ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 12, 9:50 AM EST195
FXUS61 KILN 121450
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
950 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the Great Lakes today, with dry
conditions prevailing across the region through Wednesday. The
next system brings rain back into the area Wednesday night into
Thursday. Near normal temperatures are expected through the
upcoming week, with drier conditions returning later Friday into
the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Stratocumulus deck forming in a shallow layer of moisture
circulating around Great Lakes high pressure is advancing slowly
south. The progress of this cloud deck is slowing as it moves
into drier air, with locations near the Ohio River remaining
sunny through this morning and possibly this afternoon. But
skies will be mostly cloudy for many locales N of the OH Rvr
late morning through mid afternoon, which will help keep temps a
bit cooler in the post- frontal environment. Highs should top
out in the upper 40s (N of I-70) to the lower 50s (near/S of the
OH Rvr) amidst a steady light NE breeze.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Tranquil conditions continue through the short term period as
the sfc high drifts further away from the local area, allowing
for LL flow to become more southeasterly by Wednesday. The
approach of a fairly strong/sharp S/W by late Wednesday will
allow for increasing mid/high clouds through the day. However,
the pcpn chances should hold off until just after the conclusion
of the short term period, so expect that most, if not all,
locales remain dry through sunset Wednesday evening.
It'll be another seasonably chilly night tonight amidst mostly
clear skies and light easterly flow, with temps generally
bottoming out in the upper 20s in central/south-central OH to
the mid 30s in the Tri-State. Strengthening southeasterly sfc
flow by Wednesday afternoon will help temps rebound to around 60
degrees by late in the day, despite the thickening mid/high
cloud cover.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A low pressure system and upper level shortwave will be approaching
the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The low will lift a
warm front through the Ohio Valley bringing widespread rainfall
especially before sunrise. Rain coverage may decrease after sunrise
as the low level jet weakens despite the chance for showers
persisting through the day ahead of an approaching cold front. Rain
chances then drop off gradually behind the cold front Thursday
evening into the overnight.
High pressure builds into the Ohio Valley from the west Friday
through Saturday night bringing cooler temperatures and dry weather.
Rain chances increase once again to start the work week when the
next cold front may move through the region.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The clear skies that had evolved through the first part of the
overnight period are being replaced by borderline MVFR/VFR
stratocu working back in from the NE, which will continue to
expand locally through the morning into the afternoon. The CIGs
should generally range between about 2500-3500ft and will
scatter out past 22z as the best coverage continues to drift to
the SW toward KCVG/KLUK. As such, clearing conditions will
evolve from NE to SW late in the daytime before skies trend
mostly clear area-wide toward 00z. Some thickening cirrus will
overspread the region from the SW toward the end of the period
and beyond.
NNE winds around 8-10kts will increase subtly during the daytime
to 10-12kts, going more out of the NE. Winds will go more
easterly at 5-7kts toward daybreak Wednesday.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGs and MVFR VSBYs are likely Wednesday
night into Thursday. MVFR CIGs may linger into Friday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC/Coniglio
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...KC
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 12, 9:50 AM EST---------------
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