ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 16, 5:52 AM EST682
FXUS61 KILN 161052
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
552 AM EST Sat Nov 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the region today. Despite the
high, considerable cloudiness will persist. The high will move
east of the area tonight into Sunday. A weak front is forecast
to move into the northern parts of the region Sunday night into
Monday. Unsettled weather is then expected for the remainder of
the workweek as a few weather systems affect the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
For today, surface high pressure and its ridge axis will
gradually shift east into our area while a mid level ridge axis
builds northward. Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery early
this morning depicts plenty of low level cloud cover in the
form of a stratocumulus deck. This moisture/clouds were being
trapped by a subsidence inversion. With weak wind flow
associated with the high, and with short daylight hours, believe
cloud cover will be hard pressed to erode over our forecast
area today. Thus, have trended more pessimistic in the forecast.
Clouds will limit the diurnal rise in temperatures, and thus,
have trended a little cooler than the NBM super ensemble mean.
Most locations will see highs in the lower 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
For tonight, the surface ridge axis will continue to move off
to the east while the mid level ridge axis begins to shift east
as well. Pesky low level moisture in the form of a stratocumulus
deck should begin/start to erode and lift north as the flow
becomes more southerly in that layer. Meanwhile, high clouds
will thicken and spill in from the west. Varying thickness in
cloud cover and surface wind flow will allow for a decent range
in low temperatures. Will forecast lows from the lower 30s far
east to the lower 40s west.
On Sunday, mainly high level clouds will continue to advect
east ahead of the next weather system located to our
west/northwest. Southerly flow between the departed high to our
east and a weak front to our west will combine with filter
sunshine to result in warmer temperatures. Highs will range from
the upper 50s north to the lower 60s south.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The main story for the long term will be a significant storm
system that will bring strong and potentially damaging winds,
much cooler temperatures, and snow showers to the region during
the mid to late week timeframe. Models continue to advertise the
potential for this significant storm system and while details
will certainly still need to be resolved with time, several
relatively consistent model runs by various models leads to
increased confidence that a significant pattern shift will occur
with impacts to the region. Will start to highlight wind gusts
in the hazardous weather outlook given this consistent signal.
To start off the long term time period, a boundary will sag
down into the region Sunday night into Monday morning before
lifting back northward during the day on Monday. This will allow
for the potential for a chance for some light shower activity.
A disturbance Monday night into Tuesday morning will bring more
widespread shower activity to the region.
With southerly flow, temperatures on Tuesday are overall
expected to be the warmest of the long term with highs in the
lower 60s to around 70 degrees.
A low pressure system will intensify rapidly Wednesday and into
Thursday as it moves into the area.
Concern number one. Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.
The rapid deepening and very strong winds associated with this
system along with a very pronounced disturbance moving into the
region will bring the potential for impactful weather to the
area. There will be a convective nature to this and there is
some instability. While there is the potential for some thunder,
even without thunder, there will likely be a line of showers
with enhanced wind gusts and also strong wind gusts just after
the line with additional precipitation. There will be a
prolonged period of gusty winds with this event. Increased winds
quite a bit with this system and once details resolve, wind
gusts will likely need to be increased even more in certain time
periods. At least advisory level winds are a distinct
possibility.
Concern number two. Temperatures will fall quickly as the cold
air rushes in Wednesday night. Wet bulb temperatures and thermal
structures are supportive of a period where there will be a
transition over to snow showers across at least a portion of the
area. If that occurs, this will be a heavy wet snow. Thursday
will feel rather cool with wind chill values in the teens and
twenties at times.
With the upper level low nearby, precipitation chances will
continue through the remainder of the long term along with below
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For today, a surface ridge axis will gradually shift east while
a mid level ridge axis builds northward into the region. Have
kept a more pessimistic outlook in terms of keeping ceilings in
longer at the terminals as lower level moisture will remain
trapped beneath a subsidence inversion. Ceiling heights will
range between 2 and 3 kft. Visibilities will remain VFR. Winds
will start out light northerly or calm, then they will veer to
the east and southeast around 5 knots.
For tonight, the surface ridge axis will continue to move off
to the east while the mid level ridge axis begins to shift east
as well. Pesky low level moisture should begin to erode and lift
north as the flow becomes more southerly. Meanwhile, high
clouds will thicken and spill in from the west. Ceilings should
gradually return back to VFR. Visibilities will remain VFR.
Winds will vary between southeast and south between 5 and 10
knots.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are likely Tuesday into Wednesday.
Winds may gust to 30 knots on Wednesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Hickman
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 16, 5:52 AM EST---------------
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