PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 25, 9:51 PM CST454
FXUS63 KPAH 260351
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
951 PM CST Mon Nov 25 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light rain and drizzle will develop along a cold front this
afternoon. Temperatures will fall behind the front as much
colder air moves in.
- A second system will move through the region Wednesday into
early Thanksgiving Day, bringing another round of light rain
showers and chilly temperatures.
- A wave of well below normal temperatures will arrive after
Thanksgiving through next weekend. While no impactful winter
weather is expected, some light snow showers are possible
next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CST Mon Nov 25 2024
A weak trof axis is moving across the Midwest this afternoon
spreading height falls across the Great Lakes and Mississippi
River Valley. A sfc low is moving into southern Michigan with an
attendant cold front stretching south from this low across the
Quad State. Increasing ascent from the incoming trof is expected
to generate rain along the front through the rest of the
afternoon with only light rainfall amounts. Behind the front
winds will shift toward the northwest with high pressure
establishing itself across the plains. A drier and much cooler
airmass will filter in behind the front. Lows tonight will drop
into the upper 20's to lower 30's. High pressure at the sfc will
settle atop the Quad State on Tuesday providing clear skies and
cool temperatures. Highs will struggle to reach 50 degrees.
Flow aloft largely remains quasi-zonal into midweek, although
we begin to see signs of southwest flow as a weak shortwave
moves into the plains. There remains some discrepancies in this
next system, with the EC still the more progressive solution
while the trend across the GFS and CMC has been more progressive
as of late. Low pressure should develop underneath height falls
across the plains on Wednesday and will move northeast into the
Tennessee Valley by Thursday. Rain will develop and spread
across the area late Wednesday and into Thursday. Rainfall
amounts have continued to trend lower as well with the higher
amounts of less than a half inch confined to areas north and
east of I-24. The lowest amounts are expected across SEMO.
With an overall quicker trend, it is looking more promising
that we will dry out quicker for Thanksgiving. Now NBM only
keeps slight chance PoPs in the forecast for much of
Thanksgiving. High pressure settles in behind this system
introducing our next cold wave.
Friday through the weekend, we see a pattern change that looks
to last for several days. A positive PNA pattern develops among
an amplified h50 flow with lower heights across the east coast
and western Atlantic and upshear ridging out west. 850mb
temperatures will likely range from -2C to -8C throughout the
weekend contributing to temperatures as much as 10-20 degrees
below normal. Highs on Friday and Saturday will only top out in
the upper 30's to mid 40's, and Sunday looks to be the coldest
day with highs only in the 30's with some areas not seeing above
freezing. Overnight lows both Friday and Saturday will dip into
the 20's with teens across the board Sunday night. Wind chills
may drop into the single digits as well. While dry Friday into
early Saturday, a clipper system is still progged to move
through the region late Saturday. This may bring light snow to
the region so it will be worth watching over the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 945 PM CST Mon Nov 25 2024
Gusty northwest winds will diminish through Tuesday morning as
high pressure settles overhead through the rest of the day into
Tuesday evening. Light and variable winds are expected Tuesday
evening into Tuesday night. Any lingering MVFR conditions early
in the TAF period will quickly improve through the early
overnight hours.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...KC
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 25, 9:51 PM CST---------------
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