ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 26, 6:52 PM EST153
FXUS61 KILN 262352
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
652 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will approach the region on Wednesday and
move south of the area Wednesday night into Thursday bringing a
mix of rain and snow to the region. After the passage of this
system much cooler air will work into the region for the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Dry conditions are expected for the near term. There will be an
increase in high and mid clouds through the overnight hours.
Temperatures will start to rise slightly late in the overnight
hours as slightly warmer air works into the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A low pressure system will approach the region on Wednesday and
move south of the area Wednesday night into Thursday. While a
few snowflakes will be possible Wednesday morning generally
north of Interstate 70, expect primarily rain as the
precipitation type during the day on Wednesday. Temperatures
will warm to the 40s areawide on Wednesday.
More widespread precipitation will overspread the region
Wednesday night before tapering off during the day on Thursday.
Models have come in a little warmer than previous runs and
temperature profiles are still marginal for how much of the
precipitation will change over to snow. There is still some
potential that northwest of generally Dayton to Columbus could
be an area where rates will be high enough and temperatures
cool enough for a band of snow to develop. With temperature profiles
being right on the edge, decided not to go too high or low on
snowfall values and have a corridor of close to an inch.
Southeast of Interstate 71 expect little or no snow
accumulation.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A somewhat significant pattern change will be underway by the onset
of the long term period, with deep/sustained troughing evolving over
the eastern half of the CONUS this weekend through next week. This
will translate into a colder, and somewhat drier, pattern for us
locally in the OH Vly, with temps expected to generally be 10-20
degrees below seasonal norms for an extended period of time.
More specifically, the arrival of colder air aloft (and at the sfc)
will get the lake snow belts into a more active state Friday into
this weekend, but most of this activity will stay just off to our N
within the typical favored areas downstream (to the ESE) of Lake
Michigan and Erie. Cloud cover (with perhaps a few flurries from
time-to-time) should linger a bit near/N of the OH Rvr through the
daytime Friday before clearer conditions evolve locally as the LL
flow becomes a bit more westerly, advecting the lake effect moisture
more directly to the E of the lakes opposed to the ESE. Highs on
Friday and Saturday should generally top out in the upper 20s and
lower/mid 30s both days, N to S respectively. The coldest temps of
the season thus far are expected Friday night and Saturday night as
temps dip into the teens and lower 20s just about everywhere both
nights.
The one item of interest for the weekend will be the track of a weak
system embedded within the broader ern trough, which will pivot from
the mid MS Rvr Vly into the nrn TN Vly by Saturday night. This will
bring, at the very least, some increased cloud cover locally, but
will also bring the potential for some light snow, especially near/S
of the OH Rvr. As of right now, there are quite a few uncertainties
in the track of this system, with some latitudinal variability being
shown amongst the guidance. Either way, the lift and moisture
availability with this system will likely be on the meager/lighter
side, so any accumulations should be rather light locally (if any
are to occur at all). This being said, should this system be a bit
stronger and more well-defined than current solutions suggest, the
temp profile and cold ground temps would support efficient light,
more widespread, snow accumulation. This is a low probability
scenario at this point, but it is mentioned here for awareness
purposes.
In the wake of the Saturday night system, a reinforcing shot of cold
air will filter into the OH Vly, with more temps in the teens Sunday
night and Monday night, complemented by daytime temps generally in
the upper 20s to lower 30s. The arctic intrusion will stay with us
through at least midweek of next week, with some signs for more
reinforcing cold air arriving late next week once again. But the
main story for the long term period is going to be the extended
stretch of much below normal temps, which should last for 5-7+ days,
at the very least.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Recent satellite imagery depicts high level cloud cover moving
into the region from system to our west. The area remains quiet
overnight, with this increasing cloud cover and southwesterly
winds at 5 knot or less. Very dry air in the region will
preclude the development of overland fog tonight, however, with
light/calm winds, there is a chance for some river valley fog
development during the early morning hours on Wednesday.
Therefore, have added a short period of MVFR VSBY for KLUK given
proximity to moisture source. Confidence is low.
Any fog that does develop will dissipate after sunrise
Wednesday. As the high pressure shifts east Wednesday, a low
pressure system begins to move into the Ohio Valley from the
west, bringing moisture into the region. This will allow for
increasingly lowering CIGs throughout the day on Wednesday,
however, all sites should remain VFR.
Rain begins to move into the area Wednesday evening,
overspreading the region from east to west. With this, we will
see MVFR CIGs move into the western most TAF sites.
OUTLOOK... MVFR/IFR CIGs/VSBYs possible Wednesday overnight into
Thursday. MVFR CIGs possible again Thursday night into Friday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...LS/CA
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 26, 6:52 PM EST---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
