IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 13, 12:51 PM EST818
FXUS63 KIWX 131751
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1251 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Increasing clouds this afternoon with a chance of showers
late day. Steady rains overspread the area tonight and lingers
into Thursday afternoon.
- Temperatures remain above normal through the forecast period.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2024
Potent shortwave disturbance over CO this morning will push rapidly
ewd through Thu. Emerging GOMEX return moisture current seen in GOES
imagery will advect quickly newd into the OH valley by late day yet
some of this will no doubt get intercepted within developing mid MS
valley/lower OH valley convection. Nevertheless deepening forced
ascent driven by favorable upper jet will spread decent rain across
the cwa overnight before giving way to showers Thu beneath moist
cold pocket aloft.
Low amplitude ridging builds back in post sys later Fri into
Sun ahead of weak nrn stream wave streaking through the James
Bay region. Guidance blend looks way overdone with pops late Sun
and will retract some based on latest 00Z deterministic look.
Thereafter attention shifts to the southwest on developing bowling
ball and its northeast ejection toward the upper midwest early next
week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024
The theme of the previous aviation forecast has been left intact
with deteriorating conditions heading into this evening and
especially into the overnight hours.
An upper level trough across the central/southern Plains will
shift eastward into Thursday morning. A zone of strong moisture
transport working north from the Gulf of Mexico will continue to
stream northward into this evening, although best low level
moisture will likely be cut off across the OH/TN Valleys as low
level winds veer. Rain showers have already become widespread
across southern IL and western TN/KY this afternoon. These rain
showers will overspread terminals later this evening with an
expected rapid deterioration from VFR to lower end MVFR late
evening/early overnight. Trend to IFR and possibly LIFR
conditions still appears reasonable late tonight into Thursday
morning, with little opportunity for notable improvement through
end of this forecast valid period. Most of the rainfall should
occur through 12Z but light rain/pockets of drizzle will
continue into early Thursday afternoon. Fairly strong gradient
into this evening will be somewhat cancelled out in terms of
magnitude of wind gusts by limited mixing heights. This should
support gusts into the 15 to 20 knot range. Pre-frontal low
level jet may support LLWS conditions across NW Indiana late
evening/early overnight, but this setup appears marginal and
relatively short-lived.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...Marsili
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 13, 12:51 PM EST---------------
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