LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 16, 11:31 PM CST ...New AVIATION...695
FXUS64 KLIX 170531
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1131 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 230 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024
Upper ridging from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to the Great Lakes,
with an upper trough from the Dakotas to southern California this
afternoon. At the surface, high pressure was centered just east
of the area. Low pressure over North Dakota had a cold front
extending southward to the Texas-New Mexico border. Winds had
turned onshore this afternoon, and moisture is increasing across
the area. Dew points had rebounded to the lower and middle 60s
across the area with temperatures generally in the 70s.
First 36 hours of the forecast should be comparatively quiet, as
there is really not much moisture above 5,000 feet. We'll have
clouds around, but the chance of significant precipitation is
minuscule. There should be enough air movement to preclude
significant amounts of fog during the overnight hours.
Overnight lows the next two nights will be warmer for much of the
area than what we've seen the last couple mornings. High
temperatures likely to top out around 80 again tomorrow.
Coastal Flood Advisory will remain in place for tonight's high
tide cycle, with advisories also anticipated for at least the
following 2 nights. Highest water levels would likely occur on
Monday night's high tide cycle, but not high enough to justify
warnings.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 230 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024
Main concerns for the work week will be the threat of strong
thunderstorms and heavy to excessive rainfall in the Monday
night/Tuesday timeframe.
The upper ridge by Monday evening should extend from the Florida
Straits to Lake Superior, with a strong shortwave moving out of
the southern Rockies into Kansas. this will serve to funnel
abundant moisture from dissipating Tropical Storm Sara northward
to the central Gulf Coast region. Precipitable water values less
than 1 inch will be in place through midday Monday, but rapidly
increase to from 1.8 inches west to 2.25 inches east.
Climatologically, by the time we reach mid-November, anything
above 2.00 inches is pretty much top of the chart. As the
shortwave lifts toward Lake Superior Tuesday morning, it will push
a cold front into the local area with a secondary surface low
somewhere near the Louisiana coast. Rain and scattered
thunderstorms will develop rapidly Monday afternoon and evening
and spread northeastward ahead of the front. While shear would be
sufficient for severe weather, instability is expected to be
rather weak, limiting the severe weather threat. Heavy rainfall
will be the greater concern, since it's likely to occur in a 6 to
12 hour period. Currently, expectations would be for 1 to 2 inches
of rain west of Interstate 55, and 2 to 4 inches east of that
line. There is at least some potential for even higher amounts
along the Mississippi coast. If current trends continue, a Flood
Watch may be necessary in later forecasts for Monday night through
midday Tuesday for portions of the area.
As the cold front exits the area on Tuesday, drier air will move
in, with temperatures dropping off to around normal for Wednesday.
The upper trough that will be over the Great Lakes on Wednesday
will have a strong shortwave drop into it's base Wednesday night
into Thursday. This will bring a reinforcing surge of cold and dry
air to the area late Wednesday night through the end of the week.
Northshore locations could see overnight lows drop to around 40 by
Thursday morning, and even a few upper 30s won't be out of the
question, especially Friday morning. High temperatures Thursday
and Friday aren't likely to get much past the mid 60s. With dew
points in the 30s by that point, breezy north winds will likely
make it feel even cooler. Local residents will be experiencing
cold weather at that point that they haven't had to deal with
since mid-March.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024
The 00z sounding indicates that boundary layer conditions are a
bit more favorable for low stratus to develop at all of the
terminals this morning as winds are weaker than the forecast
models projected. This is very evident by an extensive low stratus
deck around 3000 feet that has formed in the past hour at several
terminals. This low stratus deck will continue to build down as
the inversion deepens, and most terminals will see a broken to
overcast deck ranging near 1500 feet by 11z. Fortunately, winds
should remain elevated enough to prohibit fog formation outside
of the more sheltered MCB terminal. Even there, patchy fog could
briefly reduced visibilities to around 5 miles at times, but
consistent fog is not expected. After 15z, increased thermal
mixing of the boundary layer will break up the low stratus deck
leading to prevailing VFR conditions at all of the terminals
through the end of the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024
A weak inversion at MCB will develop after 09z as boundary layer
winds fall to just below 10 knots, and this will allow for the
development of an MVFR stratus deck around 1500 feet. Some very
patchy light fog could also impact MCB during this time, but do
not expected dense fog to be a concern. The inversion will quickly
mix out by 15z as temperatures warm, and a return to VFR
conditions is expected. The remainder of the terminals will
remain too mixed in the boundary layer due to boundary layer flow
in excess of 10 knots to support any type of inversion formation,
and have VFR conditions continuing through the end of the
forecast period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 230 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024
Will carry Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines for some of the
open waters overnight tonight as onshore flow begins to
strengthen. Advisories will likely be necessary at some point
Sunday night into Monday over at least the western marine zones.
Those advisories will likely be issued later tonight or tomorrow
morning. Likely to be Exercise Caution headlines or Small Craft
Advisories for much of the work week for some or all of the
waters, with some potential for gales at midweek.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 57 77 60 79 / 0 0 0 20
BTR 63 82 66 84 / 0 0 0 30
ASD 60 79 64 81 / 0 0 0 20
MSY 65 80 68 82 / 0 0 10 20
GPT 63 78 67 79 / 0 0 0 10
PQL 57 81 63 83 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for LAZ069-070-076-
078.
GM...None.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for MSZ086.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...RW
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 16, 11:31 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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