CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 14, 9:56 AM EST765
FXUS61 KCLE 141456
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
956 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system tracks through tonight into Thursday. High
pressure returns late Friday into the early part of the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
925 AM Update...
Rain continues, fairly light. Roughly a half inch across the
region, and those that aren't there yet should end up close to
that mark. Made some minor POP adjustments, but forecast is
holding overall.
Previous Discussion...
A mild and dreary weather pattern will be the theme for the near
term period with overcast skies and periods of rain/drizzle. A
Wind Advisory remains in effect for northern Erie County, PA
with isolated wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph possible into mid-
morning.
For this morning, rain is beginning to spread north and
northeast into the region and will eventually encompass the
entire area by late morning and early afternoon. Still have a
very dry air mass in place across the eastern half of the area,
evident by dew points in the teens, though low-level moisture
appears to be quickly arriving into the region across the west,
with sites beginning to report measurable rainfall with relative
humidity values above 90%. Will continue to monitor wind gusts
across northern Erie County, PA over the next several hours,
though time is running out for the modest LLJ to produce higher
surface wind gusts with rain approaching from the southwest.
Aloft, an upper-level trough is expected to weaken as it
becomes a closed low across the Ohio Valley by later this
afternoon. Low-level moisture will remain elevated throughout
today, with widespread moderate rain this morning becoming light
rain and/or drizzle by this evening and overnight, evident by
light QPF probabilities in the HREF. Anticipate the cloudy and
dreary weather to continue on Friday as a surface trough rounds
the backside of the exiting upper-level low.
Temperatures will remain fairly steady through the near term
period with the moist air mass in place. Highs in the upper
40s to lower 50s today will fall into the mid to upper 40s
tonight, followed by lower 50s on Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Lake effect cloud covers and isolated, light rain showers may linger
Friday night before dissipating through the day Saturday as an upper-
level ridge and surface level high pressure build in. Temperatures
are likely to remain near normal Friday night through Saturday night
with partly cloudy skies gradually improving, though clouds in north-
central Ohio could be a little stubborn to dissipate. Sunday will be
a few degrees warmer as high pressure departs to the east and warm
air advection ensures with south to southwest winds. An upper-level
trough begins moving across the Great Lakes Sunday night, with low
chance PoPs introduced Sunday night (20-50%).
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some rain may continue into Monday morning before the weak cold
front crosses the region and high pressure briefly builds in Monday
through Monday night. Despite the cold front, temperatures shouldn't
change too much with highs Monday afternoon still expected to be a
few degrees above normal.
For Tuesday/Wednesday, an upper-level trough and surface low
pressure system build into the Great Plains region, gradually
approaching the Great Lakes region. In general, expect some rain
chances with continues slightly above normal temperatures during
this period. There is some spread in model guidance, particularly
with the amplification and timing of the approaching upper-level
trough. Should be some light rain that move in from the west on
Tuesday before dissipating as precip become too displace from
synoptic forcing. By Wednesday, good deal of spread in synoptic-
scale features with GEFS suggesting near guaranteed precip chances
(as upper-level cut-off low meanders eastward) and ENS diminishing
precip chances as the cut-off low dives south and slows down.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Mixed-bag of VFR, MVFR, and IFR across the area this morning,
associated with both low ceilings and vsbys from rain. Further
deterioration to Non-VFR conditions are expected this morning
and will persist through the TAF period. Lower confidence in IFR
conditions exists at CLE/ERI as modest southeast winds may
limit lower ceilings, at least initially. A brief period of
heavier <2sm rain is possible this morning and have reflected
this in tempo groups. Otherwise, drizzle/mist is expected to
fill in behind the initial surge of precipitation later this
afternoon and evening, so think widespread Non-VFR vsbys are
likely to persist through the TAF period.
Winds are generally out of the southeast this morning, 10 to 15
knots with periodic higher gusts of 25 to 30 knots. The highest
gusts of 35 to perhaps 40 knots will be found at ERI through
mid-morning associated with southeast downsloping winds.
Otherwise, southeast winds will remain elevated through much of
today, 10 to 15 knots with periodic gusts of 20 to 25 knots.
Winds will diminish slightly to around 10 knots or less later
this evening and begin to favor a west to northwest direction
overnight, around 5 knots.
Outlook...Non-VFR expected in periods of drizzle and/or fog
Friday and Friday night. Non-VFR possible in fog Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Non-VFR possible again in rain showers
Sunday night into Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Southerly winds of 10 to 20 knots continue this morning, with
stronger wind speeds expected away from the shoreline. These winds
should diminish by the afternoon, though there is a chance for
stronger winds to persist in the Erie, PA nearshore zone as
downsloping southeast winds continues into the evening hours.
Weakening low pressure passes to the south tonight, with winds
becoming 10-15 knots out of the north Friday into Friday night. High
pressure builds in with weaker winds on Saturday and Saturday night.
As high pressure departs to the east, south winds develop on Sunday
becoming southwest Sunday night. Stronger southwest winds of 15 to
25 knots may necessitate the need for a small craft advisory during
this period.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for
LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn/26
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Saunders
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 14, 9:56 AM EST---------------
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