JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 16, 12:47 AM EST677
FXUS63 KJKL 160547
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1247 AM EST Sat Nov 16 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures will be near normal through Saturday, before
trending to around 10 degrees above normal for the first half
of next week.
- Rain chances return late Monday night into Tuesday and continue
through the rest of the work week.
- A colder pattern arrives later next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
Patchy drizzle continues across parts of the area, based on radar.
Otherwise, changes with the late evening update were to primarily
update the forecast grids using the latest observations as the
initialization.
UPDATE Issued at 700 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
Minimal changes are needed for the early evening update, with
drizzle gradually diminishing over the next few hours, lingering
longest toward Pike County and vicinity. The forecast grids were
initialized using the most recent observations.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 350 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
The 20Z surface analysis has high pressure over the upper/mid
Mississipi Valley. Regional satellite shows low clouds and stratus
in place across the Midwest, with northerly winds steering some
of that moisture into eastern Kentucky. There is just enough of an
upslope component across our far eastern zones to generate some
patchy drizzle, or possibly light rain late this afternoon. This
precipitation will gradually taper off as evening approaches and
winds slacken and shift away from favorable upslope directions.
Clouds will take longer to clear across the area, entrenched over
eastern Kentucky until tomorrow when they will erode through the
day from south to north as flow begins to veer increasingly out of
the east-southeast.
The remainder of the short term is uneventful. Overall, sensible
weather features dry conditions and seasonable temperatures.
Clouds will tend to moderate overnight lows, with most guidance
suggesting low to mid 40s for lows by tomorrow morning. We should
see at least some sunshine tomorrow as clouds gradually thin out
and dissipate, again from south to north. With our more southern
counties (closer to the KY/TN state line) clearing first, they
stand to gain the most from a warming sun through the day, with
temperatures climbing into the lower 60s. Further north, afternoon
highs will likely only make it into the mid to upper 50s. All in
all, tomorrow appears to be a typical late fall day with
seasonable temperatures and with everyone eventually getting at
least a peek at some sunshine. Additional mid/high clouds transit
the region tomorrow night. However, this moisture is not expected
to keep temperatures from bottoming out in the mid to upper 30s
for most locations by Sunday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 451 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
The models are in good agreement with an amplified long wave
pattern to dominate over the CONUS. Detail differences for smaller
scale features and the corresponding model spread does continue,
especially by the latter portion of the next work week.
A seasonably strong cutoff low will start out over the Baja
California within the southern stream, while broad troughing is
maintained over the western half of Canada, with associated short
wave energy traversing the Upper Midwest and northern Plains.
Meanwhile, deeper short wave energy will be inbound across the
Pacific Northwest. Ridging will be aligned from southeastern
Canada through the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
The upper level low within the southern stream will swing
northeast, with a negatively-tilted short wave trough moving
through the southern Plains and into the mid-Mississippi Valley
through Monday evening. At the surface, strong cyclogenesis will
take place, with a sub-990 mb low curling from the southern to the
central Plains, allowing a warm front to lift northeast across
the Ohio Valley through Tuesday. Meanwhile, short wave energy
moving in over the central/northern Rockies will deepen, with a
cutoff low likely emerging over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest.
This will generate new cyclogenesis across the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley region through the middle of next week, but the extent,
intensity, and timing are still uncertain at this point, given the
model spread. The resultant deep trough will continue to expand
through the eastern third of the CONUS through next Friday. Either
way, an unsettled pattern with a significant drop in temperatures
will result across eastern Kentucky.
Sensible weather will feature temperatures climbing to around 10
degrees above normal through early next week, with highs ranging
from the mid 60s on Sunday, to the upper 60s to lower 70s by
Tuesday. Lows will modify from the 40s to the 50s through that
timeframe. Rain chances will be on the rise Monday night into
Tuesday, with the nearing warm front. On Wednesday, breezier
west to west southwest winds will engage in the wake of a passing
cold front, with PoPs remaining the good chance range (50%).
Temperatures will drop off into the mid to upper 30s by Thursday
morning, with continued blustery west to west southwest winds.
Wind gusts could top 30 mph at times in the Bluegrass, as well as
along and west of I-75. Highs on Thursday will also be about 20
degrees colder compared to Wednesday Rain chances will be likely
(50-70%) as the deeper trough and post-frontal surface trough
barrels through the region. Some snow chances will be a decent bet
for at least the higher elevations of southeastern Kentucky at
Thursday into Friday; however, will await further model continuity
before committing to anything more for now.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
MVFR conditions prevailed at the start of the TAF period and are
expected to persist well into the day on Saturday. Patchy light
drizzle cannot be ruled out as well through sunrise. Models
continue to struggle with timing of clearing (or partial clearing)
skies from the south on Saturday. Given the strength of the
subsidence inversion aloft, maintained a pessimistic outlook and
kept low clouds lingering well into the afternoon, even with low-
level flow becoming more easterly and southeasterly. Variable to
perhaps northeasterly winds overnight will remain light at less
than 5 kts. Winds will remain around 5 kts or less through the day
tomorrow, with an increasingly easterly tendency, which may
induce a light downslope nature which would help to clear skies.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...GEERTSON/CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 16, 12:47 AM EST---------------
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