PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 20, 3:04 AM CST693
FXUS63 KPAH 200904
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
304 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A significant cool down can be expected today through
Saturday, with gusty winds Wednesday and Thursday.
- Wind chill values are expected to drop into the mid to upper
20s for a good portion of the area Thursday morning and again
Friday morning. Very light rain/snow mix possible in southwest
IN Thursday, but no impacts expected.
- A warm up will begin late in the weekend, with chances of
light rain returning Sunday night into Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024
Upper level troughing will linger overhead as dry high pressure
gradually builds in from the west through Saturday. This will
allow temperatures to drop below normal. A couple shortwaves
are progged to pass through the area Thursday, which may help
touch off a few showers over southwest IN and far eastern
portions of southern IL. Not expecting much precipitation, but
it may not be completely dry in those areas. Thermal profiles
may be just cold enough for some wet snowflakes; however, no
impacts are expected with surface temperatures around 40.
Outside of a few clouds passing through the area, the rest of
the CWA is expected to remain dry. As the aforementioned
pressure gradient tightens and deeper mixing occurs with
troughing overhead, winds are expected to increases and become
gusty (to around 20-30mph) this afternoon and again Thursday
afternoon. Temperatures will cool into the 40s to low 50s
through Saturday with overnight lows dropping into the low to
mid 30s. The combination of wind and colder temperatures will
lead to wind chill values in the mid to upper 20s Thursday and
Friday morning!
A warm front will lift north through the area Saturday night into
Sunday as the upper-level flow becomes more zonal across the CONUS.
This will lead to moderating temperatures along with scattered
showers for Sunday into Monday. Temperatures are forecast to warm
back into the upper 50s to low 60s for that time period. Could even
see a 70 degree reading on Monday. Quite a bit of model differences
remain for Tuesday, so stuck with a blend of the guidance. That
leads to cooler temperatures along with lingering showers.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1138 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024
Very little change to the forecasts for this update. A chance of
VFR showers was added to KMVN from 09Z-12Z. Otherwise, still
looking for a few hours of 5-10kft ceilings at all sites
overnight into the morning and west northwest winds gusting
20-25kt throughout the area through the day. The gustiness will
mostly subside by 00Z, but some lesser gusts may continue
through the evening. Dense fog will be a problem to the
southeast of a KCEY to KM21 line. It will dissipate as the winds
pick up before sunrise. There is an outside chance that the fog
could reach KOWB briefly before the winds arrive.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM CST early this morning for
KYZ012-016-017-019>022.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...DRS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 20, 3:04 AM CST---------------
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