ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 25, 1:54 AM EST857
FXUS61 KILN 250654
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
154 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west and cross the area late
Monday through Monday evening. High pressure will build in
behind the front. A storm system passing south of the region
Wednesday night into Thursday will bring the next round of
precipitation.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Increasing southwesterly low level flow will develop through the
night across the region ahead of an approaching mid level short
wave. This will lead to some WAA through the night as well as
some weak isentropic lift. As the low levels moisten up through
the night, clouds will increase and a few light rain showers or
sprinkles will be possible. The best chance for this appears to
be across northwest portions of our area where will carry some
lower end pops through the early morning hours. Temperatures
will also bottom out this evening and then begin to slowly
increase overnight with increasing clouds and the developing
WAA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Cold front will move into the area Monday afternoon and pass off
to the east by late evening. Forcing with this system does not
become well aligned until it is starting to move out of the
forecast area. There could be some light showers in the morning
but better coverage will occur later in the afternoon into the
early evening both along a subtle pre-frontal trough as well as
the cold front itself. Rainfall amounts with this look rather
light. High pressure will start to build in late Monday night,
but clouds may not start to decrease until towards daybreak
Tuesday.
Highs will rise into the mid 50s to lower 60s with lows in the
mid 30s to lower 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tuesday looks to be dry as high pressure pushes across the Ohio
Valley. Rain returns Wednesday when vigorous low pressure is
forecast to reach Kentucky. Precipitation chances continue on
Thanksgiving, with rain and snow possible as colder air filters in
behind the low. A low chance of snow and rain lingers on Friday as
the system tracks slowly east. High pressure and dry weather appear
likely on Saturday. A ripple of short wave energy and moisture could
trigger snow Saturday night and Sunday.
Near normal high temperatures are forecast to start the period, with
highs in the 40s Tuesday and Wednesday. Readings slip to the upper
30s to low 40s on Thanksgiving, before a more significant drop to
the 30s is observed Friday, followed by even colder 20s and 30s
Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mid level ridge to slide east across the area overnight with the
flow backing southwesterly ahead of a trof developing into the
Plains. Surface low develops ahead of the progressive mid level
trof and tracks thru the Great Lakes today and tonight. Associated
southward trailing cold front to push thru the area tonight.
Pressure gradient will increase this morning as the cold front
starts to approach. Moisture increases with clouds thickening up
and lowering to MVFR early this morning. A weakening low level
jet may lead to some LLWS overnight into early morning, mainly
at the southern TAF sites.
Pcpn will then develop through the afternoon and continue into
this evening as the cold front moves into the region. MVFR to
ceilings drop to IFR with MVFR to locally IFR vsbys possible at
times with the pcpn into this evening. Gusty southerly winds
at 10-12 knots will swing around to the west and northwest as
the front moves through this evening.
OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings will occur into Tuesday
morning with some MVFR visibilities possible as well. MVFR to
IFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible again Wednesday
night into Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 25, 1:54 AM EST---------------
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