JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 14, 6:23 PM EST703
FXUS63 KJKL 142323
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
623 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures will be near normal through Saturday, before
trending to near 10 degrees above normal for the first half of
next week.
- Rain chances return late Monday night into Tuesday.
- A cooler pattern arrives by late next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 600 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
Early evening update is out to remove any mention of thunder from
the Hazardous Weather Outlook, and also to fine-tune PoPs based on
latest observed and model trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 248 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
We are seeing an upper level low and occluded front continue to
work across the Ohio Valley this afternoon. This has sparked off
additional showers this afternoon, with some breaks leading to
steeper lapse rates. We have not seen much in the way of thunder
given the lack of ice, with more signal showing up in areas mainly
north of I-64. Given this focused the chances of thunder through
the afternoon in these area. The shower activity will subside
through the late afternoon and early evening once we loose the
daytime heating. The forecast soundings including HREF driven data
then transition this to more of a low stratus and drizzle
scenario through the night into Friday morning and with little
spread. This as low level moisture gets stuck underneath an
inversion aloft. Therefore went more pessimistic on cloud cover
through the night.
Friday, an area of high pressure is well forecast to progress
eastward into the Ohio Valley. This should help to dry us out
some but some data indicates that we could see the drizzle
continuing a little longer. However, we will at least keep the
low stratus around through much if not all day, with the
inversion strengthening through the day. Given this once again
kept the sky a little higher through the day than NBM. In light of
this, also lowered afternoon highs just a little, with afternoon
highs in the low to mid 50s.
Friday night, there remains some concern that we keep this stratus
deck into Friday night, with some disagreement showing up in the
CAMs. Also, the inversion will continue to strengthen through the
evening and overnight and this would further push this stratus
downward. Even so, kept some fog in there Friday night because
any clearing could result in river valley fog at a minimum, but
the overall confidence is low. Also, if we don't clear expect
fairly uniform overnight lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 336 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
While the long term forecast period opens with sunnier skies on
Saturday, the amplified nature of the current synoptics aloft means
that this reprieve from grey November is only temporary. The
leftover stratus deck from Friday should gradually thin/dissipate
from southwest to northeast throughout the morning and early
afternoon hours on Saturday. By Saturday afternoon, an upper level
ridge will be centered over the region, and the flow aloft will
shift towards a more westerly orientation. At the surface, a high
pressure system will move into the Ohio River Valley on Saturday.
These features combine to produce clearer skies, more efficient
diurnal mixing, and a subtle warming trend for Saturday. Expect
temperatures to approach 60 degrees in locations that clear more
quickly, but highs will be in the mid 50s in our cloudier
northeastern counties. On Saturday night, the clearer conditions
will favor efficient radiational cooling and our forecast area's
conventional ridge-valley temperature splits. While ridges will
remain in the 40s, sheltered and shaded valleys may reach the mid
30s overnight. Patchy valley fog appears likely given the overhead
positioning of the ridging, although less moisture will be present
than there was on Friday night.
By Sunday, the aforementioned features will have propagated further
east into the northern Appalachians. As a result, flow throughout
the atmospheric column will shift to a southwesterly orientation.
These winds will advect warmer air and modest amounts of moisture
into the area. Sunday's sensible weather will be marked by
noticeably warmer temperatures in the mid to upper 60s, but with a
return to at least partly cloudy skies. These advective processes
will continue into Monday, with afternoon highs approaching 70
degrees, despite a further increase in cloud coverage. Confidence
continues to increase in a drier daytime and evening forecast on
Monday, with models now in consensus that a northern stream
disturbance will remain displaced from the forecast area. As such,
the attention shifts towards the middle of the week, when a serious
of vigorous troughs will eject out of the Rockies.
On Tuesday, the first of these troughs will eject out of the Ozarks
and into the Upper Midwest. The aforementioned ridging will remain
parked over the southeastern part of the country and thus block this
primary trough from progressing further east into the Ohio River
Valley. Around the same time, a second trough will emerge off the
Southern Rockies and then phase with the first low to create an
anomalously deep closed upper level low. Confidence is fairly high
that these features will evolve in this manner, but the various
pieces of forecast guidance resolve the timing, strength, and exact
positioning of the resultant closed low quite differently.
Here in Eastern Kentucky, this set-up correlates to a more active
weather pattern. Rain chances will return to the forecast late
Monday night into Tuesday and then linger around for much of next
week. The exact details regarding the phasing and evolution of this
upper level low will play a significant part in determining
convective potential and precipitation types through the end of next
week. At this temporal range, it is important to not read too much
into one single model run when it comes to forecasting these
details, so thunder and winter precipitation types have been
accordingly left out of the grids for now. Model signals and
atmospheric teleconnections do point towards a cooler and more
active weather pattern next week, but model spread is too high to
provide specifics at the time of this forecast's issuance.
Interested parties are encouraged to stay tuned to future forecasts
as higher-resolution model data comes in and the guidance suite
comes to a consensus over the next few days.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 621 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
Conditions to begin the period range from VFR at KSME to MVFR and
IFR at the remaining TAF sites. Cigs will generally lower through
the evening and overnight as high pressure aloft builds in and
strengthens an inversion in the lower levels, with fog a concern
at ridgetop sites such as KJKL. Given this expect only limited
improvements to cigs into MVFR category for much if not all the
afternoon period Friday as mixing will be limited. Light and
variable winds are expected through the period as a result of the
strengthening inversion and limited mixing.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 14, 6:23 PM EST---------------
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