IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 17, 11:55 AM EST187
FXUS63 KIND 171655
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1155 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warming trend back to the 60s begins today
- Warmer than average weather continues through Tuesday
- Rain early in the week, especially Monday night
- Breezy and much cooler for the latter half of the work week into
the weekend, with potential for the first snowflakes Wednesday night
into Thursday, though accumulation does not appear likely
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2024
Forecast is in good shape this morning. Satellite shows plentiful
high level clouds across central Indiana as well as upstream of the
area. Some forcing was creating sprinkles across northeastern
Illinois and far northwest Indiana, moving northeast.
Forcing will remain north and west of central Indiana today, so kept
the forecast dry. Filtered sunshine is making it through the high
clouds locally, and webcams show this is true at other locations
around central Indiana.
Thus, still kept partly cloudy conditions across much of the area.
Believe that conditions will vary from partly to mostly cloudy
throughout the day as areas of thicker high clouds move through.
Will keep an eye on it and change to mostly cloudy all areas if
needed.
Warm advection should bring temperatures into the 60s today, even
with the expected sky cover.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 307 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2024
WAA will bring warmer temperatures to central Indiana today thanks
to southerly to southwesterly flow. Satelitte, meanwhile,
currently shows upper clouds increasing in coverage which is
expected to persist through the day. Highs today will range from
the low to mid 60s paired with wind speeds of around 10 mph.
Tonight will be a little more interesting as the surface high
currently sitting to the east of the area tracks southward while a
surface low from the southern plains approaches. This set up will
place the region on the periphery of the warm, moist sector tonight,
with the warm front draped just to the northwest. This will allow
for a low stratus deck to set up late tonight with a chance of light
rain. Also can't rule out patchy in this set up as moisture gets
trapped at the surface and winds become lighter. While moisture will
be coming out of the Gulf, most will stick to close to the low
itself leaving only a few hundredths of accumulation expected
before sunrise Monday. Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s
to low 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 307 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2024
A significant change is on the horizon for central Indiana during
the coming work week.
A strong, rapidly developing low pressure system will move north
northeast out of West Texas into the upper Midwest during the early
portion of the week. This will bring potential for showers early in
the week along with the warm front, with much higher rain chances
Monday night into early Tuesday with the associated cold or occluded
front as the primary warm conveyor belt moves across the area. The
potential rapid occlusion of this low, however, may limit rainfall
amounts across the area as the occlusion begins to cut off/narrow
integrated water vapor transport into the region Monday night,
keeping much more significant IVT further to our south and southeast.
In the wake of this first system, a larger upper low will
consolidate and drop into the Great Lakes and Northeast mid to late
week, though model handling of this feature and associated surface
response has changed significantly in recent model runs, lessening
the already low confidence in specifics later in the forecast period.
Nonetheless, broadly speaking, we can be confident that the latter
part of the work week into the weekend will be dramatically cooler,
likely the coolest temperatures of the young season thus far, with
multiple chances for showers with the upper low Wednesday into
Friday. Given the unseasonable warmth experienced much of the season
thus far, and quite borderline low level/surface wetbulb
temperatures, while the potential exists for the first snowflakes of
the season to fly at times Wednesday night into Thursday, either as
a mix or a few convective snow showers, no accumulation appears
likely at this time.
Below normal temperatures may persist beyond the 7 day period into
the Thanksgiving week.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1155 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2024
Impacts:
- MVFR ceilings developing overnight into Monday morning
- IFR possible at southern sites Monday morning
Discussion:
VFR conditions are expected through 06Z or so then MVFR ceilings
will develop at the southern sites near a warm front. MVFR ceilings
will spread north to the other sites by 12Z or so. IFR is possible
at KHUF/KBMG late tonight into Monday morning.
Southwest winds will prevail during the first half of the period
then winds will eventually become light southeast by 12Z Monday. A
few gusts around 15kt are possible this afternoon. Light rain may
fall late tonight into Monday.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...50
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 17, 11:55 AM EST---------------
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