ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 25, 6:30 PM EST423
FXUS61 KILN 252330
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
630 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area this evening. High pressure
will build in for Tuesday, but then an area of low pressure
will pass south of the region on Wednesday. Much colder air will
settle in for the end of the week into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Cold front in western Indiana at mid afternoon will continue to
progress east and move through the region this evening. Radar
indicates that showers are starting to develop near the front.
These will increase in coverage and become widespread as they
move through the forecast area. In the wake of the front, winds
will become gusty. Clouds will persist through daybreak. Lows
will range from the lower 30s in west central Ohio and east
central Indiana to the lower 40s in south central Ohio and
northeast Kentucky.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build across the area through the period.
Clouds will decrease in the morning leading to a period of clear
skies in the afternoon. Then high clouds will increase on
Tuesday night, especially in the latter part of the night. Highs
will only be in the 40s to around 50 with lows in the upper 20s
to lower 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Wednesday and overnight will be the warmest of the period, with a
significantly colder airmass working in for the end of the week,
lasting into next week. Highs on Wednesday will be in the low to mid
40s with overnight lows in the mid 30s. Thursday will be cooler,
then the cold air becomes entrenched on Friday with highs in the
upper 20s to around 30, lasting through the end of the forecast.
Similarly, lows in the teens on Friday night should remain in the
teens through Monday night.
High pressure in the east on Wednesday will move east and away from
the region by nightfall. A strong but narrow area of low pressure
ejecting northeast from TX will track through eastern KY, with
widespread rainfall in store for the region Wednesday night, ending
early Thursday. In the west central Ohio, enough cold air may
undercut the exiting rainfall to have a mix of snow and rain before
it ends. Temperatures and low level thicknesses do not support any
accumulation if snow becomes the predominant weather type before it
ends.
While the surface low has passed on Thursday, trailing shortwave
energy will mark the change to westerly flow aloft. Friday will see
the axis of a weak upper l/w trough pass from west to east. A
reinforcing shot of cold air will follow the sharper and primary
upper level trough axis on Sunday.
Once the front exits our area on Thursday, high pressure in the mid
sections of the country will keep a northwest flow in the region
through the remainder of the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers will continue to fill in across the area over the next
hour or two ahead of an approaching cold front, with MVFR to
locally IFR vsbys likely. MVFR cigs will also trend into IFR
over the next hour or two. As the cold front moves through the
TAF sites in the 02-04Z timeframe, winds will become northwest
and increase to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots
possible. Showers will taper off behind the front as we head
into the overnight hours with cigs becoming MVFR and
then persisting through Tuesday morning. Clearing will develop
through early afternoon with VFR conditions expected through
the tail end of the TAF period.
OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities are likely
Wednesday night into Thursday. MVFR ceilings may linger Thursday
night into Friday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...JGL
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 25, 6:30 PM EST---------------
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