PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 19, 5:35 AM CST650
FXUS63 KPAH 191135
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
535 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A significant cool down can be expected for Wednesday through
Saturday, with gusty winds Wednesday and Thursday.
- Wind chill values are expected to drop into the mid to upper
20s for a good portion of the area Thursday morning and again
Friday morning.
- A warm up will begin late in the weekend, with chances of
light rain returning Sunday night into Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024
The initial cold front has passed through the Quad State region
early this morning, pushing the showers and thunderstorms out of the
area. In fact, skies are steadily clearing from the west to start
the day. The associated surface low and upper-level low will lift
north through Minnesota through this afternoon into this evening. As
that happens, a secondary cold front is expected to pass through the
area from west to east late this afternoon into this evening. Strong
CAA is expected behind the frontal boundary as noted by tighter
solenoids associated with the pressure gradient and lowering 500mb
heights. That's just a fancy way of saying it is going to get much
colder from late evening through the rest of the night. There could
be a brief increase in cloud cover along the front; however, it is
expected to remain dry across the area. Highs today will be in the
upper 60s to low 70s. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 30s to
around 40 over SEMO and into the low 40s elsewhere.
As upper level troughing lingers overhead and dry high pressure
builds into the area, we can expect temperatures to drop below
normal for Wednesday through Saturday. A shortwave is progged to
round the base of the trough by Thursday afternoon, which may help
to touch off a few showers over southwest IN and far eastern
portions of southern IL. Not expecting much precipitation, but it
may not be completely dry in those areas. Outside of a few clouds
passing through the area, the rest of the CWA is expected to remain
dry. As the aforementioned pressure gradient tightens and deeper
mixing occurs with troughing overhead, winds are expected to
increases and become gusty (to around 20-30mph) Wednesday afternoon
and again Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will cool into the upper
40s to 50s through Saturday with overnight lows dropping into the
low to mid 30s. The combination of wind and colder temperatures will
lead to wind chill values in the mid to upper 20s Thursday and
Friday morning!
A warm front will lift north through the area Saturday night into
Sunday as the upper-level flow becomes more zonal across the CONUS.
This will lead to moderating temperatures along with scattered
showers for Sunday into Monday. Temperatures are forecast to warm
back into the upper 50s to low 60s for that time period.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 520 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024
Some scattered low clouds are expected to dissipate this
morning as a frontal boundary continues to shift east. VFR
conditions are then anticipated for the rest of the day.
Another cold front will arrive later this afternoon into this
evening; however, moisture will be limited and the main impact
is expected to be a wind shift and increase in winds.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KC
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 19, 5:35 AM CST---------------
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