JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 13, 12:11 PM EST221
FXUS63 KJKL 131711 AAB
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1211 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An approaching cold front will bring a shot of wetting rains to
eastern Kentucky from tonight into Thursday evening.
- Temperatures will be near normal through Friday, with the
exception of an uptick to 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this
afternoon.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1211 PM EST WED NOV 13 2024
Downslope southeast flow combined with a dry airmass (PW analyzed
at 0.25 inches in eastern Pike County to 0.45 inches near Lake
Cumberland) is readily leading to warming and temperatures
running a bit above forecast across the south and southeast.
Hourly temperatures and high temperatures were adjusted upward
accordingly.
UPDATE Issued at 625 AM EST WED NOV 13 2024
No significant changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of
the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids noting some hints
of river valley fog in the far southeast. These minor adjustments
have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 410 AM EST WED NOV 13 2024
08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure off to the northeast of
Kentucky while fairly deep low pressure approaches from the west.
This system is bringing a trailing cold front and a leading warm
front out of the Plains - due to impact the JKL CWA later
tonight. Currently, under mainly just some passing high clouds
another chilly night of healthy radiational cooling is underway.
This has resulted in temperatures varying from the lower 30s in
the most sheltered valleys to the low and mid 40s on the ridges
and in some of the more open areas of the western Cumberland
Valley. Meanwhile, amid light and variable to easterly winds,
dewpoints are in the low to mid 30s for most of the area. Despite
temperatures falling to the dewpoints in the valleys there has
been little evidence of fog in the obs or on satellite, though
there are likely some patches near the larger tributaries and
lakes.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in pretty
good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast even as the mid levels will be dynamic. They all depict
ridging riding east today as a full latitude trough digs through
the Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi River Valley. This will
mean a period of strong southwest mid level flow through Kentucky
ahead of the trough with some fairly weak lead impulses passing by
the area into tonight. Height falls will commence tonight while
the core of the trough's energy shifts into this part of the state
on Thursday. The trough itself powers east through the Ohio
Valley on Thursday with its 5h axis passing the JKL CWA during the
afternoon. Given the still relatively small spread among the
models have again favored the NBM as the starting point for the
forecast grids with adjustments mainly to add in CAMS details for
PoPs from late this afternoon through Thursday.
Sensible weather features a warmer (after a chilly start) and
more breezy day with increasing clouds ahead of an approaching
rather wet weather system. The timing of this feature's warm
front will limit its potential for thunder in eastern Kentucky -
arriving this evening once the instability from daylight heating
has mostly dissipated with only a modicum of upper level support.
This will not prevent some higher rain rates later tonight,
though, with the potential for pockets of heavy rain from the
heavier showers. The steadier showers will start to break up and
move east Thursday morning, with the pre-frontal trough-line
in advance of the system's cold front arriving that afternoon
along with the colder air aloft. At this point there probably is
the best chance for some thunder as limited instability should be
around along with the better upper level support. Have left this
out of the forecast for now, but it bears watching as the future
CAMs hone in on the situation here Thursday afternoon. Regardless,
it looks like most of the area will see soaking rains that will do
wonders for cutting our current wildfire threat at least for a few
days.
The changes to the NBM starting point did consist of adjusting
the hourly T grids for more terrain distinction early this
morning. The main adjustments, though, focused on the PoPs and Wx
grids per the latest CAMs guidance concerning placement and
timing this evening through Thursday afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 AM EST WED NOV 13 2024
The extended period will start off with a trough of low pressure
move out of the eastern Great Lakes and the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. This trough will push through the Mid-Atlantic region and
southeastern CONUS Friday and Friday night. Further to the west, a
large high pressure system, both aloft and at the surface, will be
in place over the Mississippi Valley, southern Plains, and western
Tennessee Valley. Another large low pressure system will be situated
over the west coast and Pacific Northwest and west of the Rocky
Mountains.
Numerous rain showers will be present to start things off Thursday
night, but will steadily taper off throughout the night into early
Friday morning. The rain will continue moving off to our east on
Friday, and should finally exit to our east by early Friday evening.
A large ridge of high pressure will spread into our region Friday
through Saturday, and will bring dry and warmer weather to eastern
Kentucky over the weekend. Another low pressure system is then
forecast to move in behind the departing ridge Monday night and
Tuesday. As this system continues moving east, we will see an
increase in cloud cover Monday night, with rain showers moving into
the area late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Another cold
front extending south from the parent low, which will be moving
across the northern CONUS and through the Great Lakes, will bring
increasing shower activity to the area Tuesday and Tuesday night. At
this time, it appears that there will not be sufficient instability
to allow any storms to occur with either system.
Temperatures will start off below normal to begin the period, with
highs in the upper 50s expected for most locations Friday and
Saturday. Temperatures should begin to warm to above normal values
in the upper 60s Sunday through Tuesday, as winds shift around to
the south. No weather hazards expected in the extended at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EST WED NOV 13 2024
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through at least the
first half of the aviation forecast period as a ridge of high
pressure continues its shift eastward. Showers move into the area
this evening ahead of a fast moving weather system with the main
threat from 06 through 12Z Thursday when CIGs and VIS drop into
MVFR and then to IFR by dawn - for many sites. Fog is expected to
be found in the river valleys through 13Z this morning with local
reductions to MVFR or IFR, though TAF sites will not be affected.
Winds should be light and variable for the first part of the
morning before an uptick from the southeast at 5 to 10 kts occurs
by the afternoon. The winds will stay up through the night from
the south southeast.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 13, 12:11 PM EST---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
