PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 24, 2:23 AM CST239
FXUS63 KPAH 240823
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
223 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High pressure will bring mild and mostly sunny conditions
today.
- A cold front will move through the region Monday, bringing
light rain showers followed by sharply cold temperatures on
Tuesday.
- A second system will bring a good chance of rain and chilly
temperatures for Thanksgiving Eve and Thanksgiving Day.
- A cold wave of well below normal temperatures continues to
look likely following Thanksgiving into the first few days of
December.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024
Today through Tuesday night...Surface high pressure and rising
H5 heights will bring a relatively mild and mostly sunny day
(other than high cirrus clouds). High temperatures will be 5-10
degrees above normal, in the lower to middle 60s. Southerly
winds will be breezy at times, with gusts of 20-25 kts possible
during the afternoon hours.
Monday will have a quiet start, but light rain showers will
develop during the morning and afternoon hours ahead of an
approaching surface cold front associated with a weak surface
inflection that will push through the Midwest/Great Lakes.
The bulk of the rain will fall during the afternoon and evening
hours, when better upper-level jet stream divergence will be
present. Still, rainfall totals will only range from a few
hundredths to around a tenth of an inch. High temperatures
Monday will still reach the lower to middle 60s despite the
clouds and rain chances.
Monday night into Tuesday, chilly high pressure from the
northern Great Plains will settle south and eastward into the
Midwest and Ohio Valley. This will bring a return of chilly,
below normal temperatures. After falling into the lower to
middle 30s Tuesday morning, high temperatures will generally
reach the middle to upper 40s Tuesday afternoon.
Wednesday through Thanksgiving (Thursday) night...Rainy weather
will return for Thanksgiving as a southern stream surface low
organizes over the southern Great Plains and pushes eastward
into the Mid- South. This system will spread a chilly rain into
the region, beginning Wednesday afternoon/evening and continuing
through the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. Precipitation
will wind down Thursday night into Friday morning. While nearly
all the precipitation looks to fall as rain, it could end as a
light rain/snow mix late Thursday night north of Interstate 64.
No accumulation is expected if this does occur.
Temperatures will moderate a bit Wednesday, with highs ranging
from the upper 40s to upper 50s from north to south,
respectively. However, as cold air gets drawn southward into
the system, high temperatures will only reach the lower to
middle 40s on Thanksgiving Day. Rainfall totals still look to be
fairly modest, ranging from 0.10-0.25" over southeast MO, to
0.25-0.75" across southern IL, southwest IN, and the KY
Purchase. Totals of 0.75-1.25" are forecast over the KY
Pennyrile.
Friday and beyond...Following the departure of the Thanksgiving
system, a wave of cold, well below normal temperatures still
looks likely to impact the region. Right now, temperatures
around 10-15 degrees below normal are forecast Friday through
next weekend, which would yield high temperatures in the middle
30s to lower 40s respectively from north to south. Overnight
lows will fall into the teens and 20s, with morning wind chill
values in the single digits or lower teens likely.
Some model guidance like the ECMWF ensemble is much more
aggressive with the cold, so downward revisions in the
temperatures forecast are definitely on the table. The airmass
looks to be cold and dry, so despite the favorable thermal
profiles, no wintry precipitation is expected at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 504 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024
Satellite shows the clearing line finally working across KEVV,
having just occurred at KOWB. SCT-BKN250 bases may occur after
clearing, at all terminals. Winds become light/nearly calm
tonight but as high pressure shifts east thru tmrw, gusty
southerlies return.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DH
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 24, 2:23 AM CST---------------
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