LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 30, 1:51 AM EDT994
FXUS63 KLMK 300551
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
151 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Chances for afternoon/evening showers and storms today and Monday.
* Less humid conditions arrive Wednesday and Thursday.
* Isolated showers and storms are possible for Independence Day, but
most of the day will be dry.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 931 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025
Still seeing a bit of convection fire across the region this
evening, specifically between Louisville and Lexington. This
activity should continue to move off to the northeast over the next
several hours. A few more showers/storms may develop downstream
across south-central KY this evening. Shear and instability are
weak and the overall coverage looks to be around 20 percent or so.
Later in the overnight, an upper level trough axis will push into
the region. Shear values increase slightly, but are still fairly
weak overall. Last several HRRR runs have suggested that a cluster
of storms will develop over western KY and southwest IN and move
eastward. This would affect our north-central KY and southern IN
counties after midnight thorugh sunrise. Severe weather threat here
looks very low, but heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning would
be the main threats with that activity.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025
This afternoon...Temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s so far
and getting closer to convective temperatures. A very moist and
unstable environment will allow for scattered showers and storms to
develop this afternoon. These diurnal storms will begin to dissipate
this evening as the sun sets.
Tonight... Most of tonight will remain dry with broken skies. Light
southerly winds and recent precip may lead to some light, patchy fog
development especially in protected valley areas.
Monday and Monday Night... A trough will push through the Ohio
Valley bringing a cold front towards the region. This trough will
increase shear (although still weak) and bring some better forcing
to a present tropical airmass. Some CAMs want to bring a cluster of
showers and storms through in the early morning. These storms will
likely dissipate as they move east over the region. Mid morning
through early afternoon will remain dry with scattered skies. High
temperatures are expected to be in the mid-upper 80s. Scattered
showers and storms will then develop in the afternoon and evening as
the cold front approaches the region. These storms will have access
to 2000-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE, and slightly better lapse rates
compared to the previous few days. These conditions will allow for
storms (a few strong storms) to develop in the afternoon ahead of
the cold front. Storms will last through the evening and into the
first part of Monday night. Main threat is pulse cells, wet
microbursts, gusty to damaging winds, lightning, and heavy rain.
Storms will outrun the better forcing along the front and
instability will wane with sunset, allowing storms to steadily
weaken overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025
Tuesday - Thursday...
The cold front will push through the region on Tuesday bringing
lower dew points and more comfortable conditions to the region mid
week. Along the cold front scattered showers will be possible.
Surface high pressure will keep conditions dry during this time.
High temperatures will remain near normal in the mid to upper 80s.
Independence Day - Next Weekend...
An upper trough will swing over the northern Ohio Valley late week
bringing an isolated to scattered chance of showers and storms over
the northern half of the region on Friday. Brief ridging and high
pressure will move over the region on Saturday into Sunday, keeping
conditions dry and warm with temperatures in the low 90s. By late
Sunday and into early next week, ridging pushes east of the region
and precip chances increase.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 151 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025
Another muggy night with light south winds, and debris clouds that
aren't low or extensive enough for any restriction below VFR. Not
great agreement in the models regarding a batch of convection that
might come through after daybreak through about midday. Not
confident enough to include it at this time but will carry MVFR cigs
for a few hrs later in the morning.
The afternoon looks like yet another repeat performance with
scattered storms. Will handle that with a PROB30 from 18Z til 0Z
Tue, and while cigs won't drop below VFR any heavier shower or storm
will produce a period of IFR vis.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...RAS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 30, 1:51 AM EDT---------------
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