BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 25, 3:48 PM EST847
FXUS61 KBOX 252048
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
348 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A quick moving low pressure system moves across southern New
England Tuesday. This will bring widespread rainfall mainly in
the morning to late afternoon timeframe. Wednesday becomes
cooler, breezy, through remains dry. Thanksgiving features
unsettled conditions as mainly rain overspread the region with
some higher terrain snow possible. Drying out Friday into this
coming weekend with below normal temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Tonight:
Weak high pressure over the region will gradually shift eastward
as our next system approaches from the west. Winds are expected
to be light with temperatures dropping into the low to mid 30s
for the interior and mid to upper 30s for the coastal areas.
As the system approaches overnight, winds shift south to southeast
with weak warm air advecting in from the south. A plume of
above normal moisture also begins to shift into the southern New
England with precipitable water values around 170-200% of
normal. With the arrival of better synoptic ascent, clouds will
increase from west to east through the early morning hours
Tuesday. Rain chances begin increasing from west to east toward
sunrise.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages
* Rainy tomorrow with mild temperatures south of I-90
Tuesday:
Rain continues to increase toward eastern portions of southern
New England during the early morning commute. Overall this
system will be quick moving, so it will bring widespread
moderate rainfall mainly for the morning to late afternoon
timeframe. This is reasonable confidence in amount shown by
ensemble guidance with a good chunk of solutions in the 0.3 to
0.5" range for rain totals. Very welcome and beneficial rain
considering how dry this Fall has been overall. As the
system/rain exits late afternoon, winds shift to the NW behind
it.
The warm front/sector will set up a north-south gradient of
temperatures across southern New England keeping temperatures across
the south coast and Cape/Islands milder in low to mid 50s. Other
areas will range in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Tuesday Night:
Cooler air advects across the region tomorrow night under
westerly flow with breezy conditions across the higher elevation
spots and near-coastal areas. Temperatures drop into the upper
20s and low 30s for the interior. Coastal areas stay a bit
warmer with elevated winds with lows in the mid to upper 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Cooler, breezy, but dry for Wednesday.
* Thanksgiving and Friday feature unsettled conditions with
widespread rain for most, through higher terrain snow still can
not be ruled out.
* Dry and much colder this weekend.
Wednesday:
Short-lived area of high pressure to our south provides quiet
conditions for the busy travel day before Thanksgiving. Remaining
moisture in the low levels and adequate mixing, should promote a
blend of sun and clouds throughout the day. Wind gusts are elevated
for the first-half of the day, gusting 20 to 25 mph before lunch and
diminishing quickly there after. With mixing around 900mb and
forecast temperatures 0C to -4C at 925mb, should lead to below
normal highs in the 40s. Couple the cooler temperatures and wind the
apparent temperature during the afternoon will feel more or less in
the 30s to low 40s.
Thanksgiving & Friday:
Developing low roles off the Rockies Tuesday night into Wednesday
and moves up the east coast for Thanksgiving. Model guidance has
come in some what better agreement with regards to the storms track
with clustering of the ensembles from the coast of southern New
England to the Benchmark. But there is varying strengths/pressure of
the system - GFS weaker/warmer and ECMWF stronger/colder. That said,
the primary PType for this system is still rain, with some mixing
possible in the highest terrain, perhaps areas AOA 1,000 ft. There
we have seen some low to moderate probabilities for 20-40% for 3.0"
of snow for far northern Worcester County and northwest Franklin
County. Otherwise, beneficial rain is becoming more likely,
probability of 48 hour precipitation greater than 1.0" are between 60-
80%, with moderate probabilities, 30-50% of great than 2.0" mainly
across southern RI and southeast MA. Low pressure system moves into
Canadian Maritimes on Friday with the bulk of any precipitation coming
to and end. With cyclonic flow there may be a few lingering rain
showers or high terrain snow showers. Temperature-wise, highs are in
the middle and upper 40s on Thanksgiving and upper 30s and low 40s
on Friday.
Stay tuned for further updates!
Saturday through Monday:
Dry this weekend into Monday with the low pressure system located in
the Canadian Maritime and surface high building from the southwest.
The northwest flow ushers in a noticeably colder air mass and as a
result, day time highs range from the upper 30s to low 40s and night
time lows drop into the upper teens and 20s.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18Z TAF Update:
This Afternoon: High confidence, though moderate on gusts.
VFR. NW winds with gusts up to 22 kts early this afternoon.
Gusts diminish after 20z with wind speeds trending downward
into the evening.
Tonight: High confidence.
VFR conditions early evening with increasing clouds toward OVC
for the second half of the evening. Light W winds become S and
then SE by 12z Tue around 5-10 kt.
Tuesday: Moderate confidence.
Deterioration to MVFR, possible IFR ceilings with 4-6 SM -RA as
frontal system moves through. Areas of low level wind shear possible
given forecast 950 mb 25-35 kt southerly jet. SE to S winds
around 5-10 kt thru early afternoon, with winds becoming WSW/W
after 18z from west to east. Conditions gradually improve behind
the rain in the 22-03z timeframe.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. VFR. NW winds gusts up
to 20 kts with gusts diminishing around 20z. Winds continue to
decrease overall into the evening. Ceilings move in by 12z
lowering to MVFR by 15z. Rain pushes in from west in the 12-15z
timeframe. IFR ceilings are possible late morning-early
afternoon.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. VFR. NW winds
around 5-10 kt today, easing into tonight while becoming light S
to SE. Outside chance at MVFR ceilings by 10z but more likely
after then. Rain and MVFR ceilings move in 12-14z. IFR ceilings
possible after 15z through early afternoon.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance RA.
Thanksgiving Day: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. RA
likely.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance RA.
Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight through Tuesday
Winds have fallen below 25 kts this afternoon with seas 2-4 ft.
Let today's Small Craft Advisory expire as a result. Relatively
calm conditions overnight.
A quick moving systems will bring a period of higher
winds/waves with gusts up to 25 kts and wave heights 4-6 ft for
the outer water marine zones. This develops late afternoon into
early evening from south to north. Issued a Small Craft Advisory
for the outer water marine zones through Wednesday afternoon.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.
Thanksgiving Day: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 20 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Rain.
Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of
rain.
Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain.
Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Tuesday to noon EST Wednesday
for ANZ250-254.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to noon EST Wednesday
for ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Dooley/Mensch
NEAR TERM...Mensch
SHORT TERM...Mensch
LONG TERM...Dooley
AVIATION...Mensch
MARINE...Dooley/Mensch
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 25, 3:48 PM EST----------------
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