ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 21, 12:42 PM EST482
FXUS61 KILN 211742
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1242 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will migrate from the Great Lakes through the
region through Friday before moving off to the east coast this
weekend. Multiple disturbances rotating around this low will bring
periods of snow showers mixed at times with rain showers, gusty winds,
and much cooler temperatures. Dry conditions return for the weekend
as high pressure builds into the region with precipitation chances
returning on Monday. Weekend temperatures return to seasonable
normals.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Recent radar returns indicate the first wave of snowfall moving
southeast out of the CWA into JKL and RLXs areas. Some higher
reflectivity (~30dBZ or so) bands were embedded, dropping some
efficient snowfall rates. Observations indicate that road
temperatures are still in the upper 30s to low 40s and ODOT
cameras show a lot of wet roads out there, but nothing snow
covered.
As this pivots southeast out of the area, northwesterly flow
picks up in earnest, reinforcing the CAA and increasing our
winds. Sustained winds around 15-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH are
expected through the afternoon. With ambient temperatures in the
30s, stronger winds allow for "feels like" temperatures to drop
into the 20s.
Previous discussion->
Deep mid level low centered over Lower
Michigan to track across northern Ohio today and into PA
tonight. A disturbance to rotate around this low thru the area
this morning. As a result snow showers moving across Central
Indiana will track east across the area this morning, with the
possibility of some banded heavier areas of snow. These snow
showers will be scattered, but areas under heavier snow showers
or bands could have temporary reductions to visibilities. Model
solutions have generally trended slightly north with the best
coverage of snow showers looking to occur along and just south
of the I-70 corridor. Road temperatures are starting out warm so
the reduced visibility looks to be the main impact with this
initial snow this morning. Some lighter snow showers may
continue into the early afternoon.
A second mid level disturbance and associated surface low to
rotate around the 5H low thru Indiana/southwest Ohio this
evening and into KY overnight. In response to this feature,
a steadier area of snow will move into the area late in the
afternoon and into this evening. Model solutions have trended a
little west with the best coverage of snow across southeast
Indiana, Southwest Ohio and Northern Kentucky - where 1 to 2
inches of snow are possible prior to tapering off overnight.
Most of the snow will accumulate on grassy/elevated surfaces but
given that Metro model shows pavement temperatures beginning to
drop into the mid 30s after sunset, some impacts on roads will
be possible. With it being the seasons first snowfall - have
issued a winter weather advisory from 4 PM to 4 AM.
Snowfall moves southeast out of the region overnight.
Cooler temperatures only reach highs today from the mid 30s
northwest to 40 over the southeast. Overnight lows fall to the
mid 20s to around 30.
West winds to gust up to 30 mph today and 25 mph overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
Deep mid/upper level low to move off to the east coast with a
an impulse rotating around that system dropping south across
the region on Friday. This will result in more showers Friday
which starts as a mix of rain and snow showers before changing
over to all rain as low level temperatures warm up.
Temperatures will still be below normal on Friday, with highs
in the lower and middle 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Precipitation will be exiting to the east to start the long term
period Friday night. In the wake of the departing upper low, heights
will rise and surface high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley
from the southwest Saturday into early Sunday. Temperatures will be
above normal.
The next mid-level disturbance and an associated surface low will
move into the Upper Midwest states late Sunday into Monday. This
will pull deeper moisture into the region and cause rain on Monday.
Our period of mild temperatures will end behind the system Tuesday
into Wednesday as cold surface high pressure builds in from the
west.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Recent radar reflectivities indicate residual snow showers
moving through all TAF sites, but these will end from west to
east within the next hour or two. VSBYs improve once snow
departs. CIGs remain MVFR with patches of VFR moving through for
the next several hours. Thursday afternoon winds remain out of
the west/northwest, around 10-15 knots with gusts up to 25
knots. Winds decrease slightly during the overnight hours.
Snow associated with next disturbance can already be seen on
radar, moving into northwestern and central Indiana, making its
way toward the Tri- State and OH/IN border.
Recent guidance has trended this snow farther west, so have
removed mention of precip from KCMH/KLCK TAFs. In terms of
timing, widespread snow will move into the OH/IN border and Tri-
State area around 22Z. VSBYs and CIGs will drop to IFR in these
areas, with patchy LIFR possible with heavier snow. Snow tapers
off shortly after midnight and VSBYs improve, but CIGs likely
stay IFR through the night. CIGs lift to MVFR nearer to sunrise
(KCMH/KLCK stay MVFR all night, barring any stray precip moving
through).
Friday again has chances for precipitation in the forecast,
however, temperatures rise enough that any precip will fall as
rain. Want to note that Friday precip looks patchy and not at
all widespread, therefore have left mention out from all sites
except KCMH/KLCK. Winds pick up again on Friday, out of the west
around 10-15 knots, with gusts up to 25 knots possible.
OUTLOOK... MVFR ceilings likely continuing through Friday and
into Saturday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST
Friday for OHZ042-060>062-070>072-077>081.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST
Friday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST
Friday for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...CA/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CA
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 21, 12:42 PM EST---------------
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