JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 21, 1:14 PM EST171
FXUS63 KJKL 211814
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
114 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Colder with snow showers expected late morning through mid- to
late afternoon today (Thursday).
- A large area of widespread steady light snow develops quickly
late this afternoon or early evening from northwest to
southeast, and continues through much of the overnight. Snow may
mix with or change to drizzle toward morning.
- Snow changes to rain toward midday Friday as warmer air moves
into the area from the west, with the latest changeover at
higher elevations along the Virginia border.
- Locations most likely to receive impactful snow accumulations
are those elevations above 1500 feet, mainly this evening into
the overnight.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 114 PM EST THU NOV 21 2024
We are seeing the cold front quickly advance southeast across the
area this afternoon. This is leading some mainly snow showers this
afternoon, with steep low level and some 950mb frontogenesis.
Some of these snow showers will be squall like at times with gusty
winds and reduced visibilities. However, given the warm ground
temperatures these have not be overly concerning in term of roads
and most webcams indicate these are melting on contact in most
cases, with light accumulations of grassy surfaces. These the
move out in the next couple of hours or so and will we see a
general lull later this afternoon ahead of the next round later
this evening. Overall made some updates to PoPs to better show the
trend of the showers this afternoon and made this all snow given
the observations we have seen this afternoon and wet bulb
potential. Also, continued to adjust wind gusts to better handle
the trends with the front. Outside this more minor update overall.
UPDATE Issued at 1018 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
A cold front continues to push southward across Kentucky this
morning. This will push across the area this morning into the
early afternoon from northwest to southeast. This is leading to
some snow showers starting to push into area mainly north of the
Mountain Parkway so far this morning. When looking at road
cameras in these areas the roads are just wet given the warm
ground and pavement temperatures and therefore only expect these
snow showers to cause some visibility restrictions. Updated to
better handle the winds along the front, as we are seeing 20-30
mph gusts already with the front this morning in parts of northern
Kentucky. Also, updated hourly temperatures to better handle the
trends with the front as well. All this said, leaned more on the
short term blends and HRRR/RAP for much of these edits. Outside
this only minor changes made to the forecast overall.
UPDATE Issued at 722 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
Cold front continues to approach eastern Kentucky from the
northwest as expected. Trimmed PoPs back somewhat for the next few
hours, but not significantly. Updated grids with the latest
observations as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 538 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
Cold front crosses the area this morning into early afternoon,
allowing for scattered snow showers to develop across eastern
Kentucky, especially northeast of US Highway 421. Gusty winds can
also be expected with gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range. No snow
accumulation is expected given warm surface temperatures. However,
a post-frontal low moving southeast across the area this evening
into the overnight will push widespread light snow across eastern
Kentucky. Despite marginal surface temperatures in the lower 30s,
have decided to expand the Winter Weather Advisory to include much
of the forecast area except for the far southwestern counties.
Decent snow rates in some areas this evening will likely allow for
brief slushy accumulations on some roads, but this will be brief
as any slush should quickly melt. For most locations below
1,500-ft elevation, snow will accumulate primarily on elevated and
grassy surfaces.
A potential complication for the early morning hours Friday will
come with warming temperatures in the dendritic growth zone,
enough so such that a period of fog, drizzle, and even freezing
drizzle cannot be ruled out. However, this is expected to be brief
and not cause any additional impacts at this time.
Yet another wrap-around surface trough will bring another round of
rain and mountain snow Friday afternoon into the overnight, but
warming temperatures will limit any snow accumulations to the
highest of elevations along the Virginia border.
Highs today will only climb slightly from current temperatures in
the upper 30s, with temperatures dropping through the afternoon
behind the cold front passage. As widespread light snow develops
across the area toward sunset, expect temperatures to hover near
or just above freezing in the lower to mid-30s and remain steady
until precipitation ends Friday morning. Highs climb back into the
lower 40s Friday as drier air tries to move in from the west.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 415 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
An upper level low that was forecasted to bring rain, snow, and
breezy winds to the state Thursday, will have moved off to the north
and east, over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states by Saturday.
Some wrap around moisture may linger across extreme eastern portions
of Kentucky leading to a shower or two early. Otherwise, quiet
weather returns to eastern Kentucky for the weekend. Highs Saturday
are forecasted to remain chilly, reaching the upper 40s to near 50.
Lows are expected to be in the upper 20s to low 30s in the valleys,
with mid 30s along ridgetops. Winds will remain light and gradually
shift from a westerly wind to a southerly wind heading into Sunday.
This warm air advection will aid in temperatures climbing into the
upper 50s, to 60 in some spots. Lows will be in the upper 30s to
low 40s in valleys, and mid 40s along ridgetops.
Sunday evening into Monday the next weather system begins to unfold
across the Dakotas and Central Plains. As this trough over the
Dakotas deepens, a cold front is modeled to traverse Kentucky
Monday. This will give eastern Kentucky its next quick bout of
rain. At current Tuesday looks dry, however that could change with
some model discrepancies beyond Tuesday. Highs Monday are
expected to be warm, in the low 60s, but cooling into the upper
40s to low 50s for Tuesday.
Meanwhile, in the Pacific northwest, a trough of low pressure,
associated with an atmospheric river will quickly eject of out the
Intermountain West and across the Tennessee Valley, Wednesday and
Thursday. At current, this looks to have the potential to be a real
rain maker. Highs both Wednesday and Thursday are forecasted to
range in the upper 40s to low 50s, with lows in the upper 20s to low
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST THU NOV 21 2024
A cold front continues to quickly advance across the region this
afternoon. This is leading to a line of snow showers at times on
the moderate side. This will reduce visibility and lower CIGs at
times over the next couple hours into the IFR or lower range.
These will relent through the afternoon as we loose better
moisture before the next round. That said, we have another round
of light to moderate snow set to push southeast into the area
later this evening and into the overnight hours. Once again this
would lead to period of lowering Vis and CIG restrictions back
into the IFR or lower range mainly between 01Z to 03Z timeframe.
These will slowly improve as we move into the early morning hours
on Friday. There is yet another band of rain and/or snow possible
Friday, but still some uncertainty on exact timing on this
activity as of right now. The winds have also been quick gusty
ahead of the front in the 20-30 mph range in most cases. However,
these sill slacken some through the afternoon and evening.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
Friday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-080-086-104-106>112-
114-116-119.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Friday for KYZ087-113-115-117-120.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
Friday for KYZ088-118.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...DJ
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 21, 1:14 PM EST---------------
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