterly winds
filtering drier air into the region. Where it rained a little
bit of ground fog is possible but it should be very limited. VFR
conditions with relatively light winds are forecast for
tomorrow.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...JGG

Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 23, 11:43 PM CDT

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38
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 25, 2:44 PM EDT

143 
FXUS63 KLMK 251844
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
244 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Light rain chances continue into late evening, mainly north of
  I-64.

* Warmer temperatures and increasing chances for showers and storms
  Friday through next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

The main story for this afternoon continues to feature gradients
across several different parameters. Extensive sky cover continues
across our northern CWA, along with some light rain occurring
beneath the left exit region of an upper jet. This continues to
diminish in coverage through the evening, but overall will keep some
slight chances in through evening, and across our far north
overnight.

Also noting a strong temperature gradient across the CWA, with low
to mid 40s across our far NE CWA, to the low to mid 60s across a
sunny central and southern KY. This gradient continues tonight and
tomorrow as we remain in the NW flow pattern with precip chances NE,
and clearer skies SW. Did want to mention that temps may fall around
freezing late tonight across our far NE CWA, if any very light
precip falls during that time it could be a brief mix. No impacts
expected, if at all.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Wednesday Night - Saturday Night...

Troughing aloft and surface high pressure will begin to move off to
the east Wednesday night into Thursday. Skies will remain mostly
clear and conditions dry through Thursday morning. Expecting to see
low temperatures below normal in the 30s, potentially the low 30s in
the Bluegrass.

Ridging over the central CONUS will begin to broaden out and
deamplify. Troughing over the desert SW will move over southern
Plains and into the TN/OH valleys. This wave, coupled with continued
and strong southerly flow pumping in moisture, will bring rain
chances each day. Friday and Saturday, there is a chance for gusty
showers and a few storms as a 50-55kt LLJ moves in from the west.
Temperatures will warm each day into the mid 70s by Friday.

Sunday - Early Next Week...

A trough originating off the coast of California will travel east
and develop a surface low pressure system east of the Rockies on
Saturday night. This low will begin to track east and strengthen.
With PWATs around 1.6-2.0 inches there will be plenty of moisture
ahead of this system. Plenty lift from troughing, CVA, and along the
cold front will help lift the moisture. A strong 55-60kt LLJ will
move over the region ahead of the front will help bring in strong
shear. Forecast soundings reveal a few hundred joules of SBCAPE with
little CIN. Low pressure is currently forecasted to move through in
the overnight hours Sunday into Monday. There is still uncertainty
in low track placement, however, these storm ingredients and a
consistent signal for strong to severe storms could bring all severe
hazards. SPC has the region within a 15% risk. In the next few
forecast periods, these trends are definitely something to watch, as
confidence continues to build.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Seeing a few lower clouds scattering in with the more prominent mid
level clouds across our northern TAF sites, although optimistic that
we will remain largely VFR. Can't rule out some -SHRA at
SDF/LEX/RGA over the next few hours, but overall little to no
impacts expected given very light intensity. Looking for steady NNE
winds, perhaps backing to NNW through the remainder of the
afternoon. Winds will slacken overnight, with a light component out
of the W or WNW. More clouds move in Wednesday morning, with steady
NW winds taking hold once again. A few light showers expected across
the northern TAF sites, but right now coverage is only 20% or less
so no mention.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...BJS

Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 25, 2:44 PM EDT

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39
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 24, 7:45 PM EDT

548 
FXUS63 KJKL 242345
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
745 PM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A series of sfc waves crosses the area tonight into Wednesday
  with successive rounds of showers - mainly affecting northeast
  parts of the state - but with generally a third of an inch or
  less of total rainfall.

- Near-normal temperatures are expected for much of the work week,
  but a significant warming trend is expected by next weekend.

- A strong low pressure system is expected travel northeastward
  and pass nearby or to our northwest late in the weekend,
  bringing our next significant round of showers and possibly
  thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 745 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2025

No significant changes were needed on this forecast update. Dew
points were the primary variable subject to minor changes as they
have been running a bit drier than forecast this evening -- as
low as the teens on the drier ridgetops north of the Hal Rogers
Parkway/Kentucky 80 corridor. The gusty breeze should subside
rather quickly with the lost of diurnal heating.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 428 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2025

