JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 16, 3:26 PM EST246
FXUS63 KJKL 162026
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
326 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures will be near normal through Saturday, before
warming to around 10 degrees above normal for the first half of
next week.
- Rain chances return late Monday night into Tuesday and continue
through the rest of the work week.
- A colder pattern arrives Wednesday afternoon and night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 327 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
The afternoon surface analysis shows that high pressure has crested
across the Upper Ohio Valley and near the Great Lakes region. There
is good agreement on this area of high pressure pushing east, with
the mid-level ridging shifting east too. We have seen good erosion
of the pesky stratus deck and now much of the Lake Cumberland and
Cumberland Valley regions are under mostly sunny to sunny skies this
afternoon. This will continue to erode from southwest to northeast
through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. Given
some will see a more diurnally limited day we could see this
translate to some more prevalent fog and or stratus through the
night. The latest forecast soundings including HREF mean forecast
soundings show this potential, but still some concern as to how this
shakes out. Given this did expand the fog some, but still opted to
kept it more confined to the river valleys. Overnight lows could
also be tricky given the fog potential and even some higher clouds.
Therefore did raise them a bit to better match this trend. However,
this will have to be watched through the evening to see how these
trend through the evening into tonight.
The high pressure is expected to push east and southerly flow will
kick in at the surface. This return flow will make it quite a bit
warmer with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 60s for most
locations. The will be under mostly sunny skies. Monday night, will
be another tricky one with lower clouds showing up once again in the
forecast sounding data. Therefore, wondering how much of split we
will see in the overnight lows and right now they might be a little
on the strong side with low to mid 40s in the valleys and upper 40s
to around 50 on the ridges. However, it also could be a night where
we drop off in the evening before maybe rising some overnight. This
will have to be monitored, as even some high clouds will work in
from the upper level trough digging into the Southern Plains.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 441 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
The forecast period begins with upper-level ridging over the area.
At the surface, high pressure will be dominate over much of the
southeastern CONUS. As a result of surface high pressure being in
place, temperatures Monday will climb into the mid to upper-60s with
a few places climbing into the low-70s. However, to the north of the
forecast area, an upper-level trough is pivoting through the Upper
Great Lakes. At the surface, a weak cold front is forecast to extend
back toward the Central Plains but will remain north of the Ohio
River and transition into a stationary boundary that the next next
feature will ride along for Tuesday. While all this is occurring, an
upper-level trough is forecast to eject out of the Baja California
region into the southern Plains. This trough will quickly eject
through the Central Plains and be over the Great Lakes by Monday
night. At the surface, southwesterly flow ahead of the cold front
will bring temperatures up to the upper-60s to low-70s. However,
with the speed of the system, increasing showers are expected to
move into the JKL CWA by early Tuesday morning and persist through
the day Tuesday into Wednesday. The Tuesday system is forecast to
largely stall out and get wrapped up in another approaching system
that's quickly moving across the CONUS through the day Tuesday. The
third shortwave is expected to be the strongest of the active
pattern and will get stronger as it approaches the Commonwealth for
Wednesday. This third surface low will push the stalled cold front
through the forecast area as it pivots to the northeast toward the
Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. A brief lull in precipitation is
expected overnight Wednesday but as the comma head pivots back into
the region, PoP chances will increase again for Thursday and persist
through the remainder of the week. This increase in PoP for Thursday
has become a little more interesting compared to yesterday's model
suite. Guidance has come in colder compared to this time yesterday
and both deterministic and their associated ensembles are beginning
to hint at the first possible snow flakes across eastern Kentucky as
those backside showers will occur in an environment that's largely
cold enough to support snow. However, there's still some ensemble
members out there that think this will be rain but deterministic
soundings and colder trends lean toward possible rain-snow mix
Thursday before it warms up above freezing. The best chances for
snow does appear to be the high terrain along the Virginia border
where low-level temperatures will be supportive of snow for the
duration of the event. PoP chances will continue through the day
Friday with more rain-snow mix showers being possible before warming
back above freezing. Through the day Friday into overnight hours,
showers will begin to dissipate from southwest to northeast as the
system moves off to the northeast and high pressure builds back into
the region.
Overall the forecast period will be highlighted by a pattern change
that's largely climatologically expected for this time of year.
Before this system arrives, high pressure will exist with above
average temperatures. However, the aforementioned pattern shift will
bring rain showers through the remainder of the week. Showers are
expected mainly for the lower elevations but as mid to low level
temperatures fall, rain may switch to snow on the high elevation of
the southeastern mountains. Temperatures will fall from above
average highs to more seasonal levels for the remainder of the
forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
Most sites are starting the period MVFR, with a pesky stratus
deck that has been stuck underneath an inversion for quite
sometime now. The good news is we are seeing this erode at SME and
LOZ at this afternoon hour and expect this to continue to erode
through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening. This
will take all sites back to VFR this afternoon and evening. We
could see mostly river valley fog tonight given the diurnally
limited day for most. That said, this is not expected to affect
the TAF sites at this time. We are seeing variable winds at less
than 5 knots and this would mix out through the afternoon out of
the east in most cases.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...DJ
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 16, 3:26 PM EST---------------
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