IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 22, 2:48 AM EST225
FXUS63 KIWX 220748
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
248 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Slick spots will be possible during the morning commute,
especially on bridges and overpasses. Lake effect rain showers
prevail during the day today.
- It will be dry and seasonable for the weekend, with the next
chances for rain arriving Sunday night into Monday.
- Additional chances for rain/snow will be possible mid to late
week around Thanksgiving.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024
The low pressure system responsible for bringing us the first snow
of the season yesterday will continue to affect conditions today
as low clouds linger, temperatures remain below normal, and
additional precipitation will be possible. With temperatures in the
upper 20s to low 30s for lows this morning, slick spots are
possible for the Friday morning commute, especially on bridges
and overpasses.
A tightening pressure gradient on the backside of the low will
result in strong, gusty winds today, with gusts up to 30-35 mph
possible. Favorable north/northwesterly fetch will result in
scattered lake effect rain showers downwind of Lake Michigan,
especially west of I-69. Forecast soundings indicate that
temperatures should be above freezing in the low to mid levels,
allowing for much of the precipitation to fall as rain. There
could be a brief period of freezing rain or drizzle this morning
should these showers start before surface temperatures rise
above freezing. Highs will be in the low to mid 40s today. Lake
effect showers come to an end by early Saturday morning.
Dry conditions prevail through much of the weekend as subsidence
returns. Highs will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s, which is near
normal for this time of year. A large area of low pressure ejects
out of the Colorado Rockies on Sunday, traversing the Central Plains
and arriving to our area by Monday. With temperatures in the 40s,
precipitation will fall as rain late Sunday into the day on Monday.
Additional chances for rain/snow will be possible mid to late in the
week around Thanksgiving. It still too far out to determine impacts,
if any, for the Thanksgiving travel period. The intensity, timing,
and precipitation type(s) with this system will have to be ironed
out in the coming week. It is worth noting that even a week out,
both the ECMWF and GFS show much colder air arriving after
Thanksgiving. The Climate Prediction Center is highlighting the end
of November and beginning of December for much below normal
temperatures across much of the CONUS in their 8-14 Day Outlook.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024
Upper low will continue to shift east overnight with a pocket of
strong subsidence/dry air advection supporting a brief return
to VFR conditions at present. However, as the flow continues to
back, lake effect clouds and rain will spread across the area
beginning later this morning. Steady cold, cyclonic flow over
warm lakes will yield low MVFR ceilings through much of the
period. Rain will not be constant but do expect periodic
showers for much of the day as well as gusty NW winds.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...AGD
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 22, 2:48 AM EST---------------
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