PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 26, 4:52 AM CST315
FXUS63 KPAH 261052
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
452 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A second system will move through the region Wednesday into
early Thanksgiving Day, bringing another round of light rain
showers and chilly temperatures.
- A wave of much colder and well below normal temperatures will
arrive after Thanksgiving through next weekend. While no
impactful winter weather is expected, some light snow showers
are possible next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2024
A cold front has pushed through the area this morning with a
1030 mb ridge setting up shop over KS/OK. As you'd expect
convergence aloft is strong behind the front and a pocket of
noticeably dry air at 850/925mb is moving in. Skies should clear
today with highs working into the low 50s despite the cool air
advection.
A broad trough generates a surface low to our southwest
that moves overhead on Wednesday. A very cold airmass trails
this system, with single digit temps currently over Canada,
which is quite a bit colder than anything that has worked this
way this season. Given the density of the airmass it would be
fair to expect it to progress fairly rapidly. So have went with
a little higher rain chances earlier in the day Wednesday as the
combination of low convergence and warm advection leads to
showers/light rain.
A brisk northwest wind moves in behind the front for
Thanksgiving Day, expected highs are in the upper 40s with more
clouds than sun trailing behind the upper trough/front. Winds
diminish Thursday night and the new forecast has lows 22-26
across the area. We stay chilly Friday and another front works
towards the area Saturday. Won't be shocked to see this frontal
passage work through a little faster than currently modeled.
Most models produce small QPF amounts. These would likely be all
snow given the temperature of the airmass but amounts look too
low to be impactful at all at this point.
The airmass behind this front is even colder. We started
November well above normal and it looks like we will start
December well below normal with max temps in the mid to upper
30s and lows forecast under 20 degrees. GFS/ECMWF ensembles keep
us in a northwest flow regime with below normal temperatures
through the end of the period.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 452 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2024
VFR conditions are forecast today with clear skies and light
winds. This light wind should become essentially calm by the
afternoon and remain calm overnight with VFR conditions
forecast.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 26, 4:52 AM CST---------------
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