PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 19, 11:38 PM CST067
FXUS63 KPAH 200538
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1138 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A significant cool down can be expected for Wednesday through
Saturday, with gusty winds Wednesday and Thursday.
- Wind chill values are expected to drop into the mid to upper
20s for a good portion of the area Thursday morning and again
Friday morning.
- A warm up will begin late in the weekend, with chances of
light rain returning Sunday night into Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1251 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024
A large, swirling, deep-layer low pressure system is situated
over MN/ND this afternoon. To it south chilly air is riding in
behind a cold front that is moving through MO/IA and should be
moving into the quad-state in the overnight hours tonight. A
leading front that is behaving a little more like a dryline has
mostly cleared the area save for Todd and Christian Counties in
Kentucky where some residual mid-low clouds persist. Winds are
light to to moderate out of the west with temperatures climbing
to around 70 degrees.
By daybreak Wednesday the approaching front should be through
most, if not all, of the region bringing much cooler
temperatures with highs tomorrow around 15 degrees lower than
todays maxes. Winds will be out of the northwest and gusting to
around 25-30 mph. There is a very small chance of a little rain
or a few sprinkles in the late night and early morning over
parts of northwest KY/SWIN and far southeast Illinois.
During the day Thursday an upper level closed low moves over the
Great Lakes and a surface low develops and shoots southward
across IL/IN. This gives us another shot at some precip in the
Evansville/Owensboro area and a reinforcing shot of cooler air.
The source airmass region is not extremely cold but it will be
cooler than anything we have experienced the last few weeks.
Straight NBM appears too warm owing to the built-in bias
correction over the last few weeks and went closer to the 50th
percentile raw values which take us below freezing Thursday
night and Friday night. As far as precipitation type, there is
some support in the deterministic and ensemble guidance for snow
or sleet, although the general idea seems to be that moisture
departs as the coldest air arrives - which would help limit any
impacts. Although there does appear to be a chance for at least
a few snowflakes in the air. The current forecast has at least
a few moments of rain/snow mix in parts of SWIN and northwest
KY.
For the weekend the upper level pattern becomes more zonal with
subtle ridging over the upper midwest. This allows for some
return flow from the south which should warm temperatures up a
bit. A fast moving low emerges from the Rockies and zips
northwest of the region through Monday in the 12z GFS/ECMWF
suite. The upper level flow is subtle and complex however at
this range and the run-to-run continuity is poor which would
lead to lower than average confidence. The front that moves
through behind this system would be pulling in air that would
have had time to freeze up over northwest Canada mixing with
some cross-polar flow, but we will see how that plays out.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1138 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024
Very little change to the forecasts for this update. A chance of
VFR showers was added to KMVN from 09Z-12Z. Otherwise, still
looking for a few hours of 5-10kft ceilings at all sites
overnight into the morning and west northwest winds gusting
20-25kt throughout the area through the day. The gustiness will
mostly subside by 00Z, but some lesser gusts may continue
through the evening. Dense fog will be a problem to the
southeast of a KCEY to KM21 line. It will dissipate as the winds
pick up before sunrise. There is an outside chance that the fog
could reach KOWB briefly before the winds arrive.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM CST Wednesday for KYZ012-016-017-
020>022.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...DRS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 19, 11:38 PM CST---------------
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