ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 23, 4:14 AM EST128
FXUS61 KILN 230914
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
414 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
The threat for showers and drizzle will end this morning as low
pressure moves farther east. Dry weather is expected Saturday
and Sunday as high pressure takes over. Showers return on Monday
with low pressure and a cold front approach from the west.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Cyclonic flow along with fetch off the lakes will lead to
continued low clouds. This moisture is trapped below an
inversion. Light rain showers and drizzle are being observed
across the area. As the 8H flow backs - expect this pcpn to cut
off by mid morning.
Under cloudy skies highs temperatures will top out in the mid
and upper 40s. Northwest winds look to gust to around 25 mph at
times.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Northwest flow aloft with the center of high pressure
tracking across the SE CONUS. This will provide dry weather
tonight and Sunday. Clouds may eroded across the southwest
tonight with most locations observing a decrease in clouds on
Sunday. Lows tonight are forecast in the lower and middle 30s.
Temperatures warm up Sunday with highs from near 50 northeast to
the upper 50s southwest.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure will be lifting from the middle Mississippi Valley into
the Great Lakes States Sunday night into Monday. This low will drag
a cold front through the Ohio Valley. This will lead to rain for
Monday, especially late in the day. Cool high pressure will follow
the system on Tuesday into Wednesday under generally zonal mid-level
flow.
A lower latitude disturbance moving from the southern Plains into
the Kentucky and Tennessee Valleys will bring more precipitation
late Wednesday and Thursday. The best lift will likely be focused
across our southern counties where the precipitation type should be
mostly rain... though can't rule out some light snow mixing in
further north in the weaker forcing where there is less warm air.
The longwave pattern will begin to change behind this system late
week. A trough will dig across the eastern United States while
ridging builds out West. It appears some shortwave energy will dive
southeast toward the Ohio Valley Friday. This will produce a chance
of light snow to close the extended period.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cyclonic flow off the lakes will lead to continued low ceilings
thru the night and into Saturday. A few light rain showers or
drizzle will end overnight with little impact on visibility.
Ceilings will be very slow to improve, and should remain MVFR
thru the morning. By afternoon, some improvement is possible,
with VFR conditions develop from the southwest during the evening.
Northwest winds gusting to around 20 kts will gradually begin
to diminish toward morning. Northwest winds around 10 kts will
back westerly today and then to the southwest at less than 10
kts tonight.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible Monday afternoon
through Tuesday morning.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 23, 4:14 AM EST---------------
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