Late this afternoon, an upper level low was centered to the north
and northeast of Lake Huron with a trough axis south across
portions of the Great Lakes to the OH and TN Valley to the
Southeast and the Gulf. An upper level ridge was in place to the
east of this trough over portions of the western Atlantic and the
Great Lakes while another ridge extended from parts of the
eastern Pacific into portions of the southwestern and western
Conus. Multiple shortwaves/disturbances were moving around this
ridge over the western Conus and into the trough. At the surface,
an ridge of high pressure extended form parts of the Southern
Plains into the Lower OH and TN Valley regions. Recent SPC
Mesoanalysis has 20 to 25KT winds at 850 mb nearer to the TN
border and 25 to 35KT in locations further to the north while 700
mb winds were analyzed between 30 and 40KT. JKL VWP has 20KT winds
up to 7kft msl with 25 to 30KT between 8kft and 10kft agl. With
rather deep daytime mixing, some of these gusts between 20 and
30KT and locally stronger or between 25 and 35 mph were occurring.

The sfc ridge of high pressure will build across central and into
easter KY this evening while winds and this combined with loss of
daytime heating this evening will lead to winds slackening toward
sunset. As the high moves across the area during the evening to
start of the overnight, low and mid level clouds are not expected
and eastern valley locations should decouple and likely cool off
into the 30s by around or shortly after midnight. Temperatures in
these areas should increase toward dawn. This will occur with the
arrival of mid and low clouds ahead of the first of these
shortwaves/disturbances moving to the mid MS Valley by the start
of the overnight hours and then it nears the OH Valley region
later tonight, before crossing eastern KY on Tuesday. This
shortwave departs to the east by Tuesday evening, but another
shortwave approaches from the northwest on Tuesday night.
Meanwhile, the previously mentioned sfc ridge of high pressure
will shift east and southeast of the Commonwealth overnight, 
settling across the Carolinas to VA by dawn on Tuesday. At the
same time, the sfc wave associated with the first shortwave should
track from parts of the Central Plains to the Lower OH Valley
region by dawn on Tuesday and then tracking across the
Commonwealth including eastern KY and across the Southern
Appalachians during the day on Tuesday. The surface frontal zone
should sag south of the Commonwealth by late Tuesday into Tuesday
night, though additional clouds and some chances for showers
linger Tuesday night with the departing shortwave and the approach
of the next.

A modest increase in moisture is expected with the shortwave and
surface system especially across the northeastern half to two
thirds of the forecast area with PW per the 12Z HREF climbing to
the 0.5 to 0.6 inch range from current levels in the 0.25 to 0.4
inch range. Moisture will begin to diminish in magnitude during
the afternoon to early evening as the sfc low tracks across the
southern part of the area and the associated shortwave passes. The
better combination of moisture and lift is expected to be north
of the sfc low track while locations nearer to the TN border
should experience lesser coverage of showers and QPF. Showers
should arrive toward or just after dawn for areas near and north
of the Mtn Pkwy and then spread across northern and eastern
sections of the area during the morning to afternoon hours. Winds
will have an upslope component at least at times for Tuesday night
and with moisture lingering below about 700 mb, additional
showers are possible. The BL will cool with surface temperatures
dropping into the 30s. However, dewpoints should also remain
generally above freezing and wetbulb temperatures and warm layer
depth sufficiently warm enough for whatever may fall late Tuesday
night to be all rain.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 454 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2025

A progressive longwave trough will be moving east across the
eastern CONUS on Wednesday. Under northwest flow aloft on the
back side of the trough, a disturbance/jet streak should be
translating through the trough over our area before the regime
shifts to our east. This could bring scattered showers to much of
the area during the day. Once this is gone, we can expect a brief
spell of dry weather from Wednesday night at least through the day
Thursday.

Late in the week, a major storm system will eventually take shape
over the middle of the CONUS and move northeast. However, the
details are still very uncertain. The GFS has a significant
shortwave trough heading from TX over the Ohio Valley from Friday
through Saturday while significant warm/moist advection off the
gulf occurs as far east as KY. This results in a possibility of
showers. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is weaker with the shortwave and
slower with the return of moisture/precip. A blended solution
dampens out the GFS solution and yields slight chance to chance
POP for our area Thursday night through Saturday.

Both the ECMWF and GFS have the most significant weather late in
the weekend, but there are still disagreements on the details. A
deep low, or couple of lows, are expected to track by to our
northwest. Ample moisture drawn into the system should result in
showers and possibly thunderstorms for us, with the most
favorable time being Sunday night (give or take a bit). With
strong wind fields expected, severe wx is a concern. In the end,
the degree of downsloping and amount of instability will need to
be considered, but it is much too far down the road to delve into
anything more than a broadbrushed approach.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2025

Gusty winds will quickly subside this evening with the loss of
daytime heating. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail through
12Z, though clouds will thicken and lower overnight with an
approaching disturbance. Shower chances rise late in the night,
especially over the northern half of the forecast area. As the
column moistens, MVFR ceilings are expected to develop near/north
of a KJKL to KPBX line after 12z and could dip to IFR at times.
Shower coverage should be significantly less and ceilings
generally higher further south. Slow improvement in flight
conditions can be expected by Tuesday evening.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEERTSON/JP

Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 24, 7:45 PM EDT

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40
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT, City of Toronto

Issued: 3:41 AM EDT Thursday 27 March 2025
Source: SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT, City of Toronto

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41
3 ESE Wilmington [Clinton Co, OH] ASOS reports Non-Tstm Wnd Gst of M47 MPH at 2:37 PM EDT -- KILN Peak Wind.

324 
NWUS51 KILN 241913
LSRILN

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
313 PM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 ESE Wilmington        39.43N 83.78W
03/24/2025  M47 MPH          Clinton            OH   ASOS             

            KILN Peak Wind.


&&

$$

NWS


Source: 3 ESE Wilmington [Clinton Co, OH] ASOS reports Non-Tstm Wnd Gst of M47 MPH at 2:37 PM EDT -- KILN Peak Wind.

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42
Charge surrender 6 goals in 3rd-period collapse vs. Sirens

'Two

The Ottawa Charge's playoff hopes took a beating Tuesday night following a 6-3 loss to the New York Sirens. The Charge blew a 3-0 third-period lead and allowed the last-place Sirens to score six straight goals.


Source: Charge surrender 6 goals in 3rd-period collapse vs. Sirens

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43
WORCESTER MA Mar 20 Climate Report: High: 63 Low: 38 Precip: 0.01" Snow: 0.0"

592 
CDUS41 KBOX 202124
CLIORH

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
524 PM EDT THU MAR 20 2025

...................................

...THE WORCESTER MA CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MARCH 20 2025...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0500 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1892 TO 2025


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                         
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         63    231 PM  77    1945  44     19       47       
  MINIMUM         38    726 AM   2    1949  27     11       28       
  AVERAGE         51                        36     15       38     

PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  TODAY            0.01          1.17 1954   0.14  -0.13     0.08     
  MONTH TO DATE    2.70                      2.68   0.02     4.97     
  SINCE MAR 1      2.70                      2.68   0.02     4.97     
  SINCE JAN 1      8.55                      9.46  -0.91    14.50     

SNOWFALL (IN)                                                             
  TODAY            0.0          10.5  1944   0.4   -0.4       T       
  MONTH TO DATE    0.5                      10.5  -10.0       T       
  SINCE MAR 1      0.5                      10.5  -10.0       T       
  SINCE JUL 1     33.8                      67.8  -34.0     37.0     

DEGREE DAYS                                                           
 HEATING                                                             
  TODAY           14                        30    -16       27       
  MONTH TO DATE  517                       645   -128      468       
  SINCE MAR 1    517                       645   -128      468       
  SINCE JUL 1   4846                      5395   -549     4488       

 COOLING                                                             
  TODAY            0                         0      0        0       
  MONTH TO DATE    0                         0      0        0       
  SINCE MAR 1      0                         0      0        0       
  SINCE JAN 1      0                         0      0        0       
...................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    21   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION     S (170)       
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    27   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION     S (160)       
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     6.9                                       


SKY COVER                                                             
  POSSIBLE SUNSHINE  MM                                                 
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.8                                                 


WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                   
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY.                             
  LIGHT SNOW                                                         
  FOG                                                                 
  FOG W/VISIBILITY <= 1/4 MILE                                       


RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
 HIGHEST   100          1200 AM                                     
 LOWEST     60           300 PM                                     
 AVERAGE    80                                                       

..........................................................


THE WORCESTER MA CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                     
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   44        73      2012                     
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   27         4      1986                     


SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
MARCH 20 2025.........SUNRISE   650 AM EDT   SUNSET   700 PM EDT     
MARCH 21 2025.........SUNRISE   649 AM EDT   SUNSET   701 PM EDT     


-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.




$$

Source: WORCESTER MA Mar 20 Climate Report: High: 63 Low: 38 Precip: 0.01" Snow: 0.0"

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44
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT, Kingston - Odessa - Frontenac Islands

Issued: 3:41 AM EDT Thursday 27 March 2025
Source: SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT, Kingston - Odessa - Frontenac Islands

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45
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT, Napanee - Consecon

Issued: 3:41 AM EDT Thursday 27 March 2025
Source: SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT, Napanee - Consecon

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If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!

